Is this a good time to sell collections?

[Peter Bleed]

Is this a good time to sell collections?

I wonder if the NMB – in its collective wisdom – thinks that this is a good time to sell groups of Japanese swords. I know that predictions are tough - especially about the future -, but what to “we” think  is going to happen to sword prices? Is the future dark… or will there be a continuing, solid market for “collectible” Japanese blades?

Just asking….

[Rivkin]

My dai hard belief - once you don't actively collect, sell everything above what you really like to have. 

Zero evidence nihonto ever managed to beat stock market. At any level. All discussions about it being good investment long term are dealer speak.

[NewB]

For some it is a business so of course it is great to hear someone is willing to sell their items but at what price? PRICE is probably the most common question on the board ever since I am a part of it. Most remain silent about it, for well known reasons...

 

As you can see some Japanese dealers are unwilling to sell their blades for nothing anymore. Yet, you still see auctions for papered healthy examples barely touching their realistic value. The whole chu Saku vs saijo Saku, the whole gendaito vs shinsakuto and many many other 'conclusions' is creating this nightmare and divide. How long will it last, forever perhaps? Blades will get dispersed all over the World - the best will remain mostly in Japan or in rich peoples' vaults and thatd be that IMHO. I have I never understood it and most likely never will. I am personally affected by it as I have a pretty hefty selection that per aoi art should be worth lots of $ but as you can see nobody shares that opinion. So my angle is aoi art and fujishuro vs online sellers and prices. Soooo disconnected 

 

 

John

 

 

[NewB]

12 minutes ago, Rivkin said:

My dai hard belief - once you don't actively collect, sell everything above what you really like to have. 

Zero evidence nihonto ever managed to beat stock market. At any level. All discussions about it being good investment long term are dealer speak.

I agree except for the last sentence. There are still some examples that would never ever be affected by the stock market - period.

 

Even in a World collapse some TokuJu will be where they have always been value wise. 

 

My friend has a Masamune that most likely will hit the auction houses soon. How do you price that??

 

 

John

[Jwrussell]

John, I believe that he means if you are looking to invest money, you will see a much better return via the stock market than via Nihonto. In general absolutely true as it is with almost any collectible. As with firearms and watches, I am always happy if they just hold value. 

[NewB]

16 minutes ago, Jwrussell said:

John, I believe that he means if you are looking to invest money, you will see a much better return via the stock market than via Nihonto. In general absolutely true as it is with almost any collectible. As with firearms and watches, I am always happy if they just hold value. 

 

I am not debating, it is true. I would have been happy if the blades hold their true value versus being linked to some intangible and mostly manipulated entity such as the stock market. It's unfair to the whole subject of nihonto. 

 

Again, it is only an opinion 

 

 

John

[Bruce Pennington]

I don't buy or sell anymore, so don't follow the market.  On the occasions I've checked fleabay, prices took a big hit during the past COVID year, but of late have seemed to rebound even higher than they were before the virus hit.

[Vermithrax16]

Nihonto should never be seen as an investment. Besides the very high end, enjoy being a caretaker and love learning.

[Tom Darling]

John,  it is very simple, if your friends Masamune doesn't make the reserve price, it doesn't sell.  To realize the highest price he would have choose either Sotheby's or Christie's, and there in London, when it comes to handling Samurai swords.  I can't imagine the NBTHK  issued papers,  and without papers,  auction Houses will list as gimei.  

[NewB]

33 minutes ago, Tom Darling said:

John,  it is very simple, if your friends Masamune doesn't make the reserve price, it doesn't sell.  To realize the highest price he would have choose either Sotheby's or Christie's, and there in London, when it comes to handling Samurai swords.  I can't imagine the NBTHK  issued papers,  and without papers,  auction Houses will list as gimei.  

 

I get that. My point was , how do you price that?

 

And it's got an old Honami paper which technically means more than all NBTHK, NTHK and all alike.

