Expert knowledge and experience

[Lukrez]

My research resulted in the following preliminary conclusion, please correct me if I'm wrong: If you ask experienced collectors, you can summarize that the Nihonto market has changed and
has become more acute, especially in recent years: Especially the market for high-quality, fairly priced objects seems to be completely empty .
Furthermore the interesting stuff always remain in Japanese hands and is traded only among long-standing collectors and networks (understandable). Even Tsuruta-san (AOI), which has a great selection in terms of quantity and
is accessible to Europeans, is said to be in the 3/10 to 6/10 range in terms of quality. Basically, as a nobody, you always lose out in this niche area "nihonto", especially since the majority get their blades over the Internet
without being able to take advantage of the chance to look at the blades in real life (and photos are of course placed in such a way that kizu and rust cannot be clearly seen, or are even covered up with a horimino).
Of course it's not just about owning the great works, but when you read and hear that only "junk" is being exported to the West, then you start to question your passion, at least for your own possessions.
Buying directly in Japan also doesn't seem very tempting when you add up to 35 percent more for transport and customs clearance (Germany and Switzerland). Thanks for your assessments of the current market situation and potential future developments.

[Grey Doffin]

I sell swords and kodogu online and I suppose I'm offering 3/10 to 6/10 range of quality. You need to consider that 9/10 and 10/10 items can't legally be exported from Japan; no wonder they aren't offered online to westerners. I have had and currently have swords that I consider quite fine and I'm proud to be able to offer them

And, I would never try to disguise a defect; my pictures and descriptions always point them out to my customers. And I'm not the only online dealer who tries to warrant trust; there are others. I think, Lukrez, that you are being too harsh in your judgement.

Thanks, Grey

[Lewis B]

1 hour ago, Lukrez said:

My research resulted in the following preliminary conclusion, please correct me if I'm wrong: If you ask experienced collectors, you can summarize that the Nihonto market has changed and
has become more acute, especially in recent years: Especially the market for high-quality, fairly priced objects seems to be completely empty .
Furthermore the interesting stuff always remain in Japanese hands and is traded only among long-standing collectors and networks (understandable). Even Tsuruta-san (AOI), which has a great selection in terms of quantity and
is accessible to Europeans, is said to be in the 3/10 to 6/10 range in terms of quality. Basically, as a nobody, you always lose out in this niche area "nihonto", especially since the majority get their blades over the Internet
without being able to take advantage of the chance to look at the blades in real life (and photos are of course placed in such a way that kizu and rust cannot be clearly seen, or are even covered up with a horimino).
Of course it's not just about owning the great works, but when you read and hear that only "junk" is being exported to the West, then you start to question your passion, at least for your own possessions.
Buying directly in Japan also doesn't seem very tempting when you add up to 35 percent more for transport and customs clearance (Germany and Switzerland). Thanks for your assessments of the current market situation and potential future developments.

Couple of thoughts and observations having just purchased my first nihonto from Japan. It's a bit of a blanket statement to say Western buyers only have access mid tier blades at best. It's really difficult to gauge the voracity of that since we have no idea what is available behind closed doors and within carefully curated circles. I plan to visit the DTI next year and maybe this will help to figure out if we are really swimming in a shallower pool. As with anything it's often who you know so buying through an intermediary may pay dividends (there are a couple of EU based players who can offer this service). You might pay a little extra but I think it will be well worth the investment. I plan to make a big purchase at the 2025 DTI if I see something that tickles my fancy. I will contact a few dealers ahead of the event and ask if they have something that meets my specs so that it can be brought for inspection. 

 

Regarding taxes (at least in Germany) the standard MwST levied is 19%, although if you can prove the item is over 250 years old (with NBTHK papers) and of historical significance (perhaps a littler harder to establish) then a 7% import tax is applied. I am currently going through this process having been told to pay the 19% upfront and then dispute the applied HS tax code in the hope the lower tax can be negotiated. This can all be done online. 

 

 

[Jacques D.]

There's a part of the nihonto market that ignores the Internet, and it's generally very high-end. 

