Jūyō 70 results

[Jussi Ekholm]

NBTHK released the Jūyō 70 results today on their website: https://www.touken.or.jp/Portals/0/pdf/shinsa/第70回重要刀剣等指定品発表.pdf

 

I had fun time after work going through it like always. I did the yearly translation to western alphabets like I do every year. This features all the 91 items passed, doing the fittings is getting easier as I do have all the previous Jūyō results to tackle the fitting makers I do not know. There might be a fitting guy or 2 in there that I still have incorrectly. It is always good to go over the old results too and fix the errors I have made. For example I found out I had 戸張富久 Tobari Tomihisa incorrectly in previous session, to be honest I had no clue at all about this maker but finding a tsuba by him from Iidakoendo I must admit the work is spectacular to my eye.

 

After going through the results I can say I am just very puzzled... I know my own personal valuation criteria are most likely different than NBTHK has for their Jūyō shinsa. I am stunned by the lack of Bizen items in total - 5. In comparison to me it seems crazy that 5 items from Rai school passed. Also what was noticeable to me was the lack of signed tachi in general (2 tachi & 1 kodachi, 3 in total). Also to be noted koshirae and fittings are very high in number compared to their usual amount vs. swords.

Juyo 70.pdf

[nulldevice]

Do we know how many swords were submitted in total? Only 52 swords passed shinsa which seems like a low number. I wonder if that means it was a good year or a bad year to submit for shinsa as someone with say an old Rai or Ko-Bizen sword to pass? Do the low numbers signify little competition, or rather lots of competition and a very strict shinsa year? 

 

Thanks again as always Jussi!

[Schneeds]

Thanks Jussi!  Kaneuji/Shizu did pretty well comparatively, I'd like to see those. 

[Lewis B]

1 hour ago, nulldevice said:

 Only 52 swords passed shinsa

 

I was about to make the same comment. Incredibly low pass number. In fact probably the lowest ever in the modern era, beaten only by Juyo #1-4. Some years have had more ToJu passes, a lot more.

I wonder if this a continuing trend that started last year which raised many eyebrows. I would think twice before submitting anything unless a dead cert ie ubu, signed Koto in great polish from a major school. 

[GeorgeLuucas]

I've got a question for ya'll. Maybe it's been covered before...

At what point does Juyo attribution reach critical mass? 

Will there come a day, someday, when all the "Juyo level and above" swords have been papered? Are we witnessing a decline in awarded Juyo blades, simply because there are fewer out there, of juyo+ quality, after so many Shinsa sessions? 

Curious if this has been discussed, and what the more knowledgable think. 
-Sam

[Gakusee]

1 hour ago, nulldevice said:

Do we know how many swords were submitted in total? Only 52 swords passed shinsa which seems like a low number. I wonder if that means it was a good year or a bad year to submit for shinsa as someone with say an old Rai or Ko-Bizen sword to pass? Do the low numbers signify little competition, or rather lots of competition and a very strict shinsa year? 

 

Thanks again as always Jussi!

 

 

From a friend (and also disclosed in Japanese for those of us who actually bother to go to the Japanese source - I advise more people to try and do it rather than rely on 1-2 forum posters for that):

 

Pass vs Submitted
Swords  52/649 (8%)
Tosogu  33/199 (16.5%)
Koshirae 6/32 (18.8%)

 

Very low pass rate, similar to last year. Probably a composite outcome of shinsa panel line-up, (lack of) degree of confidence (hence some items need “further study” and another attempt), good quality blades drying up etc etc 

 

[Lewis B]

My Shikkake was submitted last year (2023) and failed. Wondered why the dealer didn't try and resubmit but having seen these results he made the right decision. Pitiful pass rate and easy money for NBTHK. 

[Lewis B]

6 minutes ago, Gakusee said:

 

 

Probably a composite outcome of shinsa panel line-up, (lack of) degree of confidence (hence some items need “further study” and another attempt)

 

I have a feeling this is a major contributor. 

[nulldevice]

35 minutes ago, GeorgeLuucas said:

I've got a question for ya'll. Maybe it's been covered before...

At what point does Juyo attribution reach critical mass? 

Will there come a day, someday, when all the "Juyo level and above" swords have been papered? Are we witnessing a decline in awarded Juyo blades, simply because there are fewer out there, of juyo+ quality, after so many Shinsa sessions? 

