Nihonto; a bad investment?

[paul V]

As a modest collector I always have to be very carefully when I buy a new sword. I try to buy it for a sum  that I might earn back if I have to sell it afterwards when I want to upgrade my small collection. But most of the time I suffer a loss. So to me Nihonto are  a bad investment - but that’s no problem as studying Nihonto is a fantastic hobby!

I just noticed that some people know better how to invest in Nihonto. Have a look at this tanto:

https://www.aoijapan.net/tanto-mumei-den-tametsugu/

https://www.aoijapan.com/tanto-mumei-tametsugu/

This impressive Tametsugu tanto almost quadrupled his price in seven years.

Conclusion: I am too dumb or just a stupid investor 😉

Paul v

[Brian]

As always, you need money to make money.
Those of us stuck near the bottom of the barrel seldom get the chance to play where the stakes are significant.

[Wolfmanreid]

Like anything else it depends on what part of the market you are dealing with and how discerning you are.  I have been fortunate in that I’ve made money on every nihonto I’ve owned. That being said I’m basically a bottom feeder in the world of nihonto. I collect non-nihonto arms and militaria, but I was repeatedly encountering nihonto in collections of estate items and in similar context. The owners knew nothing about them but were often amenable to a sale, so I began to educate myself both because I find traditional Japanese arts beautiful and intriguing, but also so I would at least be able to spot fakes and be able to have a rough sense of age, quality, etc. when I did encounter a nihonto. This has been fairly successful for me, and has allowed me to recover a number of decent pieces “from the woodwork” so to speak and get them into the hands of more serious collectors who can properly appreciate them.  I wouldn’t want to make my living at it but I’ve been lucky in that pieces I’ve bought for a few hundred or a thousand dollars have sometimes turned out to be worth a few thousand. I keep hoping I’ll find a true gem while scraping through the dirt, maybe one day. It has been a pleasant opportunity to talk to the extremely knowledgeable and great people on this site and partake in the community here.  Best advice I can give is to spend at least your first $1000 on reference materials and books. 

[Alex A]

I look at this way, 

 

You buy something you like, enjoy it, and pay for it over a few years.

 

You then have an asset 

 

Could think of worse things to do with money

[vajo]

Look the worlds finance system is going down. We had crisis all over the world. The moste people are affected by that pandemic. They need cash and income. Its not the time for selling nihonto. Its the time for saving your money. After this decade it will become better, i think. So i enjoy it further. 

[Rich S]

For me, my various collections (and there have been many) over the years have never been an investment. Just groups of things I liked, enjoyed and found interesting. I've bought and sold/traded many thousands of $$$ in stuff over the last 70 or so years. Some I guess I made a little money on, some I didn't -never mattered - just things I enjoyed playing with for a while. The collectibles market is EXTREMELY volatile with various stuff coming and going out of fashion. IMHO, don't ever count on a collection of anything being an "investment".

[raynor]

Buy stocks to make money, nihonto unless you find a lost treasure is a break even project at best financially but there are many pleasures in life besides money. Like a good hamon.

[Rivkin]

I think its less a genuine appreciation but a combination of two things:

1. Antiquities are not "too liquid" and thus below and above average deals are common.

2. In green paper days those issued to Sadamune and Masamune were uncommon, but not nearly as much as they are today. In their light Etchu Tametsugu was seen as a third rate attribution. Today when there is a push to give top tier names to blades that are actually somewhat earlier, Etchu Tametsugu is slowly accepted for what it is - something made between 1335-1345 and 1365-1375, Soshu style, with clear Norishige influence and solid quality.

[Bruce Pennington]

Whether the sword is a bottom-rung item or a top one,  my experience is that it's difficult to find a blade fore sale that is under-priced.  My abandoned effort and getting into buying/selling is because of this.  Of the 10 or so gunto I moved, only 2 or 3 were found under-priced.  The rest, after auction premiums and shipping, were all sold at cost or at a loss. 