[nulldevice]

Going to DTI this year showed me just how much very high-end stuff is available that doesn't make it on the internet. You'll get a few TJ blades on some sites that you could say are 8/10 or 9/10 on your scale (with 10/10 being above TJ and unavailable to foreign buyers), whereas at DTI there were dozens of TJ blades with some dealers having 10+ TJ blades available for sale. 

 

Based on my experience at DTI, all of those high end blades are available to purchase if you have the money. The cost of a 5-7/10 blade is a fraction of the 8-9/10 blades, sometimes by a factor of 10x or more. I'm sure if I had 50M yen to spend on one of the top blades at DTI, they would've sold it to me no problem! I was able to hold a few and appreciate them in person, but my budget was a small fraction of the many blades there that were 25M+ yen. 

 

That being said, I purchased what I believe was a very nice blade that was within my budget in perfect polish that wasn't available online and would've probably sold faster had it been offered on a site like Aoi in my jaded opinion. Its definitely worth going to DTI if you have the means and want to have access to nearly any blade that you could imagine. 

[Okan]

That’s not entirely true. High-quality items are still available in the market; it’s just a matter of knowing where to look. However, their very high prices often make them unaffordable for most collectors.

 

Japanese dealers naturally prioritize their loyal customers. If a Japanese collector is searching for a specific sword or has a focused collection, they’ll be the first to know about it—which is completely normal. Some old collectors don’t even use the Internet, so their business are conducted the old-fashioned way. With that being said, some very high-end Swiss collectors are often among the first to hear about specific swords entering the market. 

 

I also disagree with the common saying, “If it were a good sword, it would have been sold in Japan.” Just because a Japanese passes on a particular sword doesn’t mean it’s a bad one. In fact, I’ve seen high-quality swords leave Japan, often worth much more than their perceived value, yet overlooked by Japanese collectors. 

 

When buying a sword, thorough research is essential. Since you often don’t have the opportunity to examine the blades in person, it’s crucial to find a dealer you can trust. As you mentioned, some dealers(maybe most of them) may hide some flaws. Always ask if there are any imperfections. If they claim there aren’t but you later discover one, don’t hesitate to address it publicly—start a discussion, post about it on Facebook. It could impact their reputation and hold them accountable.

 

 

[Lewis B]

I suddenly realise how much I miss Darcy Brockbank and Yuhindo.com. That was THE place for Westerners to see and possibly acquire 7-9/10 blades from top schools and smiths. 

[Schneeds]

What is 'interesting' in terms of collection is extremely subjective.  Quality is more objective, but there's always going to be give and take until you're spendjng a great deal of money. 

 

People collect for a variety of reasons and value a variety of things. Some people are concerned more with sugata, some with jihada, others the hamon...  

 

Others the attribution of the school, the smith, the time period, the level of papers, the provenance...  

 

The important thing is to know what you want, why you want it, and the relative price range to achieve it. 

[lonely panet]

Im still surprised aoi is mentioned in positive terms. A guy i would never buy from.

 

Onto quality. Its a very small area of study and collection. Like any area, good things move in closed circles because friendships last over decades. A sales relationship only lasts as long as thr buyers are getting the prices they like.

 

Also iv refused to sell to people because they dont have the understanding of how to treat a nihonto. We are caretakers not owners.  Uneducated people damage things through ignorance 

[nulldevice]

23 minutes ago, lonely panet said:

Im still surprised aoi is mentioned in positive terms. A guy i would never buy from.

 

Onto quality. Its a very small area of study and collection. Like any area, good things move in closed circles because friendships last over decades. A sales relationship only lasts as long as thr buyers are getting the prices they like.

 

Also iv refused to sell to people because they dont have the understanding of how to treat a nihonto. We are caretakers not owners.  Uneducated people damage things through ignorance 

He arguably has the best website for foreigners to access and bid on/buy nihonto. Every other site I frequently peruse has lackluster translations or no translations at all and their sites aren't modern or well structured. I think Tsuruta's own ranking of saku, jo-saku, etc. is confusing for beginners who will think that a smith is jo-jo saku ranked when that's Aoi's own designation of that particular work and not a reference to the smith rankings done by Fujishiro.

