Value Of The Work

[raynor]

So I've reached a stage in my learning where I can tell kissaki from nakago (ok hopefully a little further then that!) and am at the moment skating dangerously close to the big black hole that is trying to understand blade value from who made it and when, and then origami influence, aka professional opinion, on this.

 

I should probably avoid this like the plague for now and move on to other things but I'll try to not fall in too deep, if someone would be so kind as to help me wade into shallow waters here rather then take the plunge.

 

For the sake of argument and trying to eliminate for me at the moment confusing factors such as smith reputation and eras, say we have a signed and dated Shinshinto katana sized blade that is ubu, great polish, no faults or damages.

 

The signature is by a fairly unknown smith with few known works, so the blade would have to be judged on it's own merit rather then against an extensive body of work. The smith is rated in say the Toko Taikan at a low even number between 1-1.5 million yen.

 

I know that for many people here that is not what you collect, I'm just trying to simplify things.

 

What would be a reasonable value for this, a basic, well made well preserved antique samurai sword with no big name or era inflation attached? $2000? $3000 or something else around there?

 

Then said blade passes Shinsa and gets a little bump beyond just "genuine nihonto" so either NTHK kanteisho level, or NBTHK tokubetsu hozon level - one up over each organization's basic level of approval. How would this influence the value now that experts have given their opinion to the blade being good quality rather then just genuine, or even failing?

 

Would a blade like this passing at kanteisho or TBH mean the Toko taikan rating was too low, or do people at the level of Shinsa judging not even consider those things?

 

What I'm trying to find is the value of a good work, not yet adding in factors such as smith reputation or era influence. That's another dance I will wobble through another time.

[TheGermanBastard]

I do not understand this

[Jwrussell]

I can't answer, but am very curious to see what our more knowledgeable members have to say. And I understand what you are asking.

[Stephen]

Omar i hope you walk out of this fog and see the light. IHO Your over thinking this.

[TETSUGENDO]

Wouldn't it be wonderful if there was a foolproof formula for this, I know that there are some who claim to have such a thing, but I find it highly doubtful....to many variables.  Pity, It would save us much time and expense.

 

Cheers,

   -S-

[Jussi Ekholm]

I think the easiest way is to search items by the smith from online dealers and see what the asking prices are/have been. If the smith is not totally unknown there should have been some of his work been sold by some of the dealers in Japan.

 

It is quite difficult to find well made well preserved long sword for 2000 - 3000$'s. You don't find too many long swords for sale at c. 2000$ range.

[BIG]

Omar, talking about your first Nihonto, a shin shinto katana?

 

Best

[raynor]

Stephen - I very well might be overthinking things. I've zoomed through previous threads on this and left thinking "hm?", so I've tried to simplify things for the sake of learning. As stated, maybe this is a fog/deep water I should avoid for now. I do know there will not be an answer with two lines under, but moving on up from headless chicken status is enough.

 

Jussi - what you are saying does of course make sense, but looking at different sites online there seems to be a lot of different opinions on seemingly similar works, hence why I thought eliminating variables like reputation, era and so made sense, leaving mostly bare the work itself.

 

 

Peter - you are close, my first sword would be close to what I set up in my first post, I realized that beyond sating curiosity this would be somewhat useful to know as I am changing my insurance plan soon and at the moment have no idea what to think regarding a nihonto in that regard. Things like car, house, TV, computers, statues etc. are easy but when it comes to this I am currently clueless. That was one of the reasons why I sent it to Shinsa, to try make this easier.

[TheGermanBastard]

To answer the posters question: Put it on eBay at 1 USD without reserve and you will see what others do think about its value and mor eimportant are willing to pay for it. The market decides on the price paid and no fancy expert. What someone puts out of his pocket and on the table is what it is worth at the end of the day - anythig else is academic talk.

[raynor]

Ebay is a good idea in theory, but no, I don't think that is a good idea in practicality. The vast majority of people who shop nihonto on ebay dont know what they are doing, I think many are still looking for the Honjo for $100 outta a garage sale, or that $50000 google translate dragon God super steel sword listing outta China.

