Kicho Papers 2.0

[seattle1]

Hello:

 In another thread elsewhere here I called attention to an NBTHK shinsa paper for a Shinkai offered on the site of Andy Quirt, nihonto.us that bears the Latin alphabetical prefix B. S. g.h. to its serial number. There is a similar paper on the site of Danny Massey, nihontocraft.com for a Kunimichi. Both smiths are considerable and both papers are dated Showa 55 (1980). That led to a number of comments, one a particularly weird one demonstrating some command with 8th grade arithmetic and an equally foul mouthed command of 8th grade speech. It doesn't need to be dignified with a reply as such but the spooky issue of the validity of NBTHK Kicho, Tokubetsu Kicho and Maru Tokubetsu Kicho papers do need some fleshing out.

 An impression is left by some that such papers are all to be treated as poison and that has clearly led to a appreciation and financial down grade of the associated blades, at least on the part of newer collectors learning the ropes. I have never (!) said that all such papers are good, but when blades with them are encountered a certain amount of common sense is called for. I do agree that with the passage of time the bad blades and papers will be identified and hopefully not passed on, though no mechanism can assure the latter. My background is in economics, having been a tenured professor of same for decades and now retired, and in economics risk is a major issue is various ways and like crossing the street, driving to work, or taking a new Rx, it is always there. Risk is a first cousin of probability and what bothers me in the discussion of such papers is that likelihood regarding a Kicho paper is swept away.

 There is no way to know exactly how many swords there are in Japan, it may be possible to know how many genuine papers of the Kicho types have been legitimately issued in Japan and the US, but it is doubtless very unlikely that the number of bad blades and papers were concocted is known. I fully understand the importance of knowing in individual cases. Following Joseph Alsop's notion:  a. collectors determine their own category of collection, b. by determining the categories the relative rarities are determined, and c. every collector wants to be sure that his or her object of collection is "right" for its designated category. Therefore "c." is the source of the anxiety.

 There may be better information elsewhere but I would refer everyone to the Newsletter of the Nanka Token Kai, Vol. 5, No. 1 (January, 1986), wherein the issue of the bad papers is discussed at some length. It seems that most of the bad stuff are imitations of shinto and shinshinto and the handiwork of a forger working in Fukuoka using gendaito, seemingly blades made by post war smiths, though that restriction isn't entirely clear, which were unsigned by them and then worked up by the forger, essentially signing and ageing. The subsequent gangster activity, distribution and police involvement is also discussed. Quite a number of nakago, 56 by my count are shown. There are three koto, all Muramasa (what else?), and about an equal split between shinto and shinshinto. Eight are highly cursive, advantage forger no doubt. I saw such names as Tadayoshi, Kanesada, Tadatsune, Sukenao, Kotetsu, Kiyomaro, Motohira, Naotane, Yukihide, Munestugu, and so forth. Most to my amateur eye look very good and the sort of thing one would have to study at some length.

 So there are bad blades out there and the NBTHK HQ responded quickly and appropriately. When a big name smith with a Tokubetsu Kicho paper is encountered, of course one should be cautious and wonder why it was not  resubmitted under the new Hozon program, but its existence does not make it wrong. There is one type of Tokubetsu Kicho paper that is not wrong and it is those carrying the Latin letter prefix that got this rolling and I was most curious if they were US shinsa codes, or what. I contacted a correspondent at the NBTHK and posed the question. Here is the answer: "During late 1970's and early 1980's (Showa 50's), forged Tokubetsu Kicho papers were often made. [how many is "often"?] To prevent forgery we changed the serial number rule and wrote some Latin letters on the paper. So the Latin letters were not the indicator of shinsa in the USA." He goes on to comment on the Hozen system starting in 1982.

 So what to conclude: except for the above mentioned, which have an official OK, for the rest study and confirmation and not the death penalty is called for.

 This also brings me to the silly notion that any unpapered blade coming from Japan has to be bad, but that is for another day,

 Arnold F.

[Rivkin]

Prof. Arnold, you touch all the good points, but just to add a few very personal considerations:

a. There were quite a few utsushi of Kiyomaro, Masahide and a few others ordered and then "resigned" by a gentleman in Fukuoka. Some still have green papers, some however come with new papers. In both cases often the papers were issued to the original blade and then "passed on" to copies. Some actually, if you file down the signature, are very high quality examples of by now well known gendai smith.

b. "Forged papers" in NBTHK language can be "papers issued by NBTHK personnel without shinsa or official registration". It goes for recent TH issues, it goes for the earlier issues as well.

