Market conditions?

[tokashikibob]

Howdy Nihontophiles,    I've not been hunting blades the last 4 years or so unless they fell into my lap.   Recently I have followed a few online auctions (not ebay) for pretty common gunto and gendaito military blades amongst others and the prices seem to have increased maybe 30% or so the last 4 years.     So,  what is the state of the market these days for Nihonto?

[Baba Yaga]

Start with the price of restoration which has been the same for the last few decades. The Japanese market excludes military blades. The market is what ever one can get, thus no set market.  Going back into time until now most have a buying threshold of $5K - $7K. Over $7K, buying becomes more serious. 

 

I said most, not all. 

[Matsunoki]

Hello Bob…from the somewhat gloomy UK 

Just my opinion…..but I think it’s a buyers market right now and likely to become moreso. With all the “issues” going on in the world I think most people will become more cautious with their cash. This has been reflected in some recent high profile auctions where a lot of “over-estimated” stuff failed to sell. On the “for sale” section of this forum we often see nice items that go through several price reductions before they sell….or maybe they don’t even sell. That’s not a criticism of the sellers, but it is an indication of current demand vs supply dynamics.

There will be exceptions though……anything “sleepy” in an auction will get chased by everyone hoping for a bargain and thus end up expensive especially with the damned auctioneers commission added on. Another exception is when something seriously good comes along at a sensible price(whatever that is). The very best things usually sell well and hold their value better than “ordinary” items. There will always be some seriously wealthy buyers for top quality.

”Run of the mill” is likely to face price/value reduction maybe for a few years.

But we don’t buy these wonderful things for investment do we?…unless we are crazy!

Be really interested to see what others say, especially any dealers opinions.

All the best

Colin

 

[drbvac]

Most collectors are not investing in Nihonto or if they are they will be disappointed. Dealers will have problems selling blades between 5000 and 25000 as they are a little pricy except for people with a high disposable income and over that is another group of purchasers all together. Unless an individual collector gets into a situation where they absolutely need the money they will rarely sell for less than they paid. They may not make anything but will hold on until they at least feel they didn't lose.

 

Japanese edged weapons are a very small piece of the collectable world and for everyone I am sure you have found to get something nice - they are hard to find at a really low price - however they are also hard to sell and the usual mark up for most through dealers has to be close to 50%.  Almost as bad as the depreciation on a new car.

 

In any event - we all rent them from the next silly buyer while we own them and can enjoy them while we have them in hand.

[Peter Bleed]

I am interested in "collections and collecting" so I am finding this thread interesting. Thank you!

Japanese sword collecting in the US was basically "treasure hunting" for a long while. I think that era is over and that the sword "market" has become "rational." At least the distribution of 'good' swords is being rationalized. Excellent stuff has gone to Japan  where it is appreciated and rationally valued. If we want it, we have to pay for it at that level.

Along with good stuff,  a bunch of bad stuff also went to Japan where experts have seen and rejected it. There is not much of a  market for 'bad' stuff in Japan so it is washing BACK on toward the US and world market. I think we have to assume that anything leaving Japan - without papers and at anything like a bargain price - has to be considered to be "bad."

Peter

[Mark S.]

My opinion only… katana and tanto market has held price, although I think there are fewer buyers due to economic issues.  Sellers are willing to hold them hoping for future upturn.  Wakizashi market extremely soft except for exceptional pieces.  I find wakizashi a good choice if you want to inexpensively study characteristics of blades (hamon, hada, etc, & knowing you may not get $$$ back when selling) but katana and tanto are more ‘collectible’.  

[David Flynn]

From what I've noticed is, the Market is soft on everything except top end stuff.

[PNSSHOGUN]

Many are looking at buying directly from Japan with the very favorable exchange rates.

[waljamada]

Context: I focus on the lower price range of the market so my experiences/opinions will be from that perspective.

 

I started collecting nihonto about 4/5 years ago and I don't think prices are up 30%.  There's always more sellers asking more then somethings worth than otherwise but if you watch auctions then prices have been pretty stable with some fluctuation. 

 

For a specific example, 3 years ago on eBay I bought a Koa Isshin Mantetsu in Type 98 for $1700 and I just saw one that also went for $1700 a few days ago; both werent perfect but still solid pieces.  Also seen them go for a good chunk more but the "bottom" prices at the auctions throughout the variety of nihonto categories still appear the same as when I started except for when (at minimum) two people want a thing and therefore bidding does what bidding does.

 

I think it's a good time to buy, especially from Japan, but I've noticed the same "stock" just sitting around.    

 

Haven't been in this hobby that long but already saw quite a few little up and downs.  I started at a down, saw an up, waited for a down...rinse and repeat.  The fluctuations between an up and down though aren't anything crazy...in general 5% to 15% with a few "outstanding buys" scattered about.

[Rivkin]

The market is the most depressed compared to the past 10 years.

[David Flynn]

 everything is due for a re-set.

[Alex A]

Market looks stable to me but lots of variables.

 

For the UK, there has been issues for a while that have suddenly become more obvious. I was talking to a dealer here recently and he stated "i just cant get them polished". 

 

Then on the other hand you have places like the Lanes Armoury, checking their prices lately and i think they are at least 25% (or more) what they were several years ago. 

 

You can pick up Katana quite cheap, but they need a polish. Seen a good one in koshirae for £1500, signed and dated, Edo. Jo-Saku

 

There is the gent in Scotland and also someone else. I don't know who they are or whether they are responsible but someone is ruining blade after blade and wish they would just stop.

 

On that note, you look to Japan, sometimes the US. Going back 10 years ago when it used to be 1.5 to 2 $ to the £, that was the hay day for shopping with US dealers (for me)

 

Some good deals in Japan at the moment, just never the right one about when you have the cash, it seems.

 

As mentioned, shipping issues put a cloud above lately. Its kind of swayed me a bit from Katana and now seem to be more interested in Tanto and Wakizashi.

 

Often, if looking for a sword by a particular smith, it can take years to find something worth keeping , that's key. 

 

When looking for keepers you look at the work with more scrutiny. Gone are the days where just have to have a Katana, now if a wak comes up by the same smith which is far better quality, then that's what to go for. (for me).

 

You make these rules though but sometimes full impulse power takes over and you buy something ok, ok don't last.

 

That's how it goes.