Sword Appraisal Accuracy Over Time

[hddennis]

Looking at an Oei Period tachi with NBTHK Tokubetsu Hozon Kanteisho  AND an appraisal by Cary Condell in 2001 saying  sword's value was $25,000.  My question is where would that value likely be in today's market? Just looking for a rough idea.

 

Howard Dennis

 

 

[Ray Singer]

Howard, this is a vague description to go off. There are some very important details which would be helpful to know, such as who the smith is, condition and quality of the sword, presence of a mei (which is likely there for a Tokubetsu Hozon Muromachi blade), whether the blade is ubu, presence of koshirae, etc. 

[hddennis]

  On 12/30/2022 at 10:35 PM, Ray Singer said:

Howard, this is a very vague description to go on. There are some very important details which would be helpful to share, such as who the smith is, condition and quality of the sword, presence of a mei (which is likely there for a tokubetsu Hozon Muromachi blade), whether the blade is ubu, presence of koshirae, etc. 

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Thanks Ray, I knew I was probably shooting myself in the foot by asking such a vague question but I will probably end up with this by next week BUT it's not finalized yet so I don't want to jinx the deal by releasing too much information yet. I promise I'll tell all if I end up with it as it will be the best sword I've ever owned.  Guess in my excitement I'm suffering from "premature evaluation" !

 

Howard Dennis

[David Flynn]

Don't forget, the sword market is depressed at present.

 

[hddennis]

  On 12/30/2022 at 11:29 PM, David Flynn said:

Don't forget, the sword market is depressed at present.

 

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Thanks David , I was just hoping to get an idea of HOW depressed. 

 

Howard Dennis

[Jussi Ekholm]

I think that is roughly around 3M Yen with currrent exchange rate. Here are some tachi around that period in c. that price for comparison. The list is pretty heavy on Bizen... You should be able to get a very nice sword for that budget.

 

Nobukuni: https://web.archive.org/web/20180726112338/http://www.kusanaginosya.com/SHOP/347.html

Morikage: https://web.archive.org/web/20130702233056/http:/www.iidakoendo.com/info/item/a221.htm

Hidemitsu: http://www.tokensibata.co.jp/pdf/yuhin_94.pdf

Morimitsu: https://iidakoendo.com/10254/

Yasumitsu: https://www.aoijapan.net/tachi-yasumitsu-discounted/

[hddennis]

Thank You Jussi, I'll check these out.

[Rivkin]

My very blind guess would be 11K USD.

[PNSSHOGUN]

You are starting to look at Juyo level swords at this price range, best to look very carefully at what else is available and comparative for this significant investment.

[rematron]

  On 12/31/2022 at 2:40 AM, PNSSHOGUN said:

You are starting to look at Juyo level swords at this price range, best to look very carefully at what else is available and comparative for this significant investment.

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THIS

[hddennis]

  On 12/31/2022 at 4:06 AM, rematron said:

THIS

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???

[rematron]

  On 12/31/2022 at 6:32 AM, hddennis said:

???

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I just thought that was good advice so I copied @PNSSHOGUN’s post and stated ‘THIS’

[Brian]

Pretty sure most valuations are like diamond or jewellery valuations...real value is about half. That's not an estimate, just saying that valuations are likely more insurance value estimates than actual market value.
That said, TH is a good start, condition will be vital, and make sure the fittings are good enough to carry a chunk of the estimate.
But sounds like a good sword. Only a good examination will determine if it's a Juyo candidate or not. Old school collectors may have only taken it to the point that it was verified.

[Rivkin]

If asked what is easily sellable for 25K from Oei I personally imagine a lesser known but first tier smith like Heianjo (Oei+) or at least nidai Masahiro... In both cases the blades would have to be dated as otherwise one has to deal with the question "I think its later Muromachi".

But dated blade like this is an exceptional find.

 

So its most likely Bizen blade, which is of the order of 90% of preserved signed ubu Oei daito.

In Japan in the first tier shop getting 25K USD for those is doable. In the US I think 9-15K is more of an expectation. And it will not sell in a moment.

[hddennis]

Brian and Rivkin, thank you both for responding. I respect both your opinions and will use them in my decision.

Appreciate the help,

Howard Dennis