$15k and NTHK

[Prewar70]

I understand that NTHK and NBTHK can arrive at different conclusions.  Would you spend $15k on a signed blade with NTHK papers only or would you want to get NBTHK's results too?

[nickm]

While I am relatively new to this type of collecting I can say from having asked a similar question that NBTHK is definitely the go to for larger purchases. I have been told especially if there is ever intention of resale so the question would then be why hasn't the seller already submitted it. If $15000 should be I imagine a th or juyo contender with NBTHK which would of course increase value.

[nickm]

I have been advised by smarter people than me in similar situations that likely it has been submitted and they did not like the attribution so stuck with the old papers..

[Prewar70]

Just to clarify, not old "green" papers, but current NTHK-NPO papers.  Just so we're on the same page.  Maybe the question is out of line, sensitive at least, but curious none the less.

[nickm]

Not at all, this board is phenomenal and has an amazing wealth of knowledgeable people that love answering questions. Again my thought would be not having NBTHK papers that they like the NTHK assesment more... I'm sure you will soon get insight from more experienced people and I look forward to reading the responses though not as much as you do I'm sure

[YOJIMBO]

Do you want buy paper or sword ?

[Prewar70]

That question doesn't make any sense to me.  No need to explain, I just don't agree with it as it makes sense to have both of course.

[nickm]

What he was getting at and I have been told the same by a few people is to trust judgment and things of that sort. Essentially if you like the sword by the sword but I think that rationale works a lot better with a much smaller price tag

[16k]

I’ve heard NTHK only deliver a paper when they’re absolutely sure of an attribution (dunno if it’s true) so while NBTHK is the most popular, maybe (preparing for the **** storm that’s going to follow ) the NTHK is more reliable?

[TheGermanBastard]

My answer is maybe. You can not receive a definate answer to this question. It depends on the sword. I would first look at the sword. Simons answer is quite accurate therefore.

 

The question is wheter the sword is worth 15k. Present NBTHK papers are prefered by most collectors / dealers but I would not say that a NTHK-NPO paper is no good. It is an oppinion by someone supposed to have expertice.

[raynor]

I'm a complete novice still and have no doubt the NBTHK have absolute top level Shinsa experts, the NTHK director/head judge takes care of among other things the emperors collection so either organizations opinion is as good as the others I would say. They're not throwing darts in the dark at either organization.

 

Maybe here in the west NBTHK is more popular at the moment, but I would have no worries if NTHK/NTHK-NPO judged the sword so and so whether I should also add NBTHK opinion.

 

Buy the sword not the paper and if you cant tell why I'd buy a book or two first, that's the route I'm going and quite enjoying it.

 

That said, with NTHK papers at 15k it's most likely going to be a decent sword.

[b.hennick]

Since this hypothetical blade is signed the organization is both confirming the signature and the quality of blade. Either is fine for that. There are references that they use to match the signature.

I think that if the blade is mumei, one might have a different view.

I'm of the school of buy the blade not the paper.

[vajo]

I think the sword must be worth 15K not the paper. The paper makes a statement of what you should see.

[TheGermanBastard]

Chris and Barry are absoluetly right.

 

Personally I would always put the hightes value twoards a Tanobe Sayagaki, then NBTHK, NTKHK NPO, Fujishiro and last NTHK. hat is my personal oppinion and I do believe that there are many darts flying in the dark and not hitting anything  solid on Mumei blades ....

[Hoshi]

I beg to differ. 

 

10K-20K is the danger zone. It's not entry level and it's not treasure level either. This is where big costly mistakes happen. What's the attribution you're looking at? A lot of the danger, as in downward moves, can be explored if we know the attribution. It's also possible to take a few pot shots at the lateral moves. In either case, knowing the attribution is key to discard the 'they didn't like the new result they got' argument that was brought up here. 

 

Be careful of downward moves. 

 

I do not like the motto of buy the sword not the paper. It reminds me a lot of 'be yourself' and 'follow your heart' which feel right but end up being empty assertions, and in some cases dangerous. It's irresponsible financially as we all try to minimize rental costs on our swords. For some of us, paying an unfortunate rent on a 10-20K sword of 50%+ devaluation over five years will hurt. The name indicated on the paper determines a lot of the attributes of the sword. Sure, there is within-smith variation, and the healthiness of the blade to appraise. But attribution tells you the range of what to expect. 

 

Your tastes will change and you will to regret buying what you like. My policy is to buy the sword with the highest emotional dividend + learning dividend ratio'ed over rent costs. So this leads us back to defer to the judgement of experienced scholar as to what we ought to value, which brings us back to Fujishiro and market willingness to pay, which brings us back to the truism etc... 

[Jussi Ekholm]

I guess this would be a rhetorical question but how many swords with asking price well above 1M yen do you see for sale with NTHK papers in Japan?

[Katsujinken]

I guess this would be a rhetorical question but how many swords with asking price well above 1M yen do you see for sale with NTHK papers in Japan?

Bingo!

