Collectibles in general are falling off

[drbvac]

It is odd as you get older you note many collectibles come and go in fashion. From antique furniture, Royal Dalton figurines, Hummel figures, Silver items, etc etc at one time were highly desirable have changed to where other than collectors of the same age - you can't give them away. Macdonalds Toys are worth more on some markets than Royal Dalton figures that cost hundreds of dollars when new. 

 

Anyone think the market is changing for Nihonto as the younger generations are not interested in any of the stuff I tended to hoard or purchase for my wife and friends. 

[ChrisW]

We either get the newer generation interested in them now.. or they go to scrap when we're gone.

In general though, I've seen an uptick in interest in nihonto lately. But we cannot get complacent, the duty falls to all of us to get younger people into the hobby. Or as I said will happen: they'll end up unwanted and will turn to dust in the wind.

So, ignore generational differences, ladies and gentlemen: reach out, educate, share, sell them at a reasonable price, and do your part to make sure the things we love live on past us.

[PNSSHOGUN]

Don't think we need to worry about Nihonto, there will always be enough media that younger generations enjoy that feature them. Just don't haul off on speculative buying of tonnes of that ridiculous funko bop crap thinking it will be worth something in a few years......!

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2023/03/07/funko-pop-figure-inventory-hits-landfill/11420277002/

 

[Baba Yaga]

Inflation has taken it's toll with the younger generation and limited discretionary funds. Young people have a 5 year job expectancy and have to move around. Phones and electronics are also a budget expense.  Not much money left for expensive hobbies like Nihonto.  

[Guest Simon R]

The touken joshi  girls are still going strong over here in Japan so, who knows - maybe they will buy a real one when they have the earning power or pass the passion on to their children? 🤞

 

https://Japan-forward.com/touken-joshi-girls-are-infatuated-with-Japanese-swords-and-its-good/

[1kinko]

I note there aren’t too many kids posting here. The fortunate few who were able to collect when they were young are few and far between. So I wouldn’t worry about the interest in nihonto fading away just yet. When they get the finances (your finances) and education (?) they’ll discover fine art (and hopefully don’t piss it away on Jeff Koons). 

[Mark S.]

It only matters that I enjoy what I am collecting now.  Someday that won’t matter… why would I worry about what others collect?

[John C]

Militaria in general seems to be a strong market. I wasn't at Vegas this past January, though it seems it went well.

John C.

[robinalexander]

Interesting Brian ... history shows that buying and selling is all about timing and I wouldn't think for a minute that something that's worthless now will be worthless sometime in the future.  Similarly, something that's worth a bucket load now could reach a very modest price down the track.

 

In terms of swords, Nihonto was mentioned but I would also like to put a spoke in for the humble 95 and this is just a thought.  I haven't seen any decline in their worldwide pricing in the last 5 years.  I hear any swords generally are getting harder to get in UK (therefore more expensive?) and I also understand that, for known legal reasons, there are very few, if any, Type 95's in Japan. Accordingly, they should command a relatively high price IF laws are relaxed and there is no flooding of the Japanese market.  Just speculation.

 

But I am collecting not investing ... but it would be nice to get my money back when the time comes.

 

 

 

[Bugyotsuji]

Every time there's an earthquake here, collectibles are falling off.

 

I guess the ever-shrinking pool must help jack up the value once more though.

 

There does seem to be a premium though for objects that have been salted away for 20 or 30 years.

[Bugyotsuji]

1 hour ago, Stephen said:

The shelf?

Apologies to Brian the thread starter for the facetious drift, but yes, actually this does happen. In fact I have dropped the question into conversations with collectors here after earthquakes. “Hope nothing broke overnight…” etc. It’s usually objects displayed on shelves or in glass cases. Possibly not a clever diplomatic move, though. Better to keep schtum.

Earthquake, floods, war and fire must have destroyed so much over Japan’s history.

 

 

[Matsunoki]

Sadly, so much will depend on whether or not they remain legal to own. I wouldn’t put anything past our ***** govt (uk) and the same might apply elsewhere. It only takes one or two attacks that mention “samurai sword” (which is probably a piece of Chinese crap anyway) and the do-gooders start screaming and running for the hills shouting “ban”.

However on the bright side, as long as common sense prevails (oh yeah!) I think these wonderful objects will continue as highly desirable historical works of art…..but maybe not as sound investments. We can already see the market slowing, or perhaps more accurately, price becoming a more important factor. 