[Gakusee]

I think the conclusion is simple: Soshu has always been held in high regard. But lately even more and anything Soshu ( and close students) flies off the shelves. I like using Norishige as a benchmark. Its price has on average also tripled. So, this tanto was a good investment to start with (a student) and perhaps undervalued. Something similar is happening to Sa students too - also popular. 

[Mark S.]

12 minutes ago, Bruce Pennington said:

…my experience is that it's difficult to find a blade fore sale that is under-priced.  

 

And usually if you find a blade under-priced, it usually requires polish, shirasaya, Shinsa, etc. that push the price to, or beyond, market value.  Even ‘under-priced’ items should be something you like.  Luckily I keep what I buy, so I buy what I like, and if some additional costs push it beyond its market value… well at least I am enjoying the $$$ I spent on myself for my enjoyment.

[Rivkin]

I would classify for myself personally "nihonto opportunities" to be of many different types

 

1. First class blade attributed to second class name. Happens with not-so-famous groups (Unsho) who can be attributed based on date/kantei rather than "quality". I like Aoe because one can buy better Aoe blade for 10% price compared to a worse blade with papers to Rai Kunitoshi. Unfortunately, this approach basically excludes certain groups like Awataguchi where deals like this DO NOT EXIST.

 

2. First class blade with unusual features which greatly complicate the attribution. Often its certain elements of sugata which are strange and then often its kasane. For example, there is a whole block of Soshu blades from 1340-1380 and especially 1360-1380 that no one really knows how to attribute precisely, so you find one with papers to Shimada and work on it. You'll never pull a first tier (i.e. late Kamakura) Soshu out of it, but a decent 1370 name is easy. Unfortunately, inverse is also true.

This is basically the type where one has to figure why there is a (potential) conflicting judgement and then learn whether he is comfortable living with it.

 

3. Somebody needing money right now. You don't want to be the first person making an offer, as usually the seller will price it somewhat high (I paid X and I want 1.25X), but after he is hit by couple of real low-balls from dealers you can make an honest low offer...

 

4. Undiscovered blades. No papers and no one knows what it is. Possible in the west, not nearly as often in Japan where I usually "work". There is however Japanese version of it - a blade was shown to a Sensei who said "don't bother polishing and (re)submitting it". Well, sometimes after a few years you learn that the sensei was actually right... These are the cases you don't talk about. But sometimes its more of the opposite and you get bragging rights to what you discovered.

[MHC]

For me, Nihonto collecting is a hobby, same goes for cars, guns and my landscaping endeavors. These are for personal pleasure not financial gain.

 

I have stocks, bonds, IRA's etc. for financial gain. The twain are not meant to cross paths.

 

Mark

 

 

[Curran]

Keep it simple:

The tanto that started this thread was initially sold at auction.

The tanto is now -consigned- at a much higher price. I could consign it for $1 Million. It doesn't mean anything until it sells anywhere near that price.

 

[Fuuten]

In the spirit of OP, who's in for a gamble? the following might be a good investment 👌 Tokubetsu hozon and also listed on consignment. Who's up for a guessing game on how it'll end?

 

https://www.aoijapan.com/tanto-mumei-tametsugu-2/

[Shugyosha]

So Aoi suggest that it’s Etchu Tametsugu but say it doesn’t look like the style of Norishige his sensei and say the attribution is questionable. 
 

The papers don’t say it’s Etchu Tametsugu or of that “den” and it isn’t priced as though it is. The current owner doesn’t think this will go Juyo to Etchu Tametsugu because it’s for sale. Its in Japan so It might already have failed Juyo shinsa but, if not, the best advice can be got readily so the current owner probably knows what it is, that it’s not going further and wants rid…

 

…so I’m not betting. 😬

 

[Gakusee]

John, the above might be true. Or might not. I tend to trust more the NBTHK on average than Tsuruta.
But what is clearly stated of implied by Aoi is that it is better than an average Tametsugu. 
I have no issue with dark jigane (as this is very Northern, ie Etchu) and when I read of tightly forged jihada, I am usually positive as this is a favourable trait (unless so tight and homogeneous as to lead to a Shinto/ShinShinto conclusion). So, this piece “surprises on the upside” as they say in financial circles, rather than disappoint “on the downside”. 