 

I have seen it.. it is amazing it slipped through the cracks and it is still here, in the USA 

 

 

John

[Tom Darling]

What generation Honami paper is it?  To be technically, positively sure,  send it to the NBTHK, if they issue origami on Masamune,  it will definitely be Masamune. 

[NewB]

I could barely get my hands on it, how about convincing the owner of shipping it overseas. It will NEVER happen. 

 

I hope I win the lottery so I could buy the whole lot

 

but value, value, value. In the nihonto World that will always remain a mystery 

 

 

John

[Alex A]

Depends.

 

If what your selling is appealing

If what your selling is priced correctly

 

If the answer is yes to both it will sell, so long as any potential buyer in this "niche" market has the available funds at that time. 

 

Need a bit of luck with the timing.

 

As for prices, still holding.

 

 

 

[Rivkin]

1 hour ago, Darkcon said:

 

And it's got an old Honami paper which technically means more than all NBTHK, NTHK and all alike.

 

Seriously, owned plenty of those.

In a reasonably good case today it gets papers to something like Shizu Kaneuji... 12-17k. In a bad case - worth nothing.

 

H, TH Masamune - starts with 60k

Juyo Masamune - 400+. Sky's the limit but heavily depends on quality, who owned etc.

They are just not that awfully rare, compared to say quality original Scythian gold mounts, which you see once or twice a lifetime.

[NewB]

I agree.

 

Priced correctly is the issue at hand. I priced mine at aoi prices - zero results. So should I believe that one of the most respected members of this community doesn't know what he is talking about?

 

Hardly true, wouldn't you say?

 

For me is this - blades of specific school and high rating have 'please inquire' about price.. the others, no. Then blade gets sold, price disappears. Why? Unless it is a scammers World i.e "I won't tell you so you don't know so I take it off your hands for cents on the dollar". That is so F up...

 

.. and it is the reason why we are literally getting rid of our collections as it is lies, manipulations and then some.. just like the Golden teeth used car salesman. Lol

 

It makes me sick to my stomach...

 

 

John

[Alex A]

Unless its a bit of a gem and is something exceptional.........

 

If you buy from Aoi, expect to re-sell at around 75% of the purchase price

[NewB]

1 minute ago, Alex A said:

Unless its a bit of a gem and is something exceptional.........

 

If you buy from Aoi, expect to re-sell at around 75% of the purchase price

 

I use them as a rule of thumb. At least they have the dignity of displaying prices, explanations etc. 25% over sticker is a lot but gives me a better perspective. Thank you.

 

 

John

[IJASWORDS]

When I first started collecting (mainly gendai), I would buy at dealer prices. For the past few years, my thought strategy is to pay only what I could recover if I sold it. And if I buy a sword out of polish, I factor in the cost to polish. I have sold quite a few swords on NMB in the past year, and all get snapped up within a day. The reason, realistic prices, I always leave "a bit in it for the next owner". 

Only an observation, but many shinsakuto swords that have been listed on the NMB, never resell for the price the owner paid, and you see reduction after another, or withdraw from sale. 

Unless you buy really well, swords are not a good investment, you buy what gives you pleasure, enjoy it, and sell it for the current market price.  

[robinalexander]

Spot on Neil !

Rob

[NewB]

32 minutes ago, IJASWORDS said:

When I first started collecting (mainly gendai), I would buy at dealer prices. For the past few years, my thought strategy is to pay only what I could recover if I sold it. And if I buy a sword out of polish, I factor in the cost to polish. I have sold quite a few swords on NMB in the past year, and all get snapped up within a day. The reason, realistic prices, I always leave "a bit in it for the next owner". 

Only an observation, but many shinsakuto swords that have been listed on the NMB, never resell for the price the owner paid, and you see reduction after another, or withdraw from sale. 

Unless you buy really well, swords are not a good investment, you buy what gives you pleasure, enjoy it, and sell it for the current market price.  

 

I am with you 100%.

 

But where is the current market price you mentioned?