Curious if this has been discussed, and what the more knowledgable think. 
-Sam

Good point, I don't imagine there are swaths of blades being found under floorboards and in attics any more. Sure there are some hidden blades and I'm sure a number of WW2 bringbacks that are being found each day by grandchildren but to get those polished, and find Juyo quality blades is a very small probability of swords found. Most WW2 veterans are gone by now and the few surviving members' possessions will be handed off within the next decade or so. We hear that Juyo is a competition but there is still a quality "floor" for what qualifies to even be considered for that competition. In some perfect world, every blade would be submitted for shinsa and the Juyo-worthy blades would pass and those that aren't up to snuff (competition aside, just talking quality only here) would stay at TokuHo or Hozon. I wonder what that number would look like and how that compares to the current tally of Juyo blades? 

Coming back to reality, how consistent is that "skill floor" over the years? If the overall quality of submitted blades goes down, does the skill floor required to pass Juyo go down just a little bit compared to years prior? They've been doing Juyo shinsa for 66 years now with many different shinsa teams and presidents over the decades. 

 

Admittedly I am still only a beginner with this whole thing but the statistics side of my brain is fascinated by the concept of Juyo being competition based and the human element of it as the years go on and on. I wonder if we'll still see 50+ blades passing in Juyo 80 or 90? 

[Schneeds]

2 hours ago, GeorgeLuucas said:

I've got a question for ya'll. Maybe it's been covered before...

At what point does Juyo attribution reach critical mass? 

Will there come a day, someday, when all the "Juyo level and above" swords have been papered? Are we witnessing a decline in awarded Juyo blades, simply because there are fewer out there, of juyo+ quality, after so many Shinsa sessions? 

Curious if this has been discussed, and what the more knowledgable think. 
-Sam

I have been wondering the exact same thing. 

 

Simple math tells us one of two scenarios has to happen eventually:

 

1) with rare exception, no blades are rewarded juyo;

 

2) NBTHK lowers its standards and continues awarding juyo. 

 

Option 1 would likely mean a loss in revenue.  If this were an American organization I know which would happen.  Luckily it isn't. 

[Lewis B]

Perhaps the NBTHK will introduce a Juyo Lite or Junior Juyo category. That would fix both scenarios by retaining revenue streams and at the same time preserve the status of historic Juyo papers. It worked with TokuJu. 

[PNSSHOGUN]

Interesting to see so many Shin Shinto swords achieve Juyo.

[Jussi Ekholm]

I do believe there are still thousands of items that should eventually pass the coveted Jūyō shinsa. As you can see 600+ swords were sent to this session, so there is steady flow of items coming in to try. I am personally not a fan of NBTHK's several tiers of submissions, even though I understand the system a bit.

 

Currently I believe around 120,000+ swords have passed Hozon shinsa and 75,000+ swords have passed Tokubetsu Hozon shinsa. These are just NBTHK numbers there are also lots and lots of awesome items in Japan that will most likely not be appraised by NBTHK.

 

I would love to be a fly on the wall and see all of the swords that were sent in order to try understand the bigger picture. I can't really figure out the game as sometimes it just seems weird that some passes are absent from some sessions while they are abundant in general and vice versa, some passes came in unexpected bunches.

 

For example I was looking at signed Samonji tantō as there were 2 passing this session 70. There seems to be weird intervals when I look from sessions 30-70. In 31,32,33 - 3 of them passed. In session 41 - 1 passed. 49 & 50 have 4 passes, 58,59,60 - 4 passes. Now in 70 there were 2 passes. This can be just total coincidence but it seems like there are signed Samonji passes c. every 10 years and then it is silent again in between. Still I feel it is crazy to look at the data.

 

Then some things you can usually take for granted is things like a Norishige or 2,3,4 passing. From 50 to 70 the session 56 is only one where a Norishige didn't pass. Within just these sessions 41 Norishige blades have passed. However there must be a lot of competition for Norishige as many of them get probably submitted to every session.

 

However there are always the fresh air in form of super unknown smith, and I personally love that. For example the Bingo Kanetsugu is extreme rarity, I believe this sword is actually Okayama Prefecture Bunkazai that has now passed through NBTHK, it would be too much of coincidence to have exactly the same sized sword signed and dated to same year by very unknown smith. Here is the link to Prefecture Bunkazai: https://www.pref.oka...ttachment/261317.pdf Unfortunately I do not yet have picture of this, but when book 70 will be published I aim to get it. Bingo Shigetoshi seems to be another rarity, so far I haven't been able to find any item of his. Extremely important that items like these pass so they will be documented vs. sword being the 56th mumei Shizu katana that passed Jūyō. I know I am biased in my view and I understand some mumei ō-suriage items are of extremely high quality.