[TheGermanBastard]

I guess this would be a rhetorical question but how many swords with asking price well above 1M yen do you see for sale with NTHK papers in Japan?

 

I can not not conclude from the topic starters information that we are talking about a sword that has been to a Japanese Shinsa.

 

Most NTHK papered blades that I see hitting the market had been to a US NTHK Shinsa.

 

But again this is all to vague ... the topic starter has provided too little information to make any assumptions ...

 

Mumei or signed? US or Japanese Shinsa? .... What blade exactly.

[paulb]

There has been much said before and again here about "buying the sword and not the paper" It is something I largely agree with. I always get nervous when someone tells me they want to buy "A Juyo" doesn't matter what as long as it has that magic piece of paper.

However If I am spending a large amount of money (I wish) I would certainly draw comfort from the fact it had papers from a well respected appraisal authority.  I also believe it would be much easier for me to sell it on in the future if it was supported by a high level paper.

There has been and continues to be much debate as to which body offers the best attribution and adds the greater value. Much of this discussion is, regardless of whether we admit it to ourselves or not, based on what results we got and whether we were pleased or disappointed.

JP was partially right, at one point the original NTHK followed the traditional wording on their papers which "absolutely guaranteed" that  a piece was genuine. I am not sure if this is still the case but certainly it is a guarantee that is impossible to make in reality.

At the moment greatest commercial security appears to come with NBTHK attributions. They are the only ones I have seen with Japanese dealers and for a number of auction houses the only ones they list in a description.

I tend to agree with Luis, at the moment I place the greatest faith in sayagaki written by Tanobe Sensei. There are few that would dispute that he is probably the greates expert in this field at present.

[TheGermanBastard]

Hands down: Tanobe is the greatest sword scholar alive. So the best OPPINION you can get is his. And still any oppinion has to be questioned for the mere sake of improvement and learning. Thesis and Antithesis will conclude a better Synthesis hopefully.

 

Nihonto is Art and hence there will always remain uncertainities. If this was a simple scientific binary right / wrong things we would have a fancy smart phone app doing near bullet proof Kantei and not DISCUSS things like we do here. But dping so, discussing things and agreeing to not agree is good.

 

With a scientific look anybody who gives you a 100% gurantee in something, is a blant bullshiter. 99.9% is the best you can get.

 

So while somewhat frusttrating it is still better to get a resul saying: Sorry buddy, we don't know, more study is required ... as it is honest ... rather than some said ultimate result.

 

The situation of the NTHK is unfortunate with two somewhat rivalling organisations. Then again it might be a benefit. Competitions may bring out the best in something... might.

 

I believe that the NBTHK has better resources ... more manpower, more funds, more study pieces. Hence it is the golden standard.

 

Just looking at the system I personally like the NTHK one better. But this is a whole different topic / discussion.

 

To sum up my answer on the original posters questions: I do not know.

 

I do not know is the most honest down to earth answer you probably can get to your question based on the provided details.

[Prewar70]

Chris and Jussi your statements make the most sense to me.  Buy the sword not the paper as I said before doesn't resonate with me.  Of course I'm going to buy a sword that I like but I'd also like to know what I'm getting and try my best to not overpay.  I don't want a surprise.  I was looking at a particular sword for sale here in the US that was very appealing to me, and had NTHK papers.  I thought if I buy that sword I'd like to send it to Japan for NBTHK Shinsa which got me to thinking, crap, what if it failed?  Or what if it came back with a different attribution?  Did I lose value in my purchase if there was a different result and what if I sold it later, only I would know the differing Shinsa result.  Lot's of what ifs and I am very much a novice so I wanted to get the forums thoughts.  NTHK comes to US, so that makes it much easier and less costly and time consuming then sending swords to Japan, that I understand.  Maybe at some lower price my conscious would be ok with the US Shinsa papers.  But if I was parting with my hard earned 15k I would want NBTHK to agree with what I'm buying.  Maybe the seller would agree to a guarantee, I don't know.  I didn't mean to turn this into which is better, I hope that makes sense.

[raynor]

If you plan to resell it among a western audience, get NBTHK papers? If you genuinely just want a high level opinion or confirmation, I do not think it matters what mentioned organization you have examine your blade, US Shinsa is feasible and acessible for American collectors.

 

I believe Paul is correct.. we might be influenced to pick preferences depending on past "luck". Human nature.

 

The three Japenese organizations mentioned all have the very top experts, some of whom are blade polishers etc. themselves, not just bookworms.

[nickm]

Hands down: Tanobe is the greatest sword scholar alive. So the best OPPINION you can get is his. And still any oppinion has to be questioned for the mere sake of improvement and learning. Thesis and Antithesis will conclude a better Synthesis hopefully.

 

Nihonto is Art and hence there will always remain uncertainities. If this was a simple scientific binary right / wrong things we would have a fancy smart phone app doing near bullet proof Kantei and not DISCUSS things like we do here. But dping so, discussing things and agreeing to not agree is good.