 

I bought a set of the Nihonto Taikan from Tsuruta and he was extremely fast with the shipping and even double checked if I still wanted the items since shipping was nearly the cost of the books themselves from Japan to the USA. But I got the books for 1/2 of what they go for in the USA even with shipping and it's been a great resource for me. So I have no nihonto experience with Aoi, but I have made 1 purchase from his shop and it was painless and quick. 

 

He has the best website of any of the Japan based dealers with frequent inventory updates and lots of inventory to look at with better quality photos than many. But I suspect that if Japanese dealers wanted to compete, they'd make an effort to market their internet sites accordingly. Samurai Musuem was also a very friendly site when I first began looking at nihonto. Their prices are really high, but to the beginner to the hobby, the information they present paints the "samurai warrior sword" picture perfectly. 

 

ETA: More on Samurai Musuem and some of the other dealers. Only when I began to learn more and more about nihonto did I start to see some key details missing from their ads that IMO are important to those who take study more seriously. Most of my post above is from my perspective 18 months ago when I had just started out on this hobby with only a fresh copy of Connoisseur's and fresh interest in a new hobby. My views have changed largely since then due to education, this board, and attending 2 sword shows and meeting experts who have taught me a great deal.  

Edited Monday at 07:18 PM by nulldevice
Formatting and added more context

[Jussi Ekholm]

I think one complicated thing would be deciding on what would be considered as a fair pricing. There are also amazing very high quality items in collections of various European collectors.

 

Also while I understand "rating" dealers, it can sometimes be tricky as they can have invetory outside their regular "rating". Some top dealers will have some cheaper items and some cheaper dealers can have very high quality items. Judging the particular item would be more important. Also as someone obsessed with old items it is also important to know that some items can change ownership quite fast. There are items that have even popped up online at 4-5 different dealers over the years, and might have even had offline sales too. In those cases of course the actual item remains the same but it can be listed by variously "rated" dealers.

 

It is possible to find good deals at 5k, 15k, 50k, 100k+€, however perception might vary. What I personally might consider for example a good deal for 10,000€, someone else might think it would be overpriced and vice versa. People value different things like Erik wrote above. Do you have some specific direction you are looking for future purchases?

 

Building business relations would be awesome and I will highly recommend that if it is possible for you. For someone like myself it is just not possible because I can make purchases very rarely. So possibly waiting for several and several years between purchases, I would not stress about the dealer relationship but would rather focus on specific item regardless on who is the dealer that has it.

[Lewis B]

I bought my 2nd Nihonto from Chosuya Ginza. The site is well organised, with photos that give a reasonable impression of the finer details contained in the blade. Prices are excellent from what I can see for the quality offered. And Akemi Tateno has an excellent command of English, is happy to accommodate with additional pictures and her personal impression of the blade in question. She even mediated with Tanobe san to write the Sayagaki. The sword was packaged perfectly. I would definitely buy from her again. 

[Rivkin]

It exists in all collecting communities.

Let discuss a blade? No participants. Which frankly can be a good thing knowing what kind of contribution is expected.

Lets discuss a school, a name? Total babkes.

 

Lets discuss "how one has to collect to be a true elite scholar".

200 posts.

[Jacques D.]

Quote

some very high-end Swiss collectors are often among the first to hear about specific swords entering the market. 

 

I know, I used to know a few of them, and I've even been asked to do the work for them on occasion. I remember a Ko AOE that took me 6 months and 2 trips to Japan.

[David Flynn]

It still comes down to, what are you looking for?   Have you done all of your homework (Study)  Do you know what you're looking at?  What is your price range, etc.

A sword in the hand is worth a 1000 photo's.

This is also applicable for Japan.