 

[IBot]

I agree with others that one of the primary reasons for the apparent lack of interest amongst the young are the prices being asked for anything of quality. I was fortunate in being bitten by the bug during the late 1950's when there was not only a lack of interest in Nihonto but a positive aversion to them in the arms and armour collecting fraternity. This attitude had arisen not only from memories of the recent conflict, but with the the opinion created by multitude of cheap Japanese items that had flooded the West in the pre-war years giving rise to the 'Japanese rubbish' attitude. During that era, Japanese swords of all descriptions were plentiful in antique shops, usually stuck in umbrella stands or piled up with bayonets on the tables at arms fairs. Here in the UK we are fortunate in that there is a residue of good Nihonto surviving from the late 19th century when 'Japanism' was fashionable. However, the prices being asked can be eye-watering. At a recent arms fair prices ranged from £1,000 - £2,000 for what were really only average Nihonto.  That is a heck of an investment.

 

As for Colin's point about a ban by the UK, don't forget our lords and masters were very badly bitten by their knee-jerk decision to ban hand guns. Oh did that blow up in their faces. I think our swords are safe enough for now.

Ian Bottomley

[Stephen]

Apologies to all especially  Bugs.

I think it's time for old dad to go to the rubber room.

[Winchester]

OP, there is a lot to unpack here... My opinion--worth the price of admission--is that yes, Nihonto prices are going down. This does not mean that they won't go up, decrease further, have less buyers in the market going forward (or more). Plainly, no one can predict the future. This is why my personal philosophy to collecting is does it bring me joy; do I like it/need it...need is a funny word. 

 

On the subject of younger collectors, this can change overnight. All it takes is one pop culture phenomenon; that is, popular movie franchise...whatever. Collectors and people in general are becoming more demanding in their tastes and preferences. Recall when sushi (in US) was hard to find, Mexican hot sauces which are now available most places, avocado...or how about in the 80's when most middle class were wearing the same 'brown colored clothes' which may have a brand tag label on it...now choices are endless. 

     --> In my collecting experience, as a younger person and newer collector, there were a couple nihonto that I significantly over paid for...like someone said above, let's make sure it is fair. This can turn a collector sour very quickly...

 

      --> Also, in my personal experience, I have received expert commentary privately from collectors worldwide who have significant investments in this and other hobbies...for a total newbie like myself. I am thankful for this feedback and direction.

 

Ultimately, I do not have all the answers...but my recommendation would be to simply enjoy nihonto collecting at a level you can afford or justify and simply not care about the costs. This should be fun and not a stressful experience.

 

As collectors, we can sometimes overlook the basics and the reasons why we started. Rhetorically, was it to temporarily store money in the hopes you get it back or make a profit?

 

[Tsuku]

Prices at DTI were relatively high this year, maybe driven by dealers trying to capitalize on a strong dollar, but I also think dealer inventories at the high end are pretty low.... So I think the market at the high end is quite strong, and we are seeing some upward drift in prices as a result.

[Larason2]

I agree that the younger generations have less money to spend on collectibles, but also that their tastes are different than the older generations that buy a lot of these collectibles. I think that if that isn't shaking up the market now, it will eventually. However, I spend a fair bit of time also on the Sword Buyer's Guide forum, and what I see there is that there is strong interest among those who buy reproductions in nihonto and tosogu, just that most of them cannot afford them! So that may shake up the market at some point (if not now), but I think that for the younger generation they will at least be valued, and not thrown on the scrap pile! There are also a fair bit of collectors of reproductions who also have a few nihonto, so identity in the two groups isn't necessarily exclusive. I think a big driver of the sale of reproductions is that learning the art of the Japanese sword is popular, however no one wants to cut with their nihontos! Given the choice, I think most members of the younger generation would prefer a real nihonto to a reproduction for display or collection any day.

[Baba Yaga]

Look at the restoration prices. They're very close to the costs 35 years ago. It may seem information has changed, but very little has. 

 Japanese Shinsa has actually been watered down over the last few decades. You'd have to submit a blade with the right polish to be considered for papers. 

 

[John C]

Carlos brings up an interesting point. As reproductions get better and better, particularly in the WW2 market, will that water down the market? And what if they get so good it is too difficult to tell the difference?

This happened in one segment of the collectible document market when a very expert forger of Mormon papers flooded the market with fakes. His works are still in some collections and values have dropped because of it.

John C.

[Tsuku]

2 hours ago, Baba Yaga said:

Japanese Shinsa has actually been watered down over the last few decades. You'd have to submit a blade with the right polish to be considered for papers. 

The Juyo and Tokuju shinsa have been exceptionally difficult the last few years. Blades that one would normally expect to sail through – koto, top smiths in top schools, kenzen, zaimei – still failed.

