nihonto ebay seller - xxx

[werner]

Hi,

 

Just wondered if anybody else noticed the following:

 

xxx is selling a lot of Japanese swords on ebay....every time one bits on it - suddenly a "private listing - bidders' identities protected" person appears and drives the price up like mad. Once in a while you come across that somebody bits with a private id - but in xxx case it is with every single item and it drives the price up like mad - check every single one of his items currently on offer and you will find it happens with each of them....a coincidence = having a laugh.....

 

Jock

[sanjuro]

Jock.

 

xxx are not alone in this apparent practice of using a schill to bid their items up. There are at least four other regular ebay sellers that seem to do it on a regular basis. I say seem to, because its a damn hard thing to prove. One of those things that you know, but would have a devil of a job capturing any evidence to prove it. Its not exactly a new thing either. The current economic situation seems to have made this practice more common and less subtle in recent months. One expects it of the lesser dealers I guess, but the otherwise reputable dealers are equally prone to the temptations of profiteering.

I buy very little and very seldom on ebay, but even I have noticed this practice becoming more common. Its a shame, but I guess its inevitable.

[christianmalterre]

Jock,

 

to answer to your´s question.

Well that´s not a secret or mystery at all!

There are private "societies" offering an computer program which automatically bits-you do set an max-and up to that level this automatic generated system activates till up to your´s intended level-just short before End of Auction.

Not hard-No words-No insight-Cheap and functional.

Have an look in www from former Eastern Block countrys-there you´ll find....

 

Cheers

 

Christian

[Ian]

Jock

 

As there is only one item currently listed(on the UK site),and not able to view old sales there is nothing to compare it to!

 

 

Ian C

[Mark]

I think xxx (seller) is a member here so maybe he will comment

[Marius]

There are private "societies" offering an computer program which automatically bits-you do set an max-and up to that level this automatic generated system activates till up to your´s intended level-just short before End of Auction.

Not hard-No words-No insight-Cheap and functional.

Have an look in www from former Eastern Block countrys-there you´ll find....

 

Christian,

 

I am not sure if I understood you correctly, but I think what you are describing is "proxy bidding", a functionality that eBay and most other auction sites offer to bidders.

[pcfarrar]

ebay use neural networks to monitor bidding patterns and can detect shill bidding. If this is what xxx is doing he may eventually be caught.

 

It's a criminal offence in the UK (I've no idea about the USA). Someone was recently prosecuted here for it:

 

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/07/05/ebay_shill/

[Kevin]

If he sets it as a private listing - which is allowed for high priced items - then the bidders' identities are protected, and that's the message you'll get if you look at the bid history. It doesn't indicate shill bidding - it's how Ebay's system works.

 

I'm not sure it is necessary to have a private listing, given that Ebay anonymise bidders' identities anyway, but it looks like some potential buyers may prefer it that way.

 

Kevin

[Brian]

Folks,

I have edited out the name for now, as I have no desire to enter into a libel discussion right now. And until I have proof, I do not want to be accusing anyone of shill bidding....even though this is unfortunately used by LOTS of sellers.

As Kevin mentioned..how can you tell what person is bidding since ALL bidders are confidential nowdays?

I can't see how you can identify shill bidding since eBay blocks bidders identities. Jock..you are welcome to pm me any proof or show me how a list of unknown bidders can be linked to different auctions.

 

Brian

[jason_mazzy]

The only way around this type of bid is to place your first and final price bid (just 1 bid) in the last 2 seconds. The hard part is inevitibly some other person will probably bid before you allowing the proxy automated bidder to bid first.

[Kevin]

ebay use neural networks to monitor bidding patterns and can detect shill bidding. If this is what xxx is doing he may eventually be caught.

 

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/07/05/ebay_shill/

 

He wasn't caught by anything particularly advanced. He registered two accounts, both on the same IP. This qualifies him as an ejit, cos that would be easily spotted.

 

I suppose one could do it by having various friends/colleagues use their own accounts, all on different IPs and in different parts of the world, to drive the bidding up. OTOH, it strikes me that there is always the risk of the seller being left with the item because one of his shill bidders put in the highest bid. Also, folks don't do things like that for free. All in all, far too much effort and hassle co-ordinating all that lot. It is far easier - and much simpler - to sell things honestly.

 

Jason, folks routinely put in bids in the last few seconds. Sniping is rife on parts of Ebay. Mind you, you need a good PC and a reliable connection. It's not much good if you have a PC and connection that takes 30 seconds to place a bid. Not sure about the automated bidding systems - never used them.

 

Kevin

[drdata]

Brian, as FYI the seller's name is still in the subject of some postings...

 

Based on that I looked at the history of some sold items and see nothing unusual.

 

Does not prove no shill, but find ebay is full of people with the same "good idea". Very common to see the price double in the last few seconds.

[Kevin]

Very common to see the price double in the last few seconds.