[Mushin]

Yes, it does seem that the quantity and quality of top-tier swords coming on the market is less than it was even a few years ago. I personally think it is cyclical and has much to do with a few new big buyers in the marketplace, and fluctuating currencies and current shinsa pass rates that make some people want to hang on their blades. There are, of course, many other contributing reasons. But I hardly think this is unusual or limited to Nihonto. My own experience is that in every corner of the art and collecting world, dealers will always offer any outstanding work that comes in off the street to their best, well-known (you can read well-heeled) customers. Providing known high rollers directly with what they are looking for saves dealers time and money photographing, cataloging, translating and otherwise promoting the piece. It is a one-click solution for them to a sale. It also keeps existing good wealthy customers happy, and increases the trust that big buyers have in those dealers. So, if you are a customer that only occasionally buys  swords in the $2,000 to $10,000 range, it's crazy to expect a dealer to offer you a Tokobetsu Juyo Shizu Kanji for  $175k. Why would they? So, there is truth in that many of the best pieces do not make it into the open market, whether that's in brick & mortar stores, the internet or sword shows. Up to 20 years ago, but definitely 30 to 40 years ago, there were diamonds to be found at American guns hows as the kids of GI's started cleaning out the family attic. Many of these were also run of the mill pieces but we know there were many treasures to be had for pennies if you were lucky, knowledgable or had access to reference materials, which back then were few. Often these gems were sold by folks without knowledge for a fraction of what they go for today. But if you are talking about top-tier papered blades today in outstanding condition, you are 100% correct: mere mortals will seldomly -  if ever - find  these on websites today, and never for what many working folks would consider a "fair price." But again, I don't see that as different from other collectible markets. And yes, Darcy was a magnet for these pieces, and you often saw them posted on his pages, though for big money. But there were also lots of blades and fittings  that Darcy got that the public never saw, because they went straight to his top customers who didn't want people out there knowing about them. That said, if you know what you are looking for, and you keep your powder dry, saving your money until you find what you want, there are sometime still great pieces that land on Aoi Art, or Iidakoendo or Shoubudou or Choshuya, or Katana Hanbai or Seiyudo or several other sites. They don't hang around long and are usually offered at higher prices, not cheap but obtainable. My advice is to communicate with dealers that you trust and tell them what you are looking for. Tell them your budget. It has worked for me. Also friends in the hobby can sometimes help you if they know what you want. I have been granted on a few occasions access to swords from the estates of private collections that go straight to dealers. Doesn't happen often but it has happened and I have found pieces I would be hard pressed to find on websites for prices that were achievable for me. Like I said, it's not an everyday occurrence, but then again these artifacts don't exist in those kind of quantities to begin with. 

[Mark S.]

How many of us make regular on-line purchases (especially overseas) that could equal the amount of an expensive sports car or house mortgage sight unseen and assume it’s all just going to work out?  

[Robert S]

17 hours ago, Mark S. said:

How many of us make regular on-line purchases (especially overseas) that could equal the amount of an expensive sports car or house mortgage sight unseen and assume it’s all just going to work out?  

Not me :-).  I must confess that when it comes to that kind of money I'm more likely to be buying a 30s Rolls, although I haven't pulled the trigger yet.

[Lewis B]

41 minutes ago, Robert S said:

Not me :-).  I must confess that when it comes to that kind of money I'm more likely to be buying a 30s Rolls, although I haven't pulled the trigger yet.

A high Roller? Sorry I couldn't resist. I'll get my coat.......

[sabiji]

As always, this kind of topic irritates me and I ask myself whether I am living in a parallel universe?

 

I don't want to start again with the old stories about how the situation of a collector 30 years ago compares to the current situation.

 

I still had to make decisions based solely on paper photos that I received in paper mail, taken with cameras that were universes different in their technical capabilities from a standard cell phone camera today.

And of course, at certain sums you have to get off your ass to look at a sword in person. I wouldn't do it any differently today.

 

So with all due respect, this frequent “the market is dead” whining is absurd.

 

And it's not the poor Tsuruta-san's fault either! For many years, he was one of the few opportunities for the “average collector” to acquire a sword in Japan without having any special contacts there.