In both [a] and the issue concerns predominantly shinshinto and a few (Kotetsu, Shinkai) shinto artists.

c. The main issue with green papers is that judgement standards constantly shift. Not a problem if you collect signed and dated Bizen blades. Much bigger problem if you are in a business of selling early unsigned Soshu but with large "signature premium" due to particular attribution. Such blade getting Hozon in 1999 and getting Hozon today undergoes different judgment with different criteria. Green papers - there is yet another level of divergence, which btw does not mean that older standards were always better or worse.

If you collect Masamune you must be ready that the assessment will always be somewhat shaky, as there are really no blades that combine all 3-4 of his main characteristics, usually there are just two. You can get ko-Uda in the worst, slightly better off with Shizu Kaneuji, possibly Norishige, probably Soshu Yukimitsu, but it can be Hasebe or Naotane if the blade is believed to be later, and so on, and so on.

d. There is far bigger problem with Juyo blades from late 1970s, which no one wants to get into open since the market depends on unshakable belief in permanence of Juyo attribution. Some late 1970s judgements were "optimistic" in terms of attribution, but often it is just average old blades (ko mihara) in poor condition still having Juyo.

 

And on top of that there is whole bunch of fears - "if this blade were real, if would not just get NTHK papers for it", "I heard it is a troubled Juyo, which was given to a dealer outside of Japan because it failed to get Tanobe-sensei's sayagaki" etc. etc. etc.

 

Dr. Kirill A. Rivkin

[Jean]

If one refers to Japan, serious dealers have 99% of their blades papered, more than 90% of these papered blades are NBTHK papered with the « new » NBTHK system, remaining papers are NTHK, Fujishiro... papers. It is normal as NBTHK is the dealers’reference. NBTHK makes the market. Go to DTI if you want to be sure of my sayings.

Now, Japanese dealers don’t even think over old certificates. They put the swords directly to shinsa.

I am not going to be more royalist than the king if all Japanese dealers are going for new NBTHK certificates putting the old ones aside.

 

Right or wrong, I don’t care, my opinion does not count, I follow the trend as the trend drives the market, that is what I call common/good sense...

 

The fact that an old certificate is valid or not is irrelevant, that’s just a fact.

[Rivkin]

I lived in Japan for quite a few years and that is not my observation.

Some dealers (Ginza Choshuya, Sokendo) will be in Juyo range, they will have plenty of TH, but other papers will be scarce. Some will never touch NTHK etc.

Level below in price you'll find whole bunch of varied papers, including greens. Aoi Art, whatever the store name that was just across the corner from him, Kimura san etc. etc. etc. Probably one out of ten, twenty will be unpapered, if you go to a simple antique store, then you'll see basically half are unpapered. Whole bunch of naginata, yari, shinto looking wakizashi, out of polish tanto. 

For a dealer having "current" NBTHK papers is a definite plus. Is it a real plus in terms of authenticity is a much more involved problem.

 

Dr. Kirill A. Rivkin

[seattle1]

Hello Jean:

I've been to the DTI 7 or 8 times and of course the newer Hozon set predominates. That is the only game in town there. My objection to the view that some try to pound out as universal belief regarding the Kicho type papers is to the contrary, namely that those still in circulation are not all are wrong and culprits will not be winnowed out for quite a while. In the meantime too much emphasis is blindly focused on papers and to say that owners of blades with old papers should jump to sending them to Japan seems mildly hysterical. If they wish to do it fine, but is there anything wrong with more study and self-development? It is not that easy to send a blade to Japan, the cost and other associated risks are hardly zero, and for someone to possibly conclude that to own such a blade is such a hot potato that it has to be "moved on" could be the first step in a large financial mistake. For folks living in the US there are regular shinsa by both NTHK groups and who is to say their considerations, all other things aside, are less valid that those of the NBTHK? Liquidity enhancing might not be the same, but who is to say their shinsa judges are anything other than highly qualified? Not me. It wouldn't happen of course but what fun it would be to see the outcome of a kantei contest between the top two NTHK judges and two amateur gunslingers so full of their own expertise?

Arnold F.

[Jean]

Rivkin,

 

When you go to lesser quality blades, kanteisho are just papers and you don’t pay thousands for them. The old papered or non papered blades in dealers shops are the ones which are not judged worth a shinsa price. Now for the others (corner shops) bundled swords, naginata, yari are not sold as papered swords but rather as souvenirs

 

Arnold,

 

I entirely agree with you, there are real experts/scholars in both NTHK organizations and I am sure that their kanteisho are as valid as NBTHK ones, even if in the Nihonto world they are not considered as good as NBTHK ones for historical reasons rather than objective reasons. I am sure that some green papers are valid but should I be in the States, I shall double it by an NTHK kanteisho as the North American market is used to them. You described exactly my mood about sending a blade to Japan for papering, too much hassle/too expensive. I don’t need to have my blades upgraded from Hozon to TH as their quality speak for them. That is the reason why I buy my blades in Japan and have them papered before sending them to France. In Europe, NBTHK prevails...