 

Where are the appraisal books??

 

 And So why is a million yen swordsmith even a thing then? If a near mint ubu can't even bring 4k?? Where are the rest 6k? Ok, papers $250. Basic koshirae 1k - still far off, no?

 

Or as I mentioned the whole shinsakuto vs gendaito nonsense comes in play. Rusted WW2 beat up to nothing goes for 1500 but near mint from the same group smith 20 years later isn't worth 4k??

 

I am either incapable of doing math or something is really off. I am okay with it either way. Zero logic so far for me that is

 

 

P.S. I have zero interest in striking a nerve with anyone just slightly displeased with how secretive this category is and how prices fluctuate in the THOUSANDS over semantics..

 

 

 

John

[IJASWORDS]

Darkon, John, all good questions. An appraisal book just wouldn't work however. For example, I have 2 EMURA'S both signed the same, both in good outfits. Put the 2 together and you could get USD3500 for one, and USD2500 for the other. They are chalk and cheese in regard to workmanship, every sword is different, and appeals to collectors in different ways. 

In regard to "gendai-to nonsense" as you call it, the WW2 stuff even if "beat up" appeals to both nihonto and militaria collectors. There is a certain "aura" a WW2 gendai-to has, in so much it was made was a weapon, like the Samurai swords of old, and not a piece of art for arts sake. 

The price is what people are prepared to pay at a particular time.  

[Jussi Ekholm]

Many years ago I had the idea of tracking down items of my interest and trying to get info on pricing and "beat" the market... now years later I understand it doesn't really work out that easily as there are lots of other factors that play in than just the asking price for that item. The rarer the item is the harder the pricing will be. For some pretty common ones you can easily find for example mumei pieces is X price range, then you might get an exceptional item that is priced double that and it deserves that pricing.

 

Also to be noted that market in Japan is quite different from international market. Of course in modern age it is getting more international but usually "basic - mid" items are much more expensive in Europe & US. However when it comes to very high end stuff then the rarity kicks in. It can be that an item goes from a dealer in the West to a dealer in Japan where a premium is added to it and it sells fast.

 

Here is the link to the thread I made 2,5 years ago. Unfortunately many of the item links are dead since that. Still it might be of some interest or it might not.

 

Personally I have kind of lost interest in price aspect of items and moved on to historical stuff. As I cannot afford to actively be eyeing out the market there is no need for me to really care about prices. Trying to understand differences between the items is to me more interesting than focusing on why for example one mumei Yamato Shizu is worth 6k, second 12k and third 20k. Of course they still often go hand in hand...

[NewB]

37 minutes ago, IJASWORDS said:

Darkon, John, all good questions. An appraisal book just wouldn't work however. For example, I have 2 EMURA'S both signed the same, both in good outfits. Put the 2 together and you could get USD3500 for one, and USD2500 for the other. They are chalk and cheese in regard to workmanship, every sword is different, and appeals to collectors in different ways. 

In regard to "gendai-to nonsense" as you call it, the WW2 stuff even if "beat up" appeals to both nihonto and militaria collectors. There is a certain "aura" a WW2 gendai-to has, in so much it was made was a weapon, like the Samurai swords of old, and not a piece of art for arts sake. 

The price is what people are prepared to pay at a particular time.  

 

I understand But in my case I bring my example for one reason- same Yasukuni smith, scarce inventory of blades produced, Same tamahagane from the Yasukuni Tatara. Where's the logic?

 

A rusted WW2 blade has more appeal and aura than a mint example of the same person?? That's why I disagree with the gendai vs shinsakuto nonsense. Now if folks feel like they want to drop thousands on a blade that is beat up and rusty then clearly that 'aura' must have penetrated their rational thinking. And I don't see any healthy shinsakuto as less of a weapon than any WW2 example. They are probably better as they weren't rushed to produce..

 

I have zero problems with collectors' choice - their money However that makes no sense just like the million yen ratings. 