 

And I have also seen a few blades bought from him recently, where I was honestly deeply impressed and enthusiastic, at prices I would not discuss at all.

Of course, I know the buyer well. He has an excellent eye and knows exactly what he is doing.

 

And that is why I would say that it has never been easier for collectors like him to fish out good and attractively priced pieces from the market.

 

But that's just my opinion.
 

[DKR]

15 minutes ago, sabiji said:

 

 

And I have also seen a few blades bought from him recently, where I was honestly deeply impressed and enthusiastic, at prices I would not discuss at all.

Of course, I know the buyer well. He has an excellent eye and knows exactly what he is doing.

 

 

 

Really?........you are sure ?     

[sabiji]

1 hour ago, DKR said:

Really?........you are sure ?     

For the most part, yes! 

[Rivkin]

Collecting per se in every field in the past 30 years has democratized a lot.

The knowledge was scarce, the scene was very cliqy and dominated by a few people who (supposedly) knew what they were doing.

30 years ago you bid on non-existent pictures in auction catalogues because James told you that "John saw it". And then you meet John and he tells you he saw it, and it was crap.

 

On the good side of it, if you were part of the club and knew what you were doing you did very well - "supposedly" because I was obviously young and had no clue, but I've seen impressive collections from that era. 

Today you have many more tools to get the info, but so does everyone else. People in a remote village do have the internet and they do some rudimentary checks on what they are selling. Its 100 times more likely to find junk being offered at exorbitant valuation because they found "something similar" on christies website than to find something severely undervalued.

 

So its a great time to be a beginner collector. Its harder to hunt for super-deals at a higher level, but its easier to buy if you have a lot of money.

If you have Money you can get near anything at near any level. To the point that I've seen great collections assembled by people with zero understanding, though its uncommon. Most western collectors are staying in a comfortable 5000$ range. For some reason the perceived lack of semi-decent Sadamune on the market is of great concern at this level.

But then you look at supposedly great collections assembled in 1930s... and the only thing you can say is "why?".

 

I personally like the internet/digital photo explosion of knowledge because it allows one to ponder some drastic new things.

[Mushin]

Kirill makes an excellent point about the democratization of the market with the internet and how it has impacted collectors’ knowledge and what they buy. In fact, the market is so dominated by the internet that for years some old timers have long predicted the end of sword shows. This has not happened, nor do I expect it to happen any time soon because ultimately I think there is no substitute for being able to see Nihonto in person. And yes, I agree that big money can pretty much buy whatever it wants, and indeed, there are some amazing collections by extremely wealthy collectors that have virtually materialized overnight. But the rich have never wanted, and this has always been true in all areas of collecting long before the internet was even an idea.

But the heart of Lukrez’ original question was has the market changed and grown more acute? And is there noticeable lack of high-end pieces around for sale?

From I am hearing, if you ask Japanese dealers this question, they would agree that it is probably true. That is not to say there are not top end pieces available. I know of several places online currently offering Rai and Ichimonji blades of various sizes with various papers, a few Juyo Enju, a TokoJu Chogi, several Kanemitsu, a Yukimitsu tanto, and lots of mumei suriage blades from the Kamakura and Nanbokucho attributed to a sundry of decent schools and smiths. Look no further than Katana Hanbai, Tsuruginoya, IIdakoendo and Eirakudo for some top offerings at hefty prices. And yes, some of the best pieces are indeed not put on the website but are held in reserve. But what dealers and folks I know in Japan are saying is that THEY are not seeing the variety, condition and quality they saw even five years ago. I have heard of one new dealer complaining that he was so excited to gain admittance to Japan’s dealers auctions only to find nothing outstanding to buy. Several point to the DTI and say if you compare the 2024 DTI catalogue to those before 2020, you will see a drop in the variety and condition of top swords.