 

Now it seems this is actually a first Jūyō session where a single Ichimonji did not pass bit mindblowing fact for myself.

[Gokaden]

Interesting, how many Masamune are left that are not Juyo? 17. Katana – Masamune – [Kinzōgan ga aru 正宗 / 本阿 (花押)]

[Jussi Ekholm]

There are actually surprising amount of Masamune swords still remaining to this day. Currently I have info on 113 Masamune + there are 3 Jūyō ones I don't yet have info on, So at least 116 in total. Out of those the majority are either National ranked (Kokuhō, Jūyō Bunkazai) or NBTHK ranked. There are 37 Masamune that are outside those rankings. However I believe the majority of these will never be submitted to NBTHK for several reasons, and I perfectly understand not sending them as NBTHK appraisal wouldn't make a difference to me.

 

There can also be a "downgrading" by NBTHK. This actually happened to Yasukuni-jinja ultra wide wakizashi that was a historical Masamune. Now it is Tokubetsu Jūyō but attributed to Tomomitsu by NBTHK.

 

I have heard about few Tokubetsu Hozon Masamune but I have not been privileged to see a picture or get any info on them, as they are most likely reserved to people who study and collect Masamune at very high level. Cannot confirm that in any way but as there are Masamune popping up at Jūyō and these recent(ish) ones have been new to me, so there are most likely some more unknown Masamune blades that have passed NBTHK shinsa at lower level.

[NewB]

1 hour ago, Jussi Ekholm said:

There are actually surprising amount of Masamune swords still remaining to this day. Currently I have info on 113 Masamune + there are 3 Jūyō ones I don't yet have info on, So at least 116 in total. Out of those the majority are either National ranked (Kokuhō, Jūyō Bunkazai) or NBTHK ranked. There are 37 Masamune that are outside those rankings. However I believe the majority of these will never be submitted to NBTHK for several reasons, and I perfectly understand not sending them as NBTHK appraisal wouldn't make a difference to me.

 

There can also be a "downgrading" by NBTHK. This actually happened to Yasukuni-jinja ultra wide wakizashi that was a historical Masamune. Now it is Tokubetsu Jūyō but attributed to Tomomitsu by NBTHK.

 

I have heard about few Tokubetsu Hozon Masamune but I have not been privileged to see a picture or get any info on them, as they are most likely reserved to people who study and collect Masamune at very high level. Cannot confirm that in any way but as there are Masamune popping up at Jūyō and these recent(ish) ones have been new to me, so there are most likely some more unknown Masamune blades that have passed NBTHK shinsa at lower level.

 

Jussi,

 

how many masamune blades are unaccounted for except for the one that has been discussed here?

 

thank you

 

y

[Rivkin]

There are surprisingly many Masamune TH.

Some are TH because they have a lot of damage; I personally believe there were two "Masamune" - real one, early smith with a very calm work, and someone from 1330-1360, very close to Go with a crazy over the top style, but at least one fukure per blade. If you don't see fukure, it has been suriaged (yes, he could do fukure in nakago).

If there are 4 fukure each 1-2cm in size (there are such blades) it does not get above TH.

 

The second case is Masamune which becomes Shizu at Juyo (too much masame to ignore).

[Jussi Ekholm]

@NewB Unfortunately I have no clue about that number. It can still be fairly large.

 

Also I see no reason why Tokyo National Museum, Tokugawa Art Museum, Imperial Collection etc. would send their Masamune to NBTHK for papering. So lots of the non-NBTHK blades can never be acquired as museum/shrines etc. have them in their collection.

 

There are also historical Masamune that are not seen as Masamune by NBTHK. I know a forum member has one such sword but I will keep info on that private. Because Masamune has extremely few signed pieces then opinions can vary on some of the mumei blades.

[NewB]

10 minutes ago, Jussi Ekholm said:

@NewB Unfortunately I have no clue about that number. It can still be fairly large.

 

Also I see no reason why Tokyo National Museum, Tokugawa Art Museum, Imperial Collection etc. would send their Masamune to NBTHK for papering. So lots of the non-NBTHK blades can never be acquired as museum/shrines etc. have them in their collection.

 

There are also historical Masamune that are not seen as Masamune by NBTHK. I know a forum member has one such sword but I will keep info on that private. Because Masamune has extremely few signed pieces then opinions can vary on some of the mumei blades.

thank you 

 

the hunt is on it seems although I somewhat suspect that if any of those ended up in the US then they are definitely buried in someone’s vault

 

y