 

 

I'll leave it at that as clearly my angle isn't aligning well with the rest and I have no interest in trying to convince anyone that this old school thinking has to end. Otherwise .. it'll be more chaos and further deterioration of pretty sacred artifacts.. to me at least.

 

 

Sometimes I wonder how many of us could find 2 pupils, take them under our wing, feed them, teach them to work endlessly for weeks before a blessed blade is made. Then off to the polisher, then off to the habaki maker, then the Saya maker.. all that so in 500 years a nice healthy well preserved blade gets 4k .. if that.. lol

 

how many would do it and be successful??

 

Lol 

 

 

Don't know whether to laugh or cry..

 

All the best and thank you all for sharing your thoughts. 

 

 

 

John

 

 

[NewB]

21 minutes ago, Jussi Ekholm said:

Many years ago I had the idea of tracking down items of my interest and trying to get info on pricing and "beat" the market... now years later I understand it doesn't really work out that easily as there are lots of other factors that play in than just the asking price for that item. The rarer the item is the harder the pricing will be. For some pretty common ones you can easily find for example mumei pieces is X price range, then you might get an exceptional item that is priced double that and it deserves that pricing.

 

Also to be noted that market in Japan is quite different from international market. Of course in modern age it is getting more international but usually "basic - mid" items are much more expensive in Europe & US. However when it comes to very high end stuff then the rarity kicks in. It can be that an item goes from a dealer in the West to a dealer in Japan where a premium is added to it and it sells fast.

 

Here is the link to the thread I made 2,5 years ago. Unfortunately many of the item links are dead since that. Still it might be of some interest or it might not.

 

Personally I have kind of lost interest in price aspect of items and moved on to historical stuff. As I cannot afford to actively be eyeing out the market there is no need for me to really care about prices. Trying to understand differences between the items is to me more interesting than focusing on why for example one mumei Yamato Shizu is worth 6k, second 12k and third 20k. Of course they still often go hand in hand...

Thank you Sir

 

 

John

[Sutraken]

I would like to mention an exception for the rule that gendaito are more appreciated then shinsakuto, even made by the same smith: Tsukamoto Okimasa. His few post WW2 blades are regard with highest admiration and are considered as his best output in terms of quality. On the other hand, the majority of his swords are gendaito, which is one reason why he is mentioned mostly as WW2 smith in discussions here. Prices begin for his shinsakuto in prestine condition with blade lengths above 70cm and horimono around 10k. This is not extraordinary more than the sums you have to pay for his best gendaito in comparable condition of preservation, but compared with other gendai smiths of this era I find it remarkable. That’s why I write this comment on prices for nihonto. 

 

Stefan 

[Legatus]

Just chiming in here, as a long time nihonto person but new member.

Regarding the "Million yen" swordsmith, that valuation is due to a mistranslation commonly used  both by many dealers and collectors. 

The original Japanese is 1 Man (or mon), carelessly abreviated to 1M  and erroneously taken to mean 1 Million.  In fact the Man /Mon unit means 10.000. (This is also the same for the Chinese Unit) 

So your Million Yen swordsmith actually means 10,000 Yen - which makes a lot more sense, and was still a very significant amount of money , (say 10,000 silver yen pieces) back then whenever written. 

 

Secondly look at some of the better dealers websites. You pay (and they get) a significant premium price above what you can sell for , because of: 

1) Their reputation (i,.e  you know they won't cheat you and will accept returns if there is a problem

2) The nice presentation- which includes a printable article with researched information about the smith, historical context , discussion about the blade etc

3) They have usually taken the time and trouble (which can be substantial)  to paper the blade, which takes it to another level of authenticity and desirability

4) Usually included with the deal are professional photographs of the blade, koshirae etc which you can use to display or advertise your blade to sell in the future. 

5) The blade when sold will be archived; you can always refer back to it on the website when studying it, showing friends or a future customer !

6) Guarantees about shipping, etc - I don't have to deal with the details, insurance etc. 