Early to middle period Soshu works seem especially difficult to come by compared to a few years back. But finding swords by most top Koto smiths in near perfect condition that are ubu, not machio-kure with one mekugiana is increasingly difficult to run down, and when dealers do get them, they might not them on a website because there is a queue of collectors who have been waiting. Long, flawless katana from Keicho Shinto are also increasingly at a premium. And while there are a great many excellent wakizashi still around, great tantos by great makers in amazing koshirae we once saw all over are increasingly difficult to come by. It doesn’t mean they can’t be found, it’s just not as easy as it once was, dealers say. Given time and wads of cash, they can be run down.

Now these great swords weren’t swallowed into a black hole never to be seen again. It seems that many were scooped up in recent years and aren’t coming back on to the market with the same regularity as they used to. Why? Several possible reasons. Maybe because the Yen is so weak, people want to hold on to their treasures because they fear that the cash will be worth less in a year. Maybe because the market is smaller and older, so they don’t see the point. Maybe because they think it is harder to upgrade because they can’t find what they want. In the U.S., we have lost several leading collectors in the last few years, but their collections, by and large, have yet to come to market either because of family disputes over valuations or the time it takes an auction house to photograph and produce a catalogue. Like I said before, it’s all cyclical. So, if you are patient, know what you want, set aside some cash, you are likely – eventually - to find what you want at whatever it is you consider a “fair price.”

[Jussi Ekholm]

There have been some very good posts written above. Unfortunately I am not privileged to have info on the top level collecting in Japan. However through my own tedious research of tracking items over the years I have found out some answers that are also logical. To my understanding tthere are few absolutely massive private collectors in Japan. Also from other private collectors often some top items get donated to a well known museum for example for perhaps various reasons. Tokyo National Museum, NBTHK, etc. will get some great items donated to their collection.

 

Personally because I cannot ever collect at the top level I am not stressing about these things but the reality is that there is only X amount of certain items and the pool of items that are possible to acquire gets smaller. For example for rare signed items by top smiths I think it is more likely that the items will end up in some collection than new unknown signed pieces will pop up in large numbers. Here are few examples

 

I am currently aware of 30 signed tachi by Ko-Bizen Tomonari, however I believe possibly only 2 of them might be possible to own outside Japan (items from TJ 10 and Jūyō 31, and of course also these might be beyond reach, just that I am not aware of). There was a tachi that passed Jūyō 33 but I recently found out it has been donated to Kyūshū National Museum.

For Bizen Kanemitsu I currently know about 40 signed tachi, of these I believe 15 of these might be items that might be possible to own outside Japan (however I would believe several of them are already out of reach, just that I am not yet aware of that).

 

I remember I tracked in a thread here how much absolute top items the Nagoya Tōken World was acquiring at quite rapid pace. Now the museum has absolutely stunning collection and is probably the best place to visit for a sword enthusiast. However the hundreds of swords that have end up in their collection will probably forever stay in that collection. Here is a link I had these numbers almost 3 years ago (I think there might be extremely little movement in these National Rankings, Kokuhō and Jūyō Bunkazai but they can sometimes although very rarely change ownership).

 

An example of this is will be from the above mentioned Tōken World in Nagoya and swordsmith Bungo Yukihira. I have found 41 tachi by Bungo Yukihira so far, perhaps 11 of those would be possible to own for a person outside Japan (although I would assume several of these are locked in private collections). The number would have been higher but Tōken World has 3 Bungo Yukihira tachi with NBTHK certification. I remember being very impressed when I saw each of them when I visited the museum. Two of these are Tokubetsu Jūyō and one is Jūyō.

 

I do have only the free online catalogs of 21,22,23 and 24 DTI, as I haven't found the need to get the old ones as financial side of sword collecting does not interest me. However there are 8 items in these 4 catalogs that make multiple appearances. Now if I would get to browse through all the old ones at home I believe I would be able to match a lot of items that have been sold multiple times at various Dai Tōken Ichi. Of course the logical reason for this is that at the top level there is not that huge amount of swords that would be available for purchase. It is very easy to track Jūyō and Tokubetsu Jūyō items and as almost all (at least public) high end sales are NBTHK papered, you can see swords going from dealer to dealer.