Under or overpaying. Plus when it comes to selling or giving away antiques I believe I have a responsibility to make sure the item ends up with someone else who will also take good care of it, unless there is literally another zero added to the offer.

[TheGermanBastard]

Your whole question is leading too poor theories as it is way too vague to be even called theoretical. It is like proposing:

 

There is a girl next door aged around 30 - 40 in good physical shape with brown hair. Uncle Joe says she is a cheerfull woman. Uncle Hank thinks she has good habits. He younger brothr however believes she is annoying. How likely is it that somebody will mary her?

 

Answer: I do not know.

 

Then again all the theorie is out of place when it comes to determining a market price. There is no formula. If you think there is one, you will likely also have wanted to invest into bit coins once.

 

You can look up previous sold items that are similar. Then this is again a vague figure. Yesteday someone may have paid this and that price, on the very next day it will be another value.

 

Also forget about this Kanteisho versus Toko Taikan nonsense. >You have to look at a blade on a case by case study. You can have a poor blade by an excellent smith or an excellent blade by a poorly reviewed guy. Now which one is worth more? I can give you a honest answer: I do not know.

 

Look at dealer sites. At sites that actually sell swords and you have the best idea.

 

Also you seem to be way too gun shy.

 

A Daito with TBH in full polish at 2 - 3k? How should this figure work out when a polisher will take over 2k and the papers are atleast 500 bucks or even more when you are not based in Japan.

 

That is like I was hoping to impress a princess with my Opel Astra. Hard try event if its fully fulled ...

[Jwrussell]

To answer the posters question: Put it on eBay at 1 USD without reserve and you will see what others do think about its value and mor eimportant are willing to pay for it. The market decides on the price paid and no fancy expert. What someone puts out of his pocket and on the table is what it is worth at the end of the day - anythig else is academic talk.

 

I find this response dismissive, and not worthy of the discussion. My apologies for the bluntness, but there it is. Practically everything we discuss on this board is "academic talk".

[TheGermanBastard]

Personally I do think that the initial post is not worthy of discussuing and hence it was my fault to join the discussion. Lesson learned. I greet all arm chair talks. Not my cup of tea. Back into reality. Good bye.

[raynor]

As a teacher myself, without false modesty knowing I'm rather good at what I do, I know there is no such thing as an unworthy sincere question. Imagine how boring and stagnant it would be anywhere if people did not ask questions out of fear of being shot down or asking unworthy or silly questions.

 

I won't clam this thread is or will be a wellspring of new discussion or ideas but I won't ever be afraid to ask silly or unworthy questions. My mention of a possible Daito for 2-3k shows I apparently should keep asking questions, no?

 

On that note do one really factor in polish price on top of a sword once it's done? If so I had no idea.

[Fuuten]

As a teacher myself, without false modesty knowing I'm rather good at what I do, I know there is no such thing as an unworthy sincere question. Imagine how boring and stagnant it would be anywhere if people did not ask questions out of fear of being shot down or asking unworthy or silly questions.

 

I won't clam this thread is or will be a wellspring of new discussion or ideas but I won't ever be afraid to ask silly or unworthy questions. My mention of a possible Daito for 2-3k shows I apparently should keep asking questions, no?

 

On that note do one really factor in polish price on top of a sword once it's done? If so I had no idea.

Why wouldn't or shouldn't someone with a dilemma or simple question be welcome here? Isn't it all voluntary communication? Isn't it meant to teach and enlighten others? That is the reason people come here. To share and absorb.

[vajo]

The internet forget nothing. Keep this in mind by showing something you want sell later. (a little jokeing and run away). 

[Gakusee]

The problem is that you cannot isolate quality from the smith from the era from the blade. The are interconnected

 

You could have two blades by the same smith with radically different values due to condition - one could be mumei osuruage with some ware due to use / polish and the other could be well preserved so prices could be different by a factor.

 

Value could be contextual (eg toko Taikan ratings) or more absolute ( Fujishiro etc). Provenance, koshirae etc could all affect it.