7) Wider and established and richer customer base. You as a private individual will simply not have that exposure.

 

Speaking for myself, I would gladly pay 25-50% above the price of the same blade that I would pay a private unknown individual, even if I was reasonably confident of your trustworthiness, 

authenticity etc. IF the above factors came into play.  But of course, for most blades and equipment, the "For Sale & Trade"  forum on NMBs  does provide an invaluable avenue to sell and buy for members at a reasonable and fair price, without having to pay the $ premiums mentioned above. And I do realize that most members here are knowledgeable and experienced, and so will be more equipped to strike out on their own and less inclined to pay those premiums. 

 

So, if you think your sword is undervalued, if you can provide the above factors,  then that will be one way to increase the market value and what you can get for it. 

If you can't or won't,  the next best step may be to consign to a better dealer and agree on the price you are willing to sell at. You may be suprised - he may be able to get the price you could not. 

Big Auctions sites have pros and cons. Yes, they have a much bigger audience and occasionally can sell at inflated prices, but they simply do not or have have the time to take care of it and fully research and  do a write up of your few blades and they charge very expensive commissions and fees that can add up t0 40% (!) of the actual sale price.

 

As to price comparisons between say "shinsakuto vs gendaito"  I completely agree,  but it does depend on current interests and fads. As an amateur historian myself,  there is definately a panache or thrill factor about gendaito that appeals to that group of collector , especially among the younger ones.  Why else would mass produced WW1 and WW2 helmets with almost zero artistic value go for  $thousands? Also , one thing I have noticed, is that there is an increasing trove of veriable information about gendaito, along with the possibility of new discoveries that makes that area fascinating.            In comparison the amount of complicated knowledge that Nihonto requires to be reasonably competent does seem a bit daunting. 

 

I understand that John's price comparison is for items somewhat comparable (such as same Yasukuni smith, different years) . Well, it's even crazier for things not directly comparable. 

I am of the age where I think it silly for someone to pay $1000 for a pair of collectable sneakers ; however that person would think me nuts for paying the same amount for a fine & rare whisky.  

My wife would think both us were crazy!  But its all good. The market is what it is. 

Those new gendaito collectors may move on to nihonto in the future, and provide new blood and a customer base to buy our old stuff! 

 

Cheers, 

Leon 

 

 

 

[Gakusee]

4 hours ago, Rivkin said:

 

Seriously, owned plenty of those.

In a reasonably good case today it gets papers to something like Shizu Kaneuji... 12-17k. In a bad case - worth nothing.

 

H, TH Masamune - starts with 60k

Juyo Masamune - 400+. Sky's the limit but heavily depends on quality, who owned etc.

They are just not that awfully rare, compared to say quality original Scythian gold mounts, which you see once or twice a lifetime.

 

Kiril,

 

I would like to raise a few comments, if I may, on your thought/debate-provoking (thank you for that, as NMB has become a bit boring for me!) contributions:

 

• Let us not joke here with the beginners in the hobby please. A Masamune will not sell for $60k (where do I get a couple please?), even if it is 'merely Hozon'.  We both know what that Hozon means.....

 

• On the point of old Honami papers - agree. And this is hopefully beneficial to John V 'Darkcon'.  It all depends on who the Honami judge was - if it were Kochu or Kojo, that is fine (they are the most reliable), or even Koyu to some extent, but those Honami after them often issued origami under duress or the temptation of reward, and there are a lot of discredited Honami papers which indeed today will be rejected. 

 

Darcy himself thoroughly documented a case like that: a published 'Masamune', with a tonne of Honami papers and family heirloom letters, fancy koshirae etc etc , which today is believed to be a good Edo 'reproduction': https://yuhindo.com/masamune/

 

• As to Scythian gold mounts, well, CF https://www.antiquities.co.uk/shop/appliques-protomes/bronze-age-scythian-gold-zoomorphic-mount/ and judge for yourselves. 