[Peter Bleed]

Arnold,

Once again you have brought us to an interesting discussion. I contributed to one of the earlier discussions of Kicho papers, but I’m pretty sure I did not contribute any 8^th grade vulgarity. I suppose I could have, but I KNOW I would have fallen short of demonstrating any 8^th grade mathematics. I apologize if I was off hand.

Your treatment of the topic helped me see that sword collecting has moved in a new direction. Once again, we see that there is a difference between collecting Japanese swords and “Japanese sword collecting.” Japanese collectors (and many of them are not “Japanese”) are now assembling collections of newly certified swords. Japanese culture – since the Muromachi period – has been marked by fads and mania. There have been a couple of these in sword collecting. The mid-Edo Namban craze was one. The need for certified “Masamunes” in Meiji times was another, and there have been others. In sword collecting – as in other social activities - Japanese like to learn the rules and then follow them.  It sounds to me like a new set of rules are being promulgated by the NBTHK and the current crop of major sword dealers. And not surprisingly, serious “Japanese” sword collectors are embracing those categories,  .   .  just like Alsop said they would.

Peter

[Vermithrax16]

I am not sure if what the point of this thread is. Yes, there are old papers swords that are good. No, not all are good. Case by case basis and the longer term folks here know how to do that.

 

The basic math in the thread we have all seen 100X is solid. You want to show it's not? Buy at random 10 green paper blades (from Ebay preferably, it's where they show up most) and resubmit for new papers. See conversion rate. Not 10 you did a ton of work on, just 10 randoms. Simple experiment.

[PNSSHOGUN]

Personal relationships and biases are not hard evidence to disprove a known and accepted reality in Japanese sword authentication and dealing. There are a limited number of people who would be directly invested from the "uncertainty" of Kicho papers, the majority of them are selling on ebay or other volatile markets right now. That isn't a gang trusted dealers want to be lumped in with.  

 

In any experienced collectors mind there is only one reason a high level sword with old green papers has not been repapered.

[Surfson]

I bought a large collection of swords that was amassed in the 70s.  Many of them had/have kicho, tokubetsu kicho or koshu tokubetsu kicho papers.  The heirs to the collection began to submit several of the "bigger" named swords to NTHK-NPO, and I have submitted many of the remaining swords, at least the ones that I was interested in or thought were likely good.  I would say, without having taken an accounting, that at least half of them papered similarly to the call in the older NBTHK papers after NTHK-NPO shinsa.  I don't want to start a raft of NTHK-NPO bashing, but this does give some indication of the reliability of the old papers.  Of course, buying ten green papered swords on ebay now, especially ones from Japan, would nearly guarantee that none or at best one or two, are shoshin.

[Rivkin]

As always I look at the message board and find exactly the opposite stated from what I've seen for many years in real life. Probably saw and see once a year a sword with green papers going for 4 mil yen at dealer's auction. Yes, it would have Dr. Honma's sayagaki, maybe published, maybe daimyo, and maybe even early daimyo provenance. Why it does not have "modern papers"? Well, maybe it got Shizu Kaneuji attribution instead of o-Sa or Naotsuna, which it had per green papers and every other attribution. Maybe the owner did not bother. Maybe he died last week and the dealer was asked to sell them asap. This kind of things unfortunately are very common today in Japan - you suddenly get mass mail that 90 blades are out on sale, and they are basically as is.

Yes, sayagaki might play a bigger role for blades with green papers, as per I've never seen any issue (except they might not repaper with the same attribution) witht those signed by Tanobe-sensei.

 

Now green papered sword going for 2mil - this one happens in Japan every month. I wish there would be piles of swords with green papers to Sadamune going for chop change - but alas never seen them ever. If its a big koto name, there is a high chance it will paper to something very close to it.

Maybe there will be a downgrade, but you take Masamune Juyo and send it to get Hozon, and well you might get a downgrade as well.

There are exceptions like Muramasa, but that's a special troublesome case. 

 

And I have to admit to buying quite a few of those unpapered souvenirs, unfortunately not for a chop change (where can I have them at souvenir prices??). Mostly it turns out to be the loss (obviously dozen people looked at this blade before and thought that's not worth taking a chance), but sometimes it comes out an interesting blade which gets good papers (if papers are being the goal).

[BIG]

Hi Kirill, please post the "paper" article from your site, good read for our members.

 

Best

[Rivkin]

Thank you very much for your vote of confidence, but both of those are much too long for a forum message.

What I would like to add is probably my personal opinion that some dealers who invest personally rather than work with consignments see the problem in a very different light.