 

Have you read Darcy’s blog (yuhindo.com) from beginning to end? If not, do so and peruse the ladder theory chapter that talks about certificates and quality. A lot of your questions are addressed in that blog , admittedly with examples of high end blades and smiths but the logic applies more generically.

[vajo]

Michael sorry, this answer is not the question. You can make the level in words up to the sky to limit the collectors two a handfull of humans who can buy those swords you explain. Where is the worth?

[Jwrussell]

My mention of a possible Daito for 2-3k shows I apparently should keep asking questions, no?

 

On that note do one really factor in polish price on top of a sword once it's done? If so I had no idea.

 

Omar, I'm as new to you (or newer) so take my comments with whatever caveat is needed. 

To the first question. You can absolutely find a Daito out there for $2-$3K. You will find them easier in Shirasaya than Koshirae, but that also factors into the price. With that said, will the be Daito that you really want to own? The consensus around here (from what I've seen) is going to be a resounding "NO". That is of course in general. I'm sure somewhere out there is a Daito worth far more than $2-3K that could be had in that range. But the chances of that happening are going to be extremely thin.  HOWEVER, that assumes a number of things that may not be true. A $2-$3K Daito that is truly worth $2-$3K may be just fine for one individual and not for another. That is where the whole, "it's worth what someone will pay" thing comes in. IMHO, that is one of the wonderful things about a hobby like this. Depending on why you collect, one man's "Meh", could be another's "Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhh".

 

On the second question as to value of polish. I would say yes, assuming I understand the question. I spoke with a collector who had a table (really a collector not a dealer, but he was selling) who had a blade on offer that needed polish. When we discussed pricing he stated that he had factored in the cost of a polish to the price he was asking so that someone would be able to get into the sword without immediately being completely underwater after polish. I can't tell you if that value proposition would pan out as I couldn't tell you if what he was asking for the sword + polish is what the blade was worth. But those were his words.

 

With that said, my understanding that a new polish will run in the $2K range. So that Daito we are talking about is not likely to be anywhere near fresh polish, and if you found one in fresh polish being offered for that amount it is either a steal, or something is very wrong.

[raynor]

I should have listened to Stephen and ran out of the fog! Thanks for your answers so far all. The numbers in my first post was deliberately on the low side, probably too low but yes, what I had in mind but failed to mention was a blade in shirasaya, no koshirae obviously as theoretically you can have tosogu more valuable then the blade itself.

 

And Chris, those are wise words indeed, but I'm not planning to sell anything, rather insure. I know I did get a _very_ good deal on my first sword tho, thanks to the gentleman John on this forum! 

 

I understand a smith and quality is inseparable, and probably a signed blade was a bad example then when judging an item from the work alone and not the associated smith. 

 

Most definitively not suggesting there is something wrong with some names carrying a big presence versus others or unknown maker, I know that it is by far most common among us greenhorns to place weight on things such as ratings, names, eras et cetera versus someone with a trained eye and knowledge who can tell almost automatically what they're looking at without thinking.

[Gakusee]

Chris S

I am not sure you are understanding me? No one is talking about expensive swords here. Please reread my post. It talks about the fact t that you cannot separate just the value of “the work” or the value of the “certificates”’( even though Omar was trying to ask how TH would change the value from Hozon or analogous progression under NTHK, say from 70 points to 78 points). That is why you cannot see any dollar amounts in my response, unlike all the other responders.

 

Of course, then Omar decided to weave in a complication and interject that apart from the theoretical question which he was posing, actually, then he really wanted to know the potential value of an unknown shinshinto smith whose blade he was thinking of buying. Well, these are related but different theses, my dear interlocutor. We are either theoretical or very specific in the questions we ask. If he wants to know how much to put aside for the latter, there are plenty of replies above.

[raynor]

Michael,

 

Just to clarify I'm not looking to buy or sell anything besides maybe a nice pair of menuki, there's other more sensible routes for that should I have questions on buying or selling a sword.

 

I'm having my first go trying to figure out something I probably should have listened to Stephen about and stayed out of the fog.

 

At least there seems to be something people have opinions about on the table, so that's good.