The dark future of Nihonto

[Emil]

I've been thinking about this for a while, and today I came across Tsuruta's blog post where he mentioned a similar concern. I wanted to get your perspectives on it:

 

> "Recently, I've noticed that the prices of Japanese swords have risen considerably. Expensive items are being purchased from overseas, and Japanese swords are now being sold as commodities. They have become investment targets. Unfortunately, Japanese swords may become less common in Japan in the future, with many foreigners likely to own them. Foreigners have also increased significantly as traders, and they possess considerable knowledge. Items that were once part of Japanese culture, such as netsuke, woodblock prints, inro, and old coins, have mostly flowed overseas. However, these items are well-preserved abroad, where they are treated with care. Japan's humid climate is not the best environment for preserving Japanese swords. However, Japanese people have always taken great care to maintain their swords. Thanks to the careful management by daimyo (feudal lords) for over a thousand years, the swords have survived without rusting."

 

– Tsuruta's blog, September 2024

 

 

 

In the last decade or so, there's been a surge in international interest in Japanese swords. Reproduction companies are popping up everywhere, and more people than ever are buying Nihonto from Japan. Business is booming for Japanese sword dealers, with rising prices and high demand.

 

The problem is that this trend isn't sustainable. Every year, thousands of antique Nihonto leave Japan, and there's no clear data, but the number of swords returning is just a fraction of what's being exported. At this pace, it seems inevitable that Japan's supply of antique swords will be depleted.

 

Ideally, these swords would go to serious collectors who would care for them and ensure future generations can appreciate them. But even if the first buyer is responsible, without the deep cultural respect for swords ingrained in Japan, there are no guarantees that, after the collector passes, their heirs will recognize the value of the sword. There's a real risk that an NBTHK-certified sword could end up rusting in a garage, or worse. Some tourists buy these swords without any serious commitment to their care.

 

This could be the next "exticinction" of Nihonto, similar to what happened during the American occupation of Japan, only slower and less obvious.

 

Not to mention the obvious problem in the West with Nihonto getting mixed up with reproduction and chinese fakes.

 

How long will it take before the Japanese government reacts to the mass export of their cultural heritage?

 

 

If I were to propose a solution to sustain the Nihonto market, it would be to make it harder to purchase antiques by establishing some kind of licensing system—only serious collectors would be able to buy them. At the same time, the production restrictions on Shinsakuto should be lifted, allowing smiths to produce more new blades. Most of the lesser serious buyers, like tourists, don’t care if the sword is from the Muromachi period or a Gendaito; they just want a "real" Japanese sword.

 

In fact, just like the American GIs during WWII, tourists often prefer "shiny" swords. That’s why many Americans brought back Showa-to over older swords during the war (p71, Modern Japanese Swords and Swordsmiths, 2002).

 

Right now, at a price range of 500,000 JPY, a tourist can’t buy a new Shinsakuto, so they end up buying lower-quality antiques and wakizashi. These are the first swords to perish in the hands of uneducated or uncommitted owners.

 

By lifting the production cap on new swords, volumes could increase, prices could come down, and tourists would be guided toward new swords. This would allow serious collectors to focus on preserving the antiques. It could also help the Koshirae makers by boosting demand.

 

Google search volume in the category Katana (group of similar search words)

 

 

Please share your thoughts on the subject, I'd love to hear the your opinions

[French nihonto]

Interesting topic. For the past 1 or 2 years, I have seen a change, to give an example, on eBay there are many more blades for sale of varying quality, but also quality blades, for huge prices. Something that was less common before.
Everyone with a little money can find a beautiful blade.
For conservation, which is our main concern, the first subject to address in my opinion, are beginner collectors, who can be poorly informed, and poorly trained. We all had our first blade one day but how many times do I still see nihonto owners, often young collectors, scratching the tip when putting the blade back in the Saya. Who speak in front of the blade, who take the blade out of the Saya by rubbing the Shinogi and not on the Mune. And no need to go far for that, just look on YouTube, I recently saw a man explaining how he oils his nihonto. It shows a man in his garden, spraying an old quality blade with a WD40 type spray, without removing the tsuka and the Habaki, and spraying the blade, the Habaki, and probably a little bit of the tsuka too. The excess is removed from the blade and the Habaki with an old T-shirt. The blade is put back in the Saya with a Habaki probably still oiled. This is dangerous for him and for the blade because the Habaki holds the blade in the Saya and must remain completely dry, in addition to the fact that the oil on the Habaki will eventually damage the wood of the Saya.

All this shows who has a problem with training and knowledge. In our respective professions, when we have to use a new software, a new mechanical tool, a new vehicle, when we want to keep a weapon at home. We have to follow a training. We spend our lives training. But to own an 800 year old historical blade, which is also an object that can be dangerous to oneself, no training is necessary? Why not set up a training course, at the end of which a certificate would be issued, which would be necessary to purchase a blade. The training would be provided by experienced collectors in person or by online training on a site developed for this purpose. with a historical part, a part on the do's and don'ts, how to properly maintain the blade, how to store it properly, etc. with videos and explanations. This would allow a collector or a merchant to ask for the training certificate to be sure that the buyer is well trained to take care of a nihonto. For some dealers who sell high value blades, this certificate could be mandatory to place an order, etc. For experienced collectors it will be easy and quick, and for beginners it will encourage them to learn more and not buy a blade impulsively. This is just one idea among others, but there are many things we could implement in the future.