A good dealer does not "like" swords because when you like something more than others do, you are going to overpay.

He looks at a resale point. Which is for him all about papers.

So, say there is tanto Sadamune that goes for 2mil with green papers (and with good sayagaki this would be sort of a bottom price in Japan).

He thinks - ok Sadamune:Nobukuni:Shimada is a lineup to expect with this particular sugata (say its a somewhat later one), and since it does not sell with modern papers it probably papered to either Nobukuni or Shimada. So its 60% chance I will have unsgined Nambokucho Nobukuni (say 0.9-1.6mil) and 40% - Shimada den (0.6-0..

Basically I am being robbed blind out of 70% of my investment since around the top names the payout scale is very nonlinear and small downgrade can push the price down 10 times or more easily.

 

But you look at this from a collector prospective, it might be "I am buying Sadamune with issues. I still personally think its a great piece, and I am getting it literally at 6% of what it did cost at the peak. It comes with a risk that it was downgraded for some reason. The next generation shinsa might see it differently, or I need to invest in better polish. I might have problems reselling it since people on the forum will say - Sadamune on ebay?? Ha!.

Financially it might be not the safest move, but neither is collecting per se". 

In the end it comes down to how much one likes the sword. If its Sadamune level like - grab, run, hide.

[Darcy]

Probably saw and see once a year a sword with green papers going for 4 mil yen at dealer's auction. Yes, it would have Dr. Honma's sayagaki, maybe published, maybe daimyo, and maybe even early daimyo provenance. Why it does not have "modern papers"?

 

Because of everything you said it has.

 

In order to understand why green papers are bad, you need to understand three basic things:

 

1. the scandal in which bad results were deliberately rendered through the influence of yakuza and greed

2. that the NBTHK had a bias in early years to issue low level papers on blades that were questionable in order to encourage people to preserve artifacts, and with the understanding that the NBTHK was also a developing institution

3. that both these judgments were rendered outside the main office and so done without the top level of scholarship involved

 

When you see Dr. Honma's sayagaki, that is an indication that this is not one of those blades. His judgments are quite reliable and so you can ignore the rest. 

 

As well, the dealers who are buying have enough expertise to understand what they are looking at. 

 

Some of them deliberately buy those blades with bad papers to sell to idiots who will defend the papers. They know exactly what they are doing, they won't try to repaper it to a new solid paper, they are intending on taking it to Yahoo Japan to sell to people who think they will win the lottery every day. As such a known bad paper with a high level name on it has value because they can sell it for a certain amount.

 

But the blade with Dr. Honma's sayagaki, this is worth far more than the paper as if the quality is good then they know this will confirm already and potentially have a door open to be considered Juyo. 

 

But I stress that these are people who live and breathe swords and they are under no false impressions about the reliability of these papers in the slightest. The papers for them are a vessel to confirming an independent opinion for a client. On their own they know what they are looking at as dealers.

 

The last category is because poor judgment may not be necessarily wrong as an equal and opposite manner, but it may be in the right area. Dr. Honma's sayagaki to Hisakuni in one case went through to Tokuju as just Awataguchi. Without his sayagaki a Takagi Sadamune with green papers was well known and tried to be sold by US dealers for $80,000. That blade was purchased in Japan for $16,000 approx because both the dealer selling it and the dealer buying it knew that the green paper was full of crap and nobody who knows anything has to have any extended arguments about the crap level of green papers. 

 

The only people who extensively defend green papers are:

 

1. people who own collections that contain green papered blades they want to believe in

2. people who want to source them for cheap and sell them to guys who think they are winning the lottery every day

3. people who want to believe the dream as a buyer so that they can beat the system and buy that Shinkai for 30% of the market price

 

In the case of this blade with the green paper to Takagi Sadamune, it did pass Juyo but to Naoe Shizu. Even after that the dealers who had it continued to try to push to convince buyers (one of whom was a very young me) that the blade was SOSHU Sadamune on the strength of the green paper, and incorrectly judged to Naoe Shizu. They promoted that the Takagi Sadamune paper needed to be used to reapply to get the true attribution of SOSHU Sadamune. The blade was still pushed at $80,000. The real story is that they had attempted this several times in several ways to get the Sadamune attribution confirmed and the NBTHK made it clear that in no way shape or form was it Sadamune. Then they tried to return it to be Takagi Sadamune and the NBTHK was not accepting that either, they made it clear they knew these guys were playing a game and it was detected, and they would not accept the game playing. It was a good blade but Juyo Naoe Shizu was final.

