NBTHK Yearly Number of Shinsa Passes

[Jussi Ekholm]

As I was browsing through my Tōken Bijutsu magazines, I noticed some interesting information. I have pretty much just skipped the yearly report as I have seen it mainly as financial stuff etc. and with my limited Japanese skill is not possible to really read it, I know some info that it contains etc. but now I decided to take a closer look on some sections and I was surprised to see how much info is presented in there. I must say I have probably had bit more conservative number about yearly items, I think I have been in somewhat correct ballpark as I have done research based on paper numbers and what numbers pop up to dealer sites in Japan after shinsa.

 

As this is public information posted on Tōken Bijutsu magazine I do think it is ok to post data I translittered to English in here. NBTHK membership is unfortunately quite rare especially outside Japan. I know many people in the west are bit suspicious about NBTHK and there has been some negativity and slander behind the scenes and out in open too. I know people often still bring up some things that happened way in the past, in order to discredit the current organization. I do believe in open discussion and exchange of information, and I do think NBTHK is doing wonderful things for our tiny hobby (as are many other smaller organizations too).

 

Here are the numbers that NBTHK provided in their yearly report, for some reason In Jūyō results number of swords passes is 100% match but other items do not always match the actual number of items passed on results list? But here are the last 5 years of results for you to study and think about.

 

2019

 

Hozon Tōken – 7,106 submitted – 4,749 passed

Hozon Tōsō – 333 submitted – 186 passed

Hozon Tōsōgu – 3,764 submitted – 2,401 passed

 

Tokubetsu Hozon Tōken – 3,317 submitted – 2,259 passed

Tokubetsu Hozon Tōsō – 154 submitted – 102 passed

Tokubetsu Hozon Tōsōgu – 1,062 submitted – 841 passed

 

Jūyō 65 Tōken – 997 submitted – 101 passed

Jūyō 65 Tōsō – 45 submitted – 8 passed

Jūyō 65 Tōsōgu – 287 submitted – 29 passed

 

2018

 

Hozon Tōken – 7,433 submitted – 4,978 passed

Hozon Tōsō – 345 submitted – 177 passed

Hozon Tōsōgu – 3,408 submitted – 2,131 passed

 

Tokubetsu Hozon Tōken – 3,372 submitted – 2,342 passed

Tokubetsu Hozon Tōsō – 203 submitted – 103 passed

Tokubetsu Hozon Tōsōgu – 854 submitted – 604 passed

 

Jūyō 64 Tōken – 916 submitted – 135 passed

Jūyō 64 Tōsō – 63 submitted – 7 passed

Jūyō 64 Tōsōgu 296 submitted – 23 passed

 

Tokubetsu Jūyō 25 Tōken – 342 submitted – 70 passed

Tokubetsu Jūyō 25 Tōsō – 10 submitted – 2 passed

Tokubetsu Jūyō 25 Tōsōgu – 41 submitted – 5 passed

 

2017

 

Hozon Tōken – 4,257 submitted – 2,880 passed

Hozon Tōsō – 199 submitted – 126 passed

Hozon Tōsōgu – 2,600 submitted – 1,646 passed

 

Tokubetsu Hozon Tōken – 1,891 submitted – 1,287 passed

Tokubetsu Hozon Tōsō – 106 submitted – 66 passed

Tokubetsu Hozon Tōsōgu – 629 submitted – 421 passed

 

Jūyō 63 Tōken – 753 submitted – 140 passed

Jūyō 63 Tōsō – 35 submitted – 6 passed

Jūyō 63 Tōsōgu – 279 submitted – 29 passed

 

2016

 

Hozon Tōken – 7,455 submitted – 4,913 passed

Hozon Tōsō – 351 submitted – 196 passed

Hozon Tōsōgu – 4,123 submitted – 2,753 passed

 

Tokubetsu Hozon Tōken – 2,771 submitted – 1,893 passed

Tokubetsu Hozon Tōsō – 135 submitted – 89 passed

Tokubetsu Hozon Tōsōgu – 1,022 submitted – 763 passed

 

Jūyō 62 Tōken – 875 submitted – 149 passed

Jūyō 62 Tōsō – 54 submitted – 9 passed

Jūyō 62 Tōsōgu – 274 submitted – 29 passed

 

Tokubetsu Jūyō 24 Tōken – 326 submitted – 71 passed

Tokubetsu Jūyō 24 Tōsō – 10 submitted – 2 passed

Tokubetsu Jūyō 24 Tōsōgu – 27 submitted – 5 passed

 

2015

 

Hozon Tōken – 6,984 submitted – 4,594 passed

Hozon Tōsō – 367 submitted – 218 passed

Hozon Tōsōgu – 3,948 submitted – 2,613 passed

 

Tokubetsu Hozon Tōken – 2,450 submitted – 1,648 passed

Tokubetsu Hozon Tōsō – 152 submitted – 107 passed

Tokubetsu Hozon Tōsōgu – 940 submitted – 754 passed

 

Jūyō 61 Tōken – 826 submitted – 165 passed

Jūyō 61 Tōsō – 49 submitted – 11 passed

Jūyō 61 Tōsōgu – 277 submitted – 37 passed

[Gakusee]

Good digging, Jussi, thanks

also in the annual report you can see the Hozon fees dwarf any other fees received. A major revenue generator. 

[b.hennick]

Thanks, Jussi - much appreciated.

[Kawa]

That is some awesome research as always, thanks Jussi! 

[Katsujinken]

It’s neither here nor there (I imagine there is some selection bias), but it’s interesting to me that a higher percentage of blade submissions for Tokuju successfully convert compared to Juyo. 

[b.hennick]

15% for Juyo 21% for Tokubetsu Juyo Small sample size 4 for Juyo and 2 for Tokuju

[Jussi Ekholm]

I think lots of things go into Tokujū submission, those that have done it can explain things much better than I can. Darcy has written an excellent blog post on the subject. I do think in general people who will have a go at Tokujū shinsa are often people with great knowledge, and they have done the background work and are prepared for the submission. And of course the item sent in is in most cases very good.

 

Jūyō shinsa (while quite uncommon for average collectors) is still much more relaxed compared to absolute top at Tokujū. I believe It is much lower bar to try a good quality Tokuho item for a chance to Jūyō, where as in order to to pass as Tokujū the item would need to be among the top quality of Jūyō items.

 

Hozon & Tokubetsu Hozon are just bit "generic" as you can see by the numbers of them passing every year. Of course things are not black & white as there are still great items at just that papering level. However on the other hand there are plenty of weak Tokubetsu Hozon items too. I think here in the West we are sometimes too concerned about the level of papers, and often in discussions we bring up the NBTHK papering levels (yes I am often quilty of that too), instead of focusing on explaining the item in other ways. I know it would be convenient to but things in boxes but I think some of the boxes are too big. For example as there is about 1,500 - 2,000 swords passing Tokubetsu Hozon every year, there is lot of different swords in that yearly bunch, and some amazing items will be passing every year, along with some that will barely make it, while the majority will be everything in between those extremes.

 

However all that I am saying must be taken with grain of salt, as what I am writing is purely theoretical. I have not yet submitted a sword into a shinsa by any organization.