[Gakusee]

10 hours ago, Peter Bleed said:

Is this a good time to sell collections?

 

I wonder if the NMB – in its collective wisdom – thinks that this is a good time to sell groups of Japanese swords. I know that predictions are tough - especially about the future -, but what to “we” think  is going to happen to sword prices? Is the future dark… or will there be a continuing, solid market for “collectible” Japanese blades?

 

Just asking….

 

 

Peter

We all started digressing into 'is gendaito better than shinsakuto?', 'oh, why, my god, why is my mass produced WW2 blade priced where it is?' and our pet loves and interests,  and ignored your question. I shall provide my humble views:

 

1) at the moment, from a macroeconomic perspective, globally there is a heck of a lot of loose monetary policy being practised by central banks and reserves; this means, in layman's terms, than they require banks to hold lower currency reserves (thus relieving retail banks of the requirement to have reserves centrally and encouraging them to lend the excess more) and the government institutions deploy central funds to purchase debt obligations thus increasing money supply in the economy. When there is a lot of something, its price comes down. In our case, the value of money goes down through the inflation mechanism - inflation rates are high, money buys less, etc. That is why you are seeing so many people fleeing to alternative assets to fiat (i.e. normal ) money - be it gold, bitcoin/ethereum, non-fiat-token digital assets, art. Normal money costs less (you can view the interest rate in the bank as its value increment and inflation as its decrement = the net change is negative as inflation is much higher that interest rates and real GDP growth)

 

2) so, investing in alternative assets when money is abundant makes diversification sense - be it real estate (you know it, its price is up too!), art collections, value depository assets (gold, diamonds, platinum, silver). Now, you need to be careful with the so called commodities and precious metals as their value is influenced by industrial usage as well as financial operations (the so called forward and futures prices,  derivatives, etc)

 

3) zooming into art more precisely, as an alternative asset class in addition to a source of personal gratification and aesthetic enjoyment, it is booming (for the reasons above plus the additional wealth created in emerging real economies such as China or the Middle East or Russia or digital economies - think of the Bitcoin and Ethereum billionaires and multimillionaires who lucked it out). It could be digital art (https://www.forbes.com/sites/abrambrown/2021/03/11/beeple-art-sells-for-693-million-becoming-most-expensive-nft-ever/) or antique art (https://www.theartnewspaper.com/news/disarming-new-findings-on-leonardos-salvator-mundi).

 

4) are antique weapons merely a historic artefact or art? That is a tricky question. Are Japanese swords works of art?  It merits its own treatise. A-ha! It exists! Please refer to my friend, Paul's, interesting article on the subject https://to-ken.uk/onewebmedia/why article.pdf

 

5) so, having established that there is demand for alternative assets and art in particular, then we need to analyse whether our Japanese swords are really art, and, if so, high or fine art. Are they mass/machine produced swords, of which there are many tens of thousands,  all look similar, etc or are they unique, beautiful, old (so there is the historic/antique element). What is the state of preservation? Is there historic provenance (daimyo ownership)? Is there evidence they were cherished, appreciated, etc?

 

I suppose one could read another friend of mine's blog posts here : https://blog.yuhindo.com/what-i-learned-from-you/#more-124. and https://blog.yuhindo.com/fungible/

They sort of conclude that people like differentiated, quality items, which store/reserve their value. There is more there too (about a specialist collection, about high vs low/wide) etc and Guido has also written on that topic separately.

 

So, Peter, I would conclude (my wife is calling me for lunch!)  by saying:

- there is plenty of disposable wealth and money around 

- it is looking for art and Japanese swords too (I know several guys in their 30s with remarkable Juyo and TJ collections at the topmost level)

- however, with the plethora of available (mostly digital) information, that wealth is 'better informed' and 'smarter'. It is no longer the golden era of the Japanese or Militaria arms fair or show in the airport hotel of the 1970s-1990s where people were buying unprepared and myths were being perpetuated about Juyo swords, about what certain words in sayagaki meant, etc 

- to attract those buyers, or even just knowledgeable buyers, if you are selling a top item, there should not be an issue.