 

However this green paper continued to be dangled in front of drooling idiots as a promise that the blade was something more than it was. "This is Soshu Sadamune and if not then it is Takagi Sadamune as this green paper said. What? Someone told you that green papers are not reliable? They are wrong. They don't know what they are talking about. They are a crank. Yada yada yada. You can be the one who buy this one now for cheap and finish the story." And people fall in for the line.

 

Now, when that blade sold to the first dealer in Japan, he was not an idiot and he did not believe it to be Sadamune but he understood it to be an over judgment of a good koto blade so he bought it. This is not the problem I continually talk about. The dealer he sold it to was not an idiot and also had no belief in it being Sadamune but understood it to be a good koto blade. For this reason people who know what they are doing can transact in green papered blades. In this case the dealer picking it up in Japan knew he could do a profitable trade with new papers and an accurate judgment and indeed it went to Naoe Shizu and Juyo giving him room to sell it for a profit. 

 

So this is not to say "never transact in a green papered blade." This is to say don't believe the green paper. You can treat it as your friend's advice or else treat the blade as a blade with no papers and make your own decision. That is all. But these are not things that new collectors can do or understand, and they also are not informed that there is any problem at all with green papers. Especially the guy selling them the green papered blade has no intention of holding his hand and explaining the issues. 

 

The problem is at its highest when that blade goes down the chain to the final dealer who is retailing it, and to consumers who are sold this song and dance which is simple fraud. And the paper is used to defraud that guy. That same guy will not buy a legitimate piece. He only wants to buy something for less than he thinks it is worth. We encounter this guy every day. This guy buys in, sends to Japan, gets the hand shoved in his face, comes back and says "everything is a scam" asks the corrupt dealer who sold him the junk to sell it to another cycle and he exits the hobby. 

 

So we lose one guy who could have contributed if he had realistic expectations, and furthermore he participates in defrauding the next collector on his way out the door.

 

Yet, everyone moans about the community seeming to shrink: well, this is a major reason why it is hard to grow the community.

 

Because very few people eat their mistakes, people are prepared to defraud their neighbors, and when someone like me is trying to wave the flag on an obvious problem that will help the community the result is a bunch of knives stuck in my back from everyone who profits off this crap or wants to defend the financial value of bad things they bought in the past.

 

These all all reasons why newbies get scared off fast and when you can't find people to sell your good and legitimate items to because they won't join into the community, think about the community's reluctance to air out problems like this. 

 

 

Well, maybe it got Shizu Kaneuji attribution instead of o-Sa or Naotsuna, which it had per green papers and every other attribution. Maybe the owner did not bother. Maybe he died last week and the dealer was asked to sell them asap. This kind of things unfortunately are very common today in Japan - you suddenly get mass mail that 90 blades are out on sale, and they are basically as is

 

Yes it's in agreement with what I've said above. The judgment can be in the area because it was just poorly judged, and yes, as-is and the dealer community buying them knows what they are dealing with. Sometimes on purpose buying green papers to sell them to an idiot and sometimes buying and ignoring the papers but reading the sword with a fresh kantei. 

 

 

Yes, sayagaki might play a bigger role for blades with green papers, as per I've never seen any issue (except they might not repaper with the same attribution) witht those signed by Tanobe-sensei.

 

It does indeed play a bigger role because you can just throw the paper away and you still have a good judgment if the judge was good, but you also need to be sure that the sayagaki has not been faked. This has happened as well. Another trick is that people will swap swords and find a good sayagaki on a good blade to fit their old blade. This can be used to prop up bad green papers. Again, at dealer auction they do not have any romantic notions and are not stupid people. They don't believe in green papers like some people over here who won't let go of the dream. 

 

When I went to auction in London for the fittings collection I didn't look at the catalog, but I sat with a friend and looked at every blade and gave my own kantei. When my kantei agreed with what was in the book I felt more secure about what the book said. That's how I ended up with my fine Kanemitsu. And it had no problems papering through to Juyo as Kanemitsu afterwards.

 

I had no romantic notions about what the museum had to say about their own collection. That is how you have to do it if you are going to dive into the junk pile and try to sort it all out. 

 

The problem only comes back to an unreliable paper in the modern day being used to retail a dream to a sucker who wants to believe the dream. It sets him up for fraud, gives him a quick exit out of the community, and is then set up to defraud another and so on. It is a collector destroying virus and it is bad for everyone except for the dealer who is using the papers to repeatedly sell garbage to suckers. That guy makes money over and over again by wiping out new collectors. So the damage is shared by everyone except that dealer. This is why we as a community cannot retain romantic notions over the status of these papers. Because we all share the damage and it limits the ability of the community to grow.

 

 

Now green papered sword going for 2mil - this one happens in Japan every month. I wish there would be piles of swords with green papers to Sadamune going for chop change - but alas never seen them ever.