[Fuuten]

Honestly, I don't think anyone would bid on this one in particular with the intend to then sent it in for juyo. Otherwise the owner would've done it, or Aoi and as such it's on consignment. It is priced low for the name as condition appears good as does the work. I was only asking out of interest.

[Shugyosha]

Hi Micheal, 

I think I’ve been overly suspicious here. As regards the NBTHK, I wasn’t implying anything other than a tendency towards ambiguity in their lower papers on their part. 
 

Aoi’s blurb made me think that they were trying to suggest something beyond what was stated in the papers. Looking around, however, most papers seem to just state Tametsugu” or “den Tametsugu” so it looks I’ve jumped the gun.
 

Apologies to Axel - it looks like there might be some mileage in this one depending on where the wheel stops spinning. 

[Rivkin]

I think what was being suggested is that Etchu Tametsugu today is a default attribution for anything Soshu circa 1355-1385 which does not fit the other big busket blob - Shizu+ (Shizu, Kinju,Kanenobu).

Here both jigane is atypical for Etchu while hamon is not typical Etchu.

[sabiji]

The discussion reminds me a bit of a good acquaintance of mine. He wanted to sell a used car here in Berlin on a well-known used car market as quickly as possible and therefore cheap. But to his astonishment, there were hardly any interested parties.

They got into conversation with other sellers and asked where the catch was, because the car was so cheap. 
They assured that the car was perfectly fine. The answer was that at that price, many potential buyers would doubt it.
So they doubled the price on the sign and it didn't take long for the car to find a buyer.

 

What if the Tanto had no paper, only Tsuruta-san's opinion at the same price? His opinion would be doubted. It could possibly be a late Koto, early Shinto, or a Shinshinto.

 

But now it has TH, and what if the Tantol cost 9K? Would some be more comfortable then?

 

I admit I don't see enough of the Hada, that may be due to the polish. It would just be better to be able to look at the tanto in your own hands. But that's the way it is with the www.

Bottom line, it's a very nice dagger with TH on Tametsugu (nicer in any case than an attribution to Ko-Uda or Etchu Mitsuyuki - but that wouldn't change the beauty of the tanto). No more and no less.

@Rivkin, I don't think Kinju, with Kanenobu I would expect prominent Masanagare. Basically I have no problem with Tametsugu.... 

[Gakusee]

I agree with Thomas and Axel: this is a nice little blade with a fairly decent attribution.  It kind of reminds one even of Hasebe exuberance in some aspects of the blade. So, yes, whatever the attribution in the broader ballpark of good quality Soshu disciple from the Nanbokucho period, that will be fine. And people need to be able to live with that fuzziness of attribution within the broader framework. 

If I were into that type of thing, I would seriously consider it at this interesting and tempting junction of [price point, quality, attribution, level of certification]. So, I would not be surprised if some Soshu lovers pile into this. 
Disclaimer: not my blade or belonging to anyone I know and I have no commercial or other interest inherent in this blade or its sale/purchase.  

 

Lately, there has been a lot of interest in Soshu. That has logically been driving prices up. There are still some attractively priced opportunities around Soshu tier-II (eg various Den Sa school work, Den Hasebe etc) but even these are disappearing fast. 

[Rivkin]

Yes, it can definitely be shinto or shinshinto. Probably the only example with such combination of sugata and kasane, but it can be.

Can also be Hasebe. Jigane is wrong, kasane is wrong, nakago is wrong, kaeri is wrong. But it can be.

 

That's why you definitely need papers. Because otherwise it can be like anything. And with papers you read them and you definitely know what it is.

[Kanenaga]

This is an interesting piece. The NBTHK paper does say "Tametsugu," and it surely must have been tried at Juyo and failed, one reason perhaps being that the horimono appear to be ato-bori.

 

Les

[Kanenaga]

Does anyone know how this tanto finished up?

[DirkO]

Winning Bid: ¥959,000