[Matsunoki]

On 3/10/2023 at 11:51 AM, IBot said:

As for Colin's point about a ban by the UK, don't forget our lords and masters were very badly bitten by their knee-jerk decision to ban hand guns. Oh did that blow up in their faces. I think our swords are safe enough for now.

Ian, I guess you are referring to the huge ££compensations they agreed to pay out after banning our handguns?  Well they sure learnt from that…..when they recently blanket banned the sale of ivory including wonderful antique items (with a few piffling exceptions) they did so with no compensation……tough luck for collectors who were facing losing a lifetimes investment. I personally know of collectors who have “lost” hundreds of thousands as a result. Not just Japanese (netsuke, okimono, shibayama etc) but stunning French and Low Countries carvings, medieval and religious items etc etc. 

If they decide to ban our swords (or any other weapons) they will do so without any compensation and without any conscience and, as with ivory, will ignore any amount of objection or advice no matter how justified.

I hope you are right!

[Baba Yaga]

5 minutes ago, Tsuku said:

The Juyo and Tokuju shinsa have been exceptionally difficult the last few years. Blades that one would normally expect to sail through – koto, top smiths in top schools, kenzen, zaimei – still failed.

 

Juyo / top smiths has been and i assume always be an exception to the quick paper rule. Those swords are few and far between for "start up collector"

 

Chinese reproductions: The business model is make it cheap in mass and trick the new treasure hunter.  No need for putting a lot of time in trying to trick the experienced collector when a sucker is born every minute. With that said, savvy collectors sometimes get the blunt end when the heart overwhelms the brain.    

[Larason2]

John and Baba,

 

I think it will be very difficult for reproductions to ever get good enough that experts won't be able to tell the difference. The key thing there is polish. There are actually Chinese smiths who can make laminated and differentially hardened swords, along with koshirae suppliers in China that can custom make every part of a katana including the saya. If they were polished by a real togisho, then they would be really difficult to tell apart from a real Nihonto. However, a real togisho would never polish them, that's why they're so strict on authenticity, and there's no one in China that is willing to put in the work a togisho does. Also, those kind of swords start at something like $4000 USD, so at that point, you might as well be buying a nihonto. $2000 is actually a pretty reasonable amount per hour to polish a sword to the detail a togisho polishes it to, and each togisho actually has a treasure trove of expensive stones and other equipment that is very difficult to replicate anywhere outside of Japan. 

 

Baba is also right that there is a substantial market for low cost clones, and a fair number of people who think they're getting "the real thing." The day they try to cut with it and it snaps in half, or the when they show it to someone knowledgeable who tells them they have a "mall sword," or the day they try and sell it and find it's worthless, the illusion is dispelled.

[Geraint]

Dear All.

 

Some random thoughts:  Collectables do come and go, art less so.  My late father in law got burnt, pardon the pun, with cigarette cards.  He collected when there was a market and had some fine and rare sets which sold for peanuts because smoking related collectables had fallen through the floor.  These may come back into fashion as their age becomes greater and they become scarcer.  How many times have you overheard in an antique shop, "Oh my grandparents had some of these but we threw them out!"  

Japanese swords are inextricably entwined with Samurai culture in a way that many modern collectables are not.  The heroic warrior is a figure who has endured in culture, just look at the number and popularity of the films, TV shows and games which revolve around such idealised characters.  In that context the samurai have a pretty secure future and so do their swords.

 

From time to time I have the privilege of being invited into schools and colleges to talk about arms and armour; (it helps that both my girls are history teachers).  Most recently I spoke with a groupof students using swords as a vehicle for discussing Japan and colonialism.  I can assure you that there is no lack of interest, indeed fascination among them.  The demand for selfies wearing the Hineno kabuto that I take in is high,  among staff and students!  The feedback from students and sometimes parents is also very positive.

 

I am sure that affordability is an issue, especially at the moment, and the generous supply of fakes will put some off but I have no doubt that there will be a new generation of collectors.  If not, well so what?  I made life choices that ensured I would never have the money to collect serious swords and fittings but over the years I have had endless hours of pleasure with what I have collected and researched.  From time to time I do consider what will happen to it all and would hope to at least recoup what I have spent over the years but if I or my executors don't then what does it matter?  I'm very sure that they will do better than they would if I had played golf and spent the same amount of money on that. No offense to the golfers among us but I'm sure you catch my drift.  I've had, and for the moment continue to have, an absolute blast studying and collecting.  I spent money on it when I could and enjoyed every minute.

 

Well, that's enough of that!

 

All the best.