 

At one time I saw online three green papered Masamune for sale at Japanese auction sites. If you go and look there are several still there probably. And as mentioned I had personal experience with a green papered Takagi Sadamune and if you want some green papered Sadamune I can very likely get you a bucket full.

 

If its a big koto name, there is a high chance it will paper to something very close to it.

 

No it's not a high chance. Masamune is not going to come back as Norishige. It is going to come back as a Shinto fake. 

 

If Norishige papers to Uda, it is "close" in the sense of being in the right area but it is not close in terms of value. 

 

If it is Kanemoto or Nosada, it's just going to come back as gimei. 

 

But, it CAN happen that a Masamune becomes Shizu. That's why you need to use your brain and to analyze the sword as if it had no papers. The title of my first post about these problems was that green papers = no papers and the thrust was that the only thing you can really bet on if you want to take the odds is that it's by someone who is not listed in the papers. 

 

It doesn't say throw the BLADE away it says throw the PAPERS away. If your Shinkai is OK it will fly through to Tokubetsu Hozon with or without those green papers. If you want to buy a green papered Shinkai, take the papers entirely out of your brain and evaluate it like an ebay find. 

 

Maybe there will be a downgrade, but you take Masamune Juyo and send it to get Hozon, and well you might get a downgrade as well.

 

Not likely. 

 

There are several categories of Masamune. 

 

1. doubtlessly Masamune

2. most likely Masamune

3. old attribution to Masamune and begrudgingly accepted 

4. old attribution to Masamune but dismissed in the setsumei 

 

1, 3, 4 will pass again as they did. The 2nd can go back and forth.

 

But, if you are shopping for Masamune you need to be aware of this and what you're looking at. The reasons that 1 passes as it does is that it has everything necessary. The reasons 2 pass as they do is that it is either masterwork of Yukimitsu or Shizu or Go or good work of Masamune. 

 

Those under 3 and 4, it's important to read the setsumei of every Masamune before buying so you know what you are dealing with. The begrudgingly accepted ones need to be understood as a Soshu school blade by one of four or five candidates and because of the historical judgment that is still with the blade, it is being left alone. The explanation is there for a reason but a lot of westerners stop reading at the first column. For some reason they never translate their setsumei or the sayagaki. I don't know why it is. But that's where the learning is. Item 4 that is dismissed in the sayagaki needs to be understood that it's still in the set of candidates of top smiths in Soshu but Masamune is the very least chance out of the group.

 

 

A good dealer does not "like" swords because when you like something more than others do, you are going to overpay.

He looks at a resale point. Which is for him all about papers.

 

I have asked dealers in Japan what their favorite sword is and I got the answer of "Kiyomaro" and I asked why and he said "it's money." 

 

The best dealer of them all is Kurokawa san though and he clearly loves swords. He is a major collector first and foremost. I think your choice of words here is poor to say that a "good" dealer does not "like" swords. 

 

There is no "overpay" or "underpay" unless you are dealing with commodities. The best of all items are not commodities and you pay what you work out between the buyer and the seller. I have had a fine tachi handed to me, been told it was ready for Juyo Bunkazai but the owner chickened out at the last minute. This blade was previously sold for 170 million yen. The current owner bought it for 130 million yen. Both loved it. Now, who overpaid and who underpaid? We won't know until it's sold again and it is not going to be sold again in the open. It is Tokuju by the way and the prices above are over a million dollars. 

 

Furthermore if you like it, that blade pays you dividends forever while you own it. The problem when you don't like it it's just immovable merchandize. 

 

So the question is: how much is your happiness, fulfilment and enjoyment worth to you? That is a subjective value that goes into this purchase. It is not a spreadsheet calculation. 

 

Now, I love swords. I love that sword. I dream of that sword. But I know it is too expensive for me to own and for everyone else I know to own so I don't try to buy it. If I had that kind of money though I would be working on trying to get this sword. 

 

I have some things coming up for my website that I already wrote to a client and said, "I might die with this one. If so I want to go out like a Kofun warlord I want this to go into my grave." Who will buy it from me? I have no idea. I will take the chance as a "bad" dealer who "likes" swords. My love for swords has lead me to great items, though not always affordable. But, I'm not in this to churn out Chu-jo saku shinto mumei wakizashi. I'm in this to touch greatness. 

 

I will flip it around and say a bad dealer is the one who doesn't like swords because you need to like swords in order to both reach in depth knowledge and also to harmonize with the emotions of your client. 

 

If you don't like cars, you will never know what is going through the mind of the man who comes into your store to buy a Ferrari. If you do like cars and you do like Ferraris and stepping on the gas gives you goose bumps, then when that man comes into your store your brainwaves are in sync. 