[Brian]

I really don't have a any concerns at all. I suspect there are still hundreds of thousands or even million+ swords in collections in Japan, enough to sustain the market there for decades. There are also plenty of buyers inside Japan, based on what you see at the DTI etc. It is natural for those in the West to accumulate collectibles. This is no different from any other artworks, and we have not seen this in any other field. I think it's good for the community and the preservation of these items.
I have serious doubts Japan will restrict exports in any way. It's more likely that other countries increase regulation and a lot flow back to Japan.
Not something I worry about in my lifetime or several generations further on.

[ROKUJURO]

Emil,

good ideas, but not realistic as far as lower GENDATO prices are concerned. Making more blades does not necessarily mean lower prices as everything has do be hand-made - no short-cuts possible! This starts with the SUMI-KIRI of the charcoal, and does not end with the necessary repairs in the forge. A price of  5.000.-- is really very cheap for a new traditionally made sword-blade, taking into consideration the prices of the necessary materials and the long work in the forge, but also the costs of polish, HABAKI and SHIRA-SAYA which cannot be done by the smith.

So, I don't think more and cheaper GENDAITO would help the situation. I think it is a cultural problem. In the West, I see BUDDHA statues as decoration in restaurants and flower shops, and swords are - sometimes - used as a cool decoration in private rooms, even naked blades are displayed. This attitude is not restricted to the West. If I remember correctly, a rich Japanese collector bought Vincent van Gogh's "Irises" for $ 150.000.000.--, and announced the painting would be buried with him one day.

We cannot "possess" art that should - and could -  live for centuries and be a pleasure to see for many generations, but this has to be understood. 'Learning culture' means being open to other's attitudes, opinions, and ways of life. 

I think, a good place to study and learn is here at the NMB. A huge amount of facts and knowledge is shared for those who want to learn. But, as the saying goes: YOU CAN LEAD A HORSE TO THE WATER BUT YUO CANNOT MAKE IT DRINK.....    

[Benjamin]

I understand and share your fears and sadness, but can't omit that I'm a part of the problem being myself a collector. I own swords and didn't give any instruction about them if something happen to me. I'll think about it but .. how ? who will control and regulate in complicate situations.

 

Contrary to Europe and USA, Japan is probably shy in promoting international laws, and that's now an international matter.

 

By the way I think the problem is not monetary, you can be poor and educated, as rich and not respectful. Add that in world liberal economic market, governements or associations can't regulate price of goods, the market do it.

 

But I think a few things could be done :

 

1 - Nihonto should be declared of UNESCO intangible cultural Heritage. As to make a recognized difference between nihonto and non traditional or non Japanese katana.

2 - Japan should promote law against counterfaint or false declaration as France did with luxury goods : in that case goods are confiscated at borders. It shouldn't be illegal to trade a chinese katana (some are good for what they intend to be) but illegal to declare it as a nihonto.

3 - All papered sword (by recognized organisations) should be under some sort of copyright law.

4 - All papered sword could be regulated as "historic property", it exist in France as exemple for medieval castle : you can own an "historic property" castle : you own it monetary value, you have enjoyment to live in it, but you can't alterate it and have a responsability in it preservation.

 

Enhancing world recognition would enhance the price in a second time.

 

[sabiji]

I see a dark future for Nihonto in other ways. There is the tightening of gun laws in many countries. More and more shipping service providers are refusing to ship swords.
 And another thing, the collector scene is not getting any younger. I really can't imagine a “sell-out” of swords in Japan.

[Alex A]

What Thomas said.

 

Think Aoi have bigger issues to worry about.

 

Just feels like one big hassle and worry importing and exporting swords. Certainly outweighing the ownership, for me.

 

I buy my last one, then thats it.

 

Sadly

[Mushin]

Add to this a growing number of U.S. postal thefts that American law enforcement has no interest in dealing with. Shipping swords by U.S. mail in or out of the country has become increasingly risky. I personally have been hit once and know some who've been hit two and three times. This is not only bad for dealers (all are aware of the problem) but also other artisans in Japan, from polishers to habaki makers. Many collectors I know want to upgrade some of their blades but aren't sending their blades to shinsa, not because of issues with the hombu, but because shipping swords to and from the U.S  has become so stressful. This does no favors for the hobby.

[Okan]

Perhaps this is a matter best left for the Japanese people to address, as they are the true custodians of their cultural heritage. 

 

[Emil]

Thanks for sharing your perspectives everyone.

 

Obviously we're not going to change anything here but it's been interesting to read your thoughts on the topic.