 

 

 

[Bugyotsuji]

Only tangential to the subject but I was at an antiques fair yesterday near Himeji and one dealer confided in me that he'd had an amazing day at Toji in February. (As you know Toji Temple south of Kyoto Station is the monthly venue for one of the three(?) biggest antiques fairs in Kyoto.)

Well, I do not know this guy too well, but we do chat a bit when I spot his stall.

 

"Bonanza", he said. "Sold so much stuff. Foreigners are at last coming back to Japan in style." ......... or words to that effect. I picked up an interesting brass object and enquired about the price. "Take it", he said. "It's a present."

 

It's been a grim three years for antiques traders.

[Shuko]

I think the prices for all types of Japanese swords, armour etc has steadily gone up in the past year from what I have seen sold on eBay and auction houses around the globe. 

 

My aim is to preserve and save as many of the cheaper items as I can manage to buy; thus stopping the owners from just letting them don't rust away. I have never sold any swords except a WW2 naval sabre styled one and an old European bayonet, in fact they were traded in to help get a katana. 

 

Unsure if my son will keep the collection intact and preserve the items or just sell them at auction to pay off some of his home mortgage. 

 

Collecting Japanese smith's works of art is a real pleasure and you sure get a lot of "bang for your buck" with Nihonto when compared to art and sculptures etc. 

[Kiita]

Japanese cultural influence via video games, anime, etc. in America and, I think, the Anglosphere broadly, increases greatly the younger one is and is almost overwhelming in generation Z and generation Alpha. I can't see the desire for and interest in nihonto dropping much over time as a result of this. The real issue however is money, put simply, we're pretty broke as a generation and the prospects seems unlikely to improve long term at the moment. I know I for one would like to own a real Japanese sword in the future, especially after an older friend of mine asked me to help him identify a wakizashi he inherited and the excellent gentlemen here translated the mei for me, but right now all I can do is spectate as an enthusiast. When I had that sword in my hand, as rough as it was, I understood exactly why all of you are so obsessed with them, it was a powerful and fascinating thing. Some day.

 

You see this in a lot of areas, not the least of which is cars and car enthusiast culture, though that has a few other factors (namely that the cash for clunkers program basically murdered the lower level of the used car market), but if you've ever wondered why younger people are putting off getting driver's licenses lately, it's because no one can afford a car or gas at the moment. That and there's not really anything to do these days, so there's little reason to go out. Interestingly, the only local car organization or club I've seen with an average age under 30 was inspired by Japanese Touge driving.

 

As far as other collectibles in general, I think it's a safe bet that interest in anything involving weapons or military surplus is likely to stay reasonably strong. Beyond that, I think they're significantly less popular. Anything to do with mid to late 20th c. popular culture is probably going to be utterly worthless when the Boomer generation begins to disappear. 

 

This is of course only my opinion as a member of the "younger people", I can't quote any data to support it, but it might at least provide a little insight into the general sentiment as I perceive it currently.

[Bazza]

Aaron wrote:

 > the cash for clunkers program basically murdered the lower level of the used car market

 

The scrap drive for WW2 in the USA took out A LOT of older classic cars, particularly I've read the Town Car, where the driver/chauffeur sits in the weather...  Coming forward I have to almost rub my eyes when I see what is in the huge eWaste bins these days.

 

BaZZa.

[rematron]

9 hours ago, Kiita said:

Anything to do with mid to late 20th c. popular culture is probably going to be utterly worthless when the Boomer generation begins to disappear. 

 

With the exception of movie posters, comic books, baseball cards, bicycles, gasoline era signage and artifacts and cars, shoes, airplanes, clothing, toys, motorcycles, watches, etc. Pop culture is circular.  Trends often come back around and when they do, collectors want to collect the items that correspond to the origins and evolution of that trend.  A perfect example is collecting vinyl records.  There are plenty of people in newer generations who are not collectors just as not everyone is a collector in general.  But for the collectors among your generation, they will want stuff from the mid to late 20th century.  Maybe not Happy Meal toys and crap but I could be wrong about that as well.  My two cents.

[Alex A]

On 3/10/2023 at 4:16 AM, John C said:

Militaria in general seems to be a strong market. I wasn't at Vegas this past January, though it seems it went well.

John C.

 

Agree. See it at the arms fairs with the likes of WW2 stuff. Pretty recent in terms of history and i get the impression folk are thinking seriously about long term investment

 

Nihonto collecting is well established and it ticks over at its own pace, somewhat very slowly. You don't buy expecting to make a profit, there's just not the interest, in comparison.

 

You see the difference.

 

Oh and by the way, see quite a lot of young ones at the fairs.