Rai Kunizane Katana Not Selling

[Shugyosha]

Gentlemen,

 

Never being one to shy away from an opportunity to demonstrate my ignorance, I'm wondering why this sword at Aoi Art isn't selling:

 

https://www.aoijapan.com/katanared-signature-rai-kunizane-honami-kaomistutada

 

It has been in their auction twice now and is currently back sitting on the shelf looking lonesome and waiting for that Mr Right to open his wallet.

 

I suspect that there is a deeper reason than my analysis is capable of revealing: the sword appears to be healthy, is unsigned but has a shumei done by Hon'ami Mitsutada attributing the blade to Rai Kunizane and this is backed up by Tokubetsu Hozon papers but, there is the telling remark "we think that this blade is comparable to NBTHK juyo blade"...which I take to mean "this blade won't receive juyo papers".

 

If I am correct, does anyone have any thoughts as to why not as it seems, at face value anyway, a pretty good candidate to me and it may be educational to indulge in a bit of speculation. Has the shumei attribution prejudiced its chances of progressing further perhaps or am I just overestimating the quality???

 

Any views gratefully received.

 

Kind regards,

John

[paulb]

John

I think your assumption is probably right. This has either been submitted and failed a Juyo Shinsa or there is strong reason for the current owner to believe it wouldn't. Certainly a fair question before spending that amount of money on a TH papered blade is has it been submitted for Juyo and if not why not.

So assuming it isn't a Juyo candidate what you have is an O-suriage blade attributed to second level Rai smith (don't misunderstand me I think he was good but not in the same league as Kunimitsu, Kunitoshi or Kuniyuki.) I have seen Rai Kunimitsu blades with Juyo papers selling for around 3.5million yen so at it's current price this Kunizane seems a little heavy. 

I don't think there is anything obviously wrong with it, quite the opposite it looks a good sword but the lack of interest is, I think, due more to an optimistic valuation than anything else.

[Okiiimo]

A price that a person is willing to pay is a singular summation of value that incorporates all the perceived tangible and intangible qualities of the object that is available for sale. That price varies from person to person as does their assessment of the items qualities. When something remains unsold after enough time has passed for potential purchasers to consider it, it becomes evidence that the asking price is above the populations assessment of its qualities. All of the above is stating the obvious.

 

The Aoi Art ad hints that the item did not pass Juyo and suggests a closed door to the potential for the blade to reach a higher level of certification. Speculation that an object possibly having greater potential value is, in my opinion, one of those intangible qualities that rate high on many buyers minds. In this case, the ad diminishes the speculative quality of the blade. Further, smith fame and blade quality aside, the asking price is in the range of Juyo blades. Personally, if I were to commit $20k+ USD on a Juyo-level sword, I'd want the Juyo certificate to go with it.

[b.hennick]

Darcy Brockbank has pointed out that the Juyo shinsa is a competition. You might not win the first or even the second time depending on the competition. One should not give up after the first attempt. 

[mywei]

Unless I'm missing some major flaw from the pictures this blade seems to be a perfectedly viable Juyo candidate, and seems to be priced accordingly.

[Okiiimo]

It's easy to say it's a Juyo candidate or to suggest that a person should resubmit the blade (until it attains higher papers in a less competitive shinsa) because that person has no skin in the game. Perhaps the asking price may leave too little reward for the risk that it will not go Juyo or perhaps there's a lot of other nice swords out there at that price point that have higher papers.

[Jussi Ekholm]

These are just some thoughts, I'm well above my league as usual as owning blades of this level might never be in my future. But speculation is always fun.

 

I think works of Rai Kunizane are rare. In Nihontō Kōza it is mentioned about Kunizane that only 2 of his works can be identified at 100% certainty (as in they are signed) and both are short blades. In Nihon Kotō Shi 1 tachi and 2 short blades are mentioned, along with Tokujū signed wakizashi (which I believe is seperate from those mentioned earlier). Maybe some more signed examples of his work have surfaced after these books were written but I don't have further knowledge about that. Also unfortunately I don't yet have the jūyō index so I cannot check about jūyō status of his attributed works.