 

If you are buying cars for resale and if something triggers your heart, and if you are in sync with other lovers of items, then, you will obtain items that are worthy of love.

 

If you don't like swords what you have is an endless parade of commercial grade merchandize. It was picked by accounting methods and it will sell by accounting methods. You will not develop your eye and your customers will not develop their eye but everyone will have a nice spreadsheet. 

 

Those are two valid ways of developing a business. Because selling 70 swords a month picked by spreadsheet does work to sustain a business. It is more reliable. But if you want this you can buy a gas station too or a convenience store. It's the same business to you. Those are better businesses actually.

 

So, say there is tanto Sadamune that goes for 2mil with green papers (and with good sayagaki this would be sort of a bottom price in Japan).

 

Yes, at 2 million yen for a reliable Sadamune there is a very strong buyer's market but it is well below the bottom price. 

 

He thinks - ok Sadamune:Nobukuni:Shimada is a lineup to expect with this particular sugata (say its a somewhat later one), and since it does not sell with modern papers it probably papered to either Nobukuni or Shimada.

 

This example is now discussing an unreliable sayagaki. But yes, this is pretty much exactly how it works, green papered Sadamune, blade looks good and koto just a weak judgment, it is falling into the Soshu area somewhere. 

 

So its 60% chance I will have unsgined Nambokucho Nobukuni (say 0.9-1.6mil) and 40% - Shimada den (0.6-0. .

Basically I am being robbed blind out of 70% of my investment since around the top names the payout scale is very nonlinear and small downgrade can push the price down 10 times or more easily.

 

Not sure about the conclusion. If what you have is a blade that is Juyo quality Nobukuni it comes out quite well. Shimada is going to lose you for sure though. 

 

But good quality Nanbokucho Nobukuni that is going to pass Juyo, I don't think this is available at 900,000 yen.

 

The thinking is right though, this is how collectors need to assess green papers.

 

PS. Regarding my previous post I use words like "crap" around green papers because after 40 years of evidence people still romantically cling to it so its the only way to get someone's attention and to make it clear it's not just a gentlemanly agreement and acceptance of divergent points of view. Crap, is crap and needs to be pointed out because it is a position that stinks and I'm tired of watching people being defrauded by others and come to me on email with this same problem. 

[Brian]

Debates and discussion like this NEED to be had.
I sometimes get criticism because I allow dissenting opinions to be debated and discussed, but I find ones like the above to be the best education of all.
Nothing aside from discussion like this will put the idea into a beginners head to think.
Whichever side you decide on, when you next come across green papers you are going to have a long and thoughtful discussion in your head and remember a lot of the above info, and that is what is most important.
Appreciate everyone (especially Darcy, Arnold and Kirill) taking the time to present their thoughts.
The end result is as we have always said...buy the sword/quality not the papers. And with old papers...consider why they have not been converted if the sword is high level.
Looking forward to more discussion.

[Rivkin]

I can only speak from my experience - and it is that green papered swords to Masamune or Sadamune are frankly quite uncommon.

I don't think there are any on yahoo right now or have been for at least couple of months (my memory banks don't go further).

It is extremely seldom that those would come without sayagaki. That was sort of a custom in 1970s - if it is a scary name you should get sayagaki. I see that often sayagaki predates the papers.

Anything coming today stand-alone with a very top name and just green papers is strange (but I guess Americans were not getting sayagaki in 1970s, as a rule). I would not call buyers of such things idiots. I don't remember if I ever bought something like this so simply can't speak about the experience.

But then again I personally don't see this very often (at all) with really top koto names. Its always green + sayagaki (no, Muramasa is not the top name, no matter what Fujishiro's book says). Or green + other papers.

 

Sayagaki of Dr. Honma I would very personally put higher than the current shinsa - but only if it comes with papers, as I've seen plenty of "standalone" saya with his writing married to utsushi.

Sayagaki of Tanobe-sensei will rank above current shinsa. I think its a general feeling among those interested in koto.

Sayagaki of Dr. Sato is most common, and there are those reflecting more traditional judgement. But I've never seen Masamune or Sadamune with his writing being "fake-fake", or "bad-bad". You might get Norishige, Uda T., Naotsuna, maybe something weird like Kinju. 

Sometimes there is a hint in writing the judgement is just copying older register, sometimes writing is passionate and then if its from before 1976 I would take as a strong suggestion there is something important there, irrespective whether the modern shinsa sees it exactly like this or not. Also sometimes he has to be taken very literally.

Now with other sayagaki its pretty much hit and miss. There are some that are quite important by themselves, even if the blade is agh, and then there are some that look unreliable but the blade looks ok.