 

Not only common, but almost routine when it comes to nihonto. The folks who put in bids at the beginning of the auction are invariably not the ones who win it. The more canny buyers wait until the last few minutes or even seconds. Some even work out the average reload time for the page so they can time their bid exactly, leaving as few seconds for anyone else to respond as possible. There's also a slight delay between a maximum bid being sent and the resulting top bid being displayed for other users to take into account, plus the few seconds delay before someone realises that they've been outbid, after which they frantically try to top the current maximum bid. Result - the price goes up dramatically as folks throw all caution to the winds in the final few seconds. After all, if you really want it and it is showing that someone else has put in a top bid of $2k and there's 30 seconds to go, the best possible way to win it is put in a bid for $4k or more, cos you can pretty much guarantee that their maximum bid is more than $2k and may be as high as $3k. OTOH, bidding $2200 is unlikely to do it.

 

Chances are the sudden price hikes are thus mostly down to folks manually playing the nature of the system and sitting there timing when they put in their bids, rather than automated systems or shills, and the reaction of other folks to their bidding. I wouldn't be surprised if some folk were damned near using gaming PCs. Judging how close to the end time I've seen some bids come in, I suspect that some folks are using fast machines with a very good connection. You wouldn't try such hairsbreadth bidding with a slow machine.

 

Kevin

[DirkO]

Hi Kevin,

 

There are sites that offer this service to bid the last few seconds. I for one use this :

http://www.justsnipe.com/

 

It also saves me from staying up at the middle of the night, and it prevents me from bidding more than I rationally would. You don't get caught up by the whole bidding frenzy.

[Brian]

I use JustSnipe too. (At least I did when I was still actively purchasing or bidding on stuff) 5 Free snipes a week. There are others such as Auctionstealer and AuctionSniper, but many cost a small amount. 3 or 5 secs before the end of the auction is usual...and just about anyone serious about winning a bid will use an automated bidder.

Nowdays, on something with a decent amount of interest, expect the price to at least double at the end..usually more.

Anyways, the point is that there is no way to easily identify shill bidding nowdays, and I do not exepect this seller is doing it.

 

Brian

[Marius]

Gentlemen,

 

honestly, I do not think the seller in question uses shill bids. His/her items are genuine nihonto and tosogu, sometimes of good or very good quality.

 

The usual pattern of the price skyrocketing in the last minutes is normal. eBay is a huge market and everybody has access to it 24/7. Expecting bargains there is naïve, to say the least. Suspecting a seller, just because his items cannot be bought at a bargain basement price indicates ignorance of eBay, sniping, proxy bidding etc.

 

In plain English - do not expect to buy a $1,000 tsuba for $ 100 just because the first bids do not move the price above $100. You will pay the full price eventually, and if you happen to be stupid enough to pay top $$$$ for a mediocre or bad blade in a late Edo jumbled koshirae just because a few thousand idiots around the globe want to spend their $$$$ to play with a real "samurai sword", then blame yourself, not the seller. And please do not defame people who just sell their stuff both to nihonto collectors and to samurai-obsessed idiots alike. These sellers don't have to be crooks, just because you don't get a super deal. In a global market you will never get one.

 

Having said that - I am in no ways connected to any eBay seller or any dealer, for that matter.

[Brian]

Shill bidding doesn't usually happen at the end. If you see big price increases at the beginning or early middle of the auction...that is when I would look closer at the bidding pattern.

 

Brian

[Kevin]

Personally I wouldn't expect him to use shill bidding. Having dealt with him on a few occasions, I've found him to be honest and straightforward. However, I thought I'd better address the evidence that was offered in support of the hypothesis of shill bidding, rather than offer a personal opinion.

 

In any case, as Brian says, shill bidding should be expected in the middle of the bidding. Try it at the end and the shill bidder might well wind up buying the sword, which is not what is intended. After all, the seller would be out of pocket on listing fees and final value fees.

 

Kevin

[Kevin]

I plain English - do not expect to buy a $1,000 tsuba for $ 100 just because the first bids do not move the price above $100.

 

Amazing how many do though, such as offers of a few hundred dollars for a papered sword in good polish.

 

And please do not defame people who just sell their stuff both to nihonto collectors and to samurai-obsessed idiots alike. These sellers don't have to be crooks, just because you don't get your super deal. In a global market you will not.

 

If you're selling something, then you sell it to whoever wants to pay the price. If one potential buyer wants it at a bargain price, rather than the market price, they shouldn't be too surprised if it goes to someone who is willing to pay more. That's the way it goes. It is a case of who offers the most cash. Not surprising - dealers need to make a profit because that's their sole income and they may have families to support. It isn't an easy way to make cash - there is a lot of work involved behind the scenes, particularly in the current economic climate. And without good dealers, there'd be a lot less swords to collect.

 

You want something, you have to be prepared to pay for it. The usual rule in life. Nothing is for free.

 

Kevin