 

Seems like the sword got Tokubetsu Hozon papers in 2014. It has been for sale now 2 times at Aoi and also has been for sale at Maruhide Tōken before: http://www.maruhidetouken.com/k-5.html

 

I think that swords in this price range need a certain buyer, a very serious collector who is not filthy rich. Why so? Because rich people can just walk to top dealers in Japan, US or Europe and get top notch swords with full service. The less wealthy serious collectors tend to usually be quite picky and do the research as well as they can. Because a sword like this can be the dream sword that will fulfill the collection. So I would think the collectors that fit the above profile especially in Japan, and around the world know reasonably well what is being sold by various sword shops. If you are looking for medium priced Rai swords (not the top smiths of the school), items like that will surely catch your radar. I think one important thing would be comparing prices of cheaper mumei jūyō examples of Rai school and see of this fares in comparison. How much rise in value could you expect (if any) IF this sword would pass the shinsa.

 

Taiseido had TH: http://www.taiseido.biz/cn11/cn22/pg548.html

Iida Koendo had TH: http://iidakoendo.com/514/

Sanmei, sayagaki to Kunizane - Hozon for Echizen Rai: http://sanmei.com/contents/media/I21966_W2771_PUP.html

 

I think the thought of owning Jūyō and getting the sword upgraded is tempting thought but I don't stress about that as it is so far away from my reach. However I think that there is nothing wrong with owning a good sword that will not make "to the next level". Yes the better papers are usually an upgrade as far as value goes and they add certain amount of prestige but in the end the sword itself remains the same. There are different levels of collecting and I am happy to stay at the "basic" level but I understand that many seek higher and more expensive stuff to their collections. Darcy wrote a good blog post about that: https://www.nihonto.ca/ha/?p=320#more-320I know that daimyō swords will be out of my league, so I will try to collect few good utilitarian swords that fulfill my collecting intrests.

 

Then there is always the fact that with c.2M yen budget there are so many possible options around the world. I lost the line of thought bit towards the end as it is getting so late in here.

[Vermithrax16]

Always appreciate your posts Jussi.

[seattle1]

Hello:

 Really interesting thread John! It seems like a nice sword indeed, however we should remember that nobody ever, except the man who did the initial suriage, really knew what mei it carried, if any. That unknown should call for a substantial negative value impact from the get go. I wonder whether just a designation of "Rai" might be a better aspirational thrust than to be so specific as the possibilities would stimulate quite a range of candidates.

 Second, there is the ambiguity of "...comparable to NBTHK Juyo..." That isn't as clear as the tout's "Put a hundred to Win on horse 7", as it just raises another degree of the unknown. I know many dealers can't resist stoking that imagination machine, but it has its risks and said too many times without good consequence, it can be credibility damaging.

 Arnold F.

[Shugyosha]

Thanks to everyone for the interesting replies and particular thanks to Jussi for the detailed analysis.

 

I had overlooked Paul's idea that the sword was simply overpriced: I see comparatively few mainline Rai blades on the market and had assumed that the rarity value alone would add a premium. The other Rai katana that I had seen available currently (both Kuniyuki, one at Seiyudo and one with Darcy - who I see now has a Kuninaga available) both require the buyer to ask for the price and so Aoi's price didn't seem beyond the pale.

 

That said, I agree with the observations that you can get a lot of sword at this price point and many are better swords than the Kunizane, though perhaps without the added rarity value.

 

As Jussi says, it would be interesting to see if Kunizane has ever had a sword go above TH. The Iidakoendo blade looks to me to be a very likely candidate given the exceptional length and, what looks like, tighter jigane.

 

Thanks once more to everyone and kind regards,

John

[PNSSHOGUN]

Ideal for hardened Rai collector, awkward for others.

 

Sounds like it will have to wait a couple of years for Juyo.

[Jean]

I have seen along the years several Rai Kunizane for sale, nne Juyo. One of my friend has one. Not very much impressed. There are a lot of level differencies in the TH kanteisho. Rai is embedded in late Kamakura. There is a great drop of value when coming into Nambokucho. Remember the first two (at most the third) generations concentrate the characteristics of a given school after ...