 

With a scientific look anybody who gives you a 100% gurantee in something, is a blant bullshiter. 99.9% is the best you can get.

 

So while somewhat frusttrating it is still better to get a resul saying: Sorry buddy, we don't know, more study is required ... as it is honest ... rather than some said ultimate result.

 

The situation of the NTHK is unfortunate with two somewhat rivalling organisations. Then again it might be a benefit. Competitions may bring out the best in something... might.

 

I believe that the NBTHK has better resources ... more manpower, more funds, more study pieces. Hence it is the golden standard.

 

Just looking at the system I personally like the NTHK one better. But this is a whole different topic / discussion.

 

To sum up my answer on the original posters questions: I do not know.

 

I do not know is the most honest down to earth answer you probably can get to your question based on the provided details.

impressive response. Logical intelligent and enciteful. I'm impressed

[Ken-Hawaii]

 

 

That question doesn't make any sense to me.  No need to explain, I just don't agree with it as it makes sense to have both of course.

This rings a host of alarm bells! If you don't have enough experience to look at a potential purchase, & have a really good idea that it's sho-shin, why in the world would you want to shell out $15K, papers or not?

 

That's the real meaning of buying the blade! I've spent over $10K a couple of times, but not until I was certain, in my own mind, that I was getting exactly what I wanted. As has been said many times, origami are only opinions about a blade! Yes, of course I like it when the papers agree with what my experience tells me, but, on at least three occasions, I bought a blade that I was sure was different than the accompanying papers...& I was right, all three times. When they came back from NBTHK, all three were exactly what I had suspected. Oh, & two of those three were from earlier NBTHK shinsa, too.

[Prewar70]

You have purchased three swords that already had NBTHK papers and you disagreed with those, resubmitted, and received new attributions that matched your conclusions? All from NBTHK? Am I understanding you correctly?

[Ken-Hawaii]

Yes, that's right.

[Shugyosha]

Since this hypothetical blade is signed the organization is both confirming the signature and the quality of blade. Either is fine for that. There are references that they use to match the signature.

I think that if the blade is mumei, one might have a different view.

I'm of the school of buy the blade not the paper.

 

"Buy the sword, not the paper" is a good rule of thumb but, at its essence it suggests that the buyer should rely on their own judgement over and above that of the issuing organisation and perhaps also that they are of dubious intellect or should hold their manhood cheap if they do otherwise. I am occasionally guilty of false modesty, but I'm fairly confident that my own evaluation of a piece might, in most circumstances, lead to a different conclusion to that of an NBTHK or NTHK shinsa panel.

 

I agree with Barry in that I think that there is no substitute for taking one's time and doing one's homework but that so that a piece can be assessed in the context of any accompanying paperwork and any information provided by the seller that might affect the price: this is all part of the picture and might lead to a different conclusion than buying solely on the basis of papers alone. However, for me there is no shame in admitting that I don't have balls of steel and that I prefer to have a financial risk underwritten to the greatest extent possible.

[Hoshi]

It's worth its own thread, but the more I think about it the more I think the motto 'Buy the Blade, not the papers' is too ambiguous to be of any value whatsoever as advice. 

 

1. Buy the Blade, not the papers = Don't succumb to ladder theory? (Valid)

2. Buy the Blade, not the papers = Buy what you like? (Mostly Invalid: preferences change over the lifespan)

3. Buy the Blade, not the papers = Trust your judgement? (Mostly Invalid: judgement evolves)

 

The two problematic interpretation only become valid for seasoned collectors and experts (at the asymptotic limit of expertise they become true). For beginner's, it's irresponsible and just sounds wise. In it's less favorable interpretation, I'd be tempted to say this is our version of virtue-signaling.  

 

Do it like a pro. 

 

I overturn Shinsa judgements for Breakfast. 

 

Most people want to lose the minimal amount of money possible by paying rent while enjoying a sword. If anything papers give your a floor guarantee. Because let's face it: when you start, you're clueless. Better to buy something valued by others than what your embryonic aesthetic appreciation of Nihonto tells you. I mean, what do you know?

 

If you're a beginner in a vaccum: Buy the NBTHK attribution, not the blade

 

If you're a beginner with access to knowledgeable people with your best interest in mind: Buy what you're told to buy

 

Does it sound cool? Certainly not. Does it erode your sense of agency? Probably. Will this avoid costly financial mistakes compared to Buy the Blade, not the paper? For sure.  

[vajo]

After reading the last comments i would think buy the paper that comes with a sword?

The paper is a oppinion. It guarantes not the worth of the blade.

There ia not a proofed pricetag on a papered sword and no one on a non papared.

 

For myself i would not buy a sword over a price x. I have a personel buy limit. Under that limit i buy swords with or without papers.

[b.hennick]

A few years ago, at a sword show a seller had two Enjyu blades. One had hozon papers, the other tokubetsu hozon. The one with hozon was the far better sword. That is the one I bought. I judged the swords and bought the better one - no regrets.