[Hoshi]

It's all supply and demand. There is no such thing as a "fair price" - there is only the the price that at least one participant in the market is willing to pay. That's all it takes. 

 

Top items are getting rarer. This is normal. This is what happens in all major art fields where there is a limited supply. The rate of attrition is essentially museum accessions, and this is a direct effect of whales who can afford to create museums or contribute to existing museums for social prestige. At the very end of this process, there is no more market so to speak since nothing is for sale. 

 

Today if you want to acquire a Ko-Bizen Tomonari tachi, there is no market. If one does come up, it'll probably be one of the last to be sold, ever. This means price = n/a. 

 

As a result of museum accessions, prices increase, it's just supply and demand. The buy-side is not happy about this, as the prices aren't "fair" anymore. At the DTI, there was a truly lovely TJ Norishige for 36M and TJ Yukimitsu for 38M. Everyone grumbles. We don't want to adjust our estimates upwards when on the buy-side. We keep remembering last year's opportunity at 25M yen, where it already felt unfairly expensive so we passed. At the end of the day, the market doesn't care about feelings of fairness. 

 

As a result of items being more difficult to find, dealers hold onto their inventories. Why shouldn't they? They know that they can't refill their inventory easily, so they slap a big price and enter a staring contest with the buy-side. Within the crowd of grumbling buy-side people, one will eventually pay up and then the new price is set, to the great dismay of the others. 

 

There will always be a steady flow of Tadayoshi, Ko-Mihara, Bungo Takeda, Shinto Waks, Uda, etc. These aren't going anywhere, they constitute the majority of the items exchanged. The pressure concentrates at the top of the field, this is normal and healthy. 

 

In fact, Nihonto suffers from a protracted 'right tail' of the price distribution. Is it fair that one can purchase a great, unique masterpiece from one of the top smiths to have ever existed, with Daimyo provenance, for the cash equivalent of three dozen 5K$ Ko-Uda blades of mediocre quality? Probably not. Look at any other art field, and the delta between the top and the low-end is at least two order of magnitude higher. This is a great market anomaly. 

 

I will say we are more fortunate than ever, with the great democratization of information, and the fact that the right tail of the price distribution hasn't yet caught up with the expected power law that tends to govern those things. 

 

Even if great items are becoming harder to find and more expensive, we live in the golden age.

 

Enjoy it while it lasts, because the market anomaly could very well resolve itself in the next decade. 

 

[Lewis B]

I would also say the recent upswing in the Japanese economy could also have an impact in the short to medium turn. After 8 years Japanese banks have moved away from negative interest rates. Positive economic sentiment is a huge driver in peoples discretional buying decisions.  If you feel affluent you are more like to spend and probably pay over market. Similarly sellers are more motivated to sell to liquidate assets if needed in an economic downturn.

[nulldevice]

On 11/18/2024 at 9:17 AM, Lewis B said:

I suddenly realise how much I miss Darcy Brockbank and Yuhindo.com. That was THE place for Westerners to see and possibly acquire 7-9/10 blades from top schools and smiths. 

Are there any surviving copies of his blog? I re-read the tribute post to him and there were talks of backing up his content but I don't see anywhere that that happened. 

I would love to read his posts/studies on nihonto and top level swords. His comments here on swords and shinsa from old threads have taught me so much. 

[Natichu]

47 minutes ago, nulldevice said:

Are there any surviving copies of his blog? I re-read the tribute post to him and there were talks of backing up his content but I don't see anywhere that that happened. 

I would love to read his posts/studies on nihonto and top level swords. His comments here on swords and shinsa from old threads have taught me so much. 

I believe you can access it on the Internet Archive, but also here (a bit more user friendly):

 

https://onihonto.com...onto-ca-yuhindo-com/

 

I believe both are lacking many of the photos, but the text is there. 

[GeorgeLuucas]

There was a good discussion about it recently, but I haven’t heard if there has been any updates. I know Ray’s site, Swords of Japan, has some articles.
 

The below thread has the links, and also some good photos + discussion about it. Really good stuff in there.
 

All the best,

-Sam