- if you are selling an average item, then you need to be able to swallow the loss of the dealer premium you paid when you bought your sword. That premium could range from 0 to 100%. I know US dealers who tend to put 30-40% premiums, European dealers who put 50-80% premiums, Japanese, who put around 25-30%, etc. Of course I could go much further into the topic (was an item bought at the exclusive/secretive Japanese dealer auction or not, was it bought directly from a Japanese collector, and how was it subsequently priced by the Occidental dealer?) but it is unwise to discuss trade secrets . Leon T above explains well why there is a dealer premium. 

- if, however, you bought from a dealer, and then upgraded a certificate, then you can make money. Unfortunately the ladder theory (https://blog.yuhindo.com/ladder-theory/) works in sword pricing.  I have been fortunate to upgrade swords bought from dealers and made money, but do not count on it. It is not common. 

- one final thought: do not sell as a collection if you can avoid it. Anecdotally I have observed through the dispersal of several collections,  that it is better to 'trickle' the swords into the market, finding the right buyer for the right sword rather than flooding the market with self-competing swords

 

 

[NewB]

Just so everyone understands:

 

I had no intention of stealing or steering the thread in any way

 

I believe my questions are reasonable 

 

I read all your viewpoints with great attention to detail and I am thankful for them

 

 

 

John

[waljamada]

Coming into the market when I did (past two years), prices to me seemed affordable and reasonable considering the amount of blades in existence.  There are of course as in any hobby or "collectibles" markets tiers of blades/makers/eras/quality etc...that command throughout the price spectrum fairly and accurately.  I am in a few collectors markets (including one in a boom right now) some of which I've I've navigating for a decade and there are certainly trends shared amongst all collectible markets.

 

I have seen the prices of blades "rebound" like 10 to 15% already in my short time collecting and still believe the current market to be fairly priced.  I myself have purchased at least 4 blades knowing that the seller had purchased them for much higher prices years before and to be honest that made me sad.  But I truly believe the older market was inflated for lower tier blades (bottom half of the "quality" spectrum, and this is important to note, the large majority of available existing blades fall in the lower half). 

 

I also see many sellers, especially experienced but non-professional ones, over pricing their stock of "bulk" swords.  Bulk meaning swords on the lower half tier blades of the market.  For example, in general, a sword out of polish, mumei, shinto, stains but still decent shape in basic or even type 98 gunto mounts is not worth 2.5/3k.  But I know people holding on to blades like that waiting for someone to pay that price...along with in some cases literally hundreds of blades all overvalued by at least 20% if not more. 

 

So in my opinion the market for blades accurately priced over say 8k have enough established facts that the prices are secured and the buyers are willing to pay the prices based upon the attributes and history of a piece because everything in this hobby is so well documented these days (makers,skill levels,eras,histories etc...).  To me its a pretty safe market in the top half.  However, whatever way I do the math I can't see a way to make money as a current buyer in the market on the top half buying through traditional means such as dealers etc...you'd have to get a deal from a collector to collector transaction.  The dealers are already charging the very top prices of the current (and I suspect future) market. 

 

On the lower half of the market a seller needs to be realistic on their asking prices to sell and on the top half of the market the blade needs provenance (good maker, papers etc..) to support/command/protect price/value.  If those two things are in balance the blades will sell as there are absolutely active buyers in the market currently and in my opinion willing to pay fair values.   Even when in balance in this current market though I don't see it being a money making opportunity for the majority buyers.  With all that said I could still see  the potential for a 5 to 10% increase on investment if navigated well and good timing for the casual collectors.  Either way, buyers are currently buying.

 

Everything written above is my subjective experience trying to peer into the objective market.  Probably missing the mark on a lot of things.  It also assumes that the collector pool won't have any dramatic increases in numbers over time.