 

In all these cases I strongly prefer to see green papers with sayagaki rather than just sayagaki. Makes a case its not a fake, married saya etc. 

But the detailed attribution will tend to be in a debatable area, and the judgement of the current shinsa is just the opinion of the current shinsa. If you are not a dealer looking for a resale - and there is nothing wrong with that, but it defines the interest level. Otherwise there is a good chance you'll eventually live with your sword to hear how there were issues with "yellow" papers (top names, obviously) and how you need to repaper them to new, "black papers". Or maybe all Juyo judgements made before 1983 will be downgraded to "older Juyo" that needs to be recertified to be included in a new, groundbreaking register of superior swords. Were not green papers supposed to be final and correct replacement of those questionable judgements issued by NBTHK during the occupation just to save sword from confiscation?

And before that, there were Honami generations, each supposedly more final and correct than others.

[wakiboy]

I’m finding this discussion fascinating and very educational, even as a novice it is one of the best discussions I’ve seen on this group, I assume this subject has been dealt with before as some of you knowledgeable collectors seem to be getting a little agitated.

Well done guys, this is a subject that needs to be discussed...

 

Ian

[Rivkin]

There are several categories of Masamune. 

 

1. doubtlessly Masamune

2. most likely Masamune

3. old attribution to Masamune and begrudgingly accepted 

4. old attribution to Masamune but dismissed in the setsumei 

 

 

I have to admit this caused me to pause for a little since it is a hard one to dispute - you'll show an example of reattributed Masamune and it can be said to be [3] or [4].

Then I thought - what is the most famous Masamune blade today? Well, it is got to be Fudo Masamune, the only unquestionable singed, published in every single text by every single author.

 

One problem - looks saiha in hand. And was certified as such in the 19th century before it was accepted as the only, unquestionable, canonical, signed Masamune. One of the reasons you don't see much in its photographs, nor would you ever see good photographs of it.

 

Just a highly personal, ignorant and questionable opinion.

 

Dr. Kirill A. Rivkin

[Jean]

Rivkin,

 

There are always other cases, one of which being a Yamato blade which is famous on the Board. It has a double sayagaki on the shirasaya:

 

On the Omote, Sayakaki by Honma Junji to Hosho school.

On the Ura, sayagaki by Tanobe to Hosho school

 

I submitted the sword to Shinsa, it came back with an NBTHK Hozon Kanteisho to Tegai Kanekiyo who forged in masame.

[Rivkin]

To much of my amusement (small world) I was just working on getting some sayagaki done. While talking to the agent it became apparent that the wakizashi that was "discussed" here (offered by Andy Quirt) just received sayagaki from Tanobe san. 

 

Kirill R.

[PNSSHOGUN]

Did it paper to the original attribution? From memory the Wazkizashi in question had a different type of green paper that was done during an NBTHK Shinsa to the USA.

[Rivkin]

As far as I remember it was signed, the attribution holds. It has green papers from Tokyo, not US.

 

Kirill R.

[David Flynn]

I go to Japan, almost yearly.  Occasionally, I only go mainly for the DTI, however, I have travelled extensively through Japan.   The reason I travel around Japan is for two reasons,  first, to find sword shops,  Secondly, I enjoy Japan an love the tourist aspect.   My favourite sword shop is Wayy out of Tokyo.  Now for my point.  I have seen many swords for sale in Japan, with Green Papers.    I still believe, that unless one is just a cheque book collector,   one should do the research on the blade.  Does it match the school?    Does it match the work of the smith?   With todays internet,  one can just type in the smiths name and examples of the smiths work will be there to compare, as well a signatures.

[kodachi]

Dear Prof. Arnold,

 

thanks for your post. Do you have an idea where I can find the Nanka Token Kai, vol. 5, nr. 1 (Januar 1986)?

I would be interested in the nakago shown there - especially those concerning "Muramasa".

Best

[Gakusee]

Kodachi Europe (anonymous?)

 

Unfortunately prof. Arnold passed away last year. He was a prolific contributor to the board. 
 

When you play the game with Muramasa and green papers, you play with fire. Much more likely to be gimei or another attribution today than not. So, if you see a green papered Muramasa today, this is red alert, unless you really, really know your stuff.

I fact I would guess that in more than in 90 % of only green papered Muramasa with only that paper something would be off.
 

Something tells me you are not ready to play with fire yet. 

[kodachi]

Dear all,

 

I am sorry, I didn't expect that a discussion is started from an collector passed away

My question about the nakago and the article was just a informational one, nothing else

Best

[kodachi]

But I have only now realized that Prof. Arnold has already written this in 2018 - I was misled by the fact that I was looking for the topic "Muramasa", and that the most recent link was ;(

Anyway, maybe someone can help me with my question about the article

Best