Value placed on older NTBHK certificate - opinions

[BKB5]

I am curious about the age of Shinsa papers and how they may be viewed by high end collectors and those with deep knowledge. With extremely deep knowledge I am assuming the blade speaks for itself to the person examining it. If Mumei there could of course be questions on school, smith, age, etc.

If a blade is Mumei, high polish, Juyo, but given that certification in the early 1970's - does that in a sense "invalidate the paper" to a degree - not completely of course. I mean would a buyer who values these higher end blades see an older attribution as being "not as desirable" as say a 5 year old attribution.

How would that effect the price from a dealer if at all?

I seem to see Juyo blades often have older attribution on certification.

 

How do those of you who are looking at high end blades approach them? - ESPECIALLY if its a blade that cannot be seen in hand!

Thanks!!

 

 

[Jussi Ekholm]

Unfortunately I won't be shopping at Jūyō level and perhaps never will. I have however collected the majority of the Jūyō books.

 

I would assume collectors would desire the early Jūyō items and it has been often stated to be wary of 2X sessions. However I don't judge the items by sessions they passed. There are awesome items and maybe not so desirable items in every Jūyō session. Even 23 and 24, that are often seen as "weak" sessions due to massive amount of items passing in them, have lots of amazing items.

 

I think for mumei blades attribution is the factor that carries the most weight. I personally find it hard to grasp how much the attribution sometimes can affect the value in some cases.

[BKB5]

Jussi thank you for your reply! I sent you a message - I was considering Juyo -  Showa June 1st Syowa 46th(1971)

 

I guess that would be the older ranking scale - pre 1980's.

[nulldevice]

Here are some of Darcy's comments regarding the scandal era, Juyo blades over the years, and general Juyo thoughts. It's a great read:
Manufacture Period and Juyo Sessions

 

It's a shame the visualizations are gone but there are others that exist today that help visualize what he is talking about
Juyo+ plotted Era vs Length

[BKB5]

13 hours ago, nulldevice said:

Here are some of Darcy's comments regarding the scandal era, Juyo blades over the years, and general Juyo thoughts. It's a great read:
Manufacture Period and Juyo Sessions

 

It's a shame the visualizations are gone but there are others that exist today that help visualize what he is talking about
Juyo+ plotted Era vs Length

Excellent advice and perspective - I have read through several times. Thank you!  - I guess it can never be said enough "buy the blade not the paper". In our online world tough to really get in hand inspection for learning. There are limited sword shows in the USA (ecpecially southeast) - I think there is an Orlando show that is pretty large for this area. Correct me if wrong - or anyone knows of "Collectors Groups" in Southeast USA or other good shows where high end swords are in attendance.

[Tsuku]

On 12/6/2024 at 11:10 AM, BKB5 said:

If a blade is Mumei, high polish, Juyo, but given that certification in the early 1970's - does that in a sense "invalidate the paper" to a degree - not completely of course. I mean would a buyer who values these higher end blades see an older attribution as being "not as desirable" as say a 5 year old attribution.

 

The opposite is true.

 

The first Jūyō session was in 1958. By the time 1971 rolls around and Tokubetsu Jūyō is introduced, we are up to Jūyō session 21 and almost 4,000 blades are Jūyō-tōken.

To illustrate the difference, let's use this point as a dividing line and look at the blades that passed Jūyō before session 21 ("early") and after ("late") There are about 3,700 early blades and 8,600 late blades, but 14.7% of the early blades subsequently passed Tokubetsu Jūyō, and only 7.5% of the late blades did so. There are obviously stand-out great swords in every session, and due diligence should always be exercised, but the early sessions were very strong.

None of this rationale should be applied to the old Kichō papers. That is a topic which has been beaten to death around here but I would be remiss if I did not mention it.

[Mushin]

Bradley, feel free to DM me for details about meetups we have in various places around Florida and occasionally near Atlanta.

 

[Gakusee]

It is interesting and encouraging that newer members and younger collectors have started delving into which Juyo sessions to consider. Twenty-thirty years ago merely having a Juyo was enough as they were “scarcer” literally due to there being fewer in general and fewer in the West. 
 

There are indeed various considerations about “early” sessions (usually pre-15), the 1970s, the most recent ones. There is a lot to be said and analysed. Let us just say that some of the most recent shinsa sessions are head-scratchers in different ways to the prolific 1970s. 
 

Just some caveats: the 1970s also had great swords in them. Don’t disregard a sword just because it is from a session between 20-27 or thereabouts. 
 

Don’t look only at length. Sometimes the longer specimens of a smith’s production are frankly the more boring ones. I have seen it with many “greats” from Kamakura where the most flamboyant or stereotypical examples are suriage or mumei. Of course, here I am talking about old Koto and not Muromachi and later, where you will want zaimei ubu, ceteris paribus. 

 
 

Not all smiths and schools even within the same sessions are equal. There are always better and more renowned smiths and schools which pass alongside more average or mundane smiths and schools. However, there are certain statistical distributions and brackets the NBTHK broadly conforms to. 
 

Also, you could have a ToHo blade which is superior to many Juyo. Perhaps it is on its journey to greatness and simply has not passed that hurdle yet… Numerous factors play in there. You will need knowledge and understanding as to why a big name sits at ToHo still….

 

Anyway, this is an advanced area of knowledge and collecting and do not rush to conclusions.