How Many Vintage Swords Still Exist?

[Vermithrax16]

I had this thought the other day and could not even make a guess. It's very interesting.

 

When you think of the fossil record, the work is based on what, 0.001% of all animals actually becoming fossils to be found later and studied.

 

I would think Japanese swords are orders of magnitude higher, but anyone want to guess how many swords made from say 1400-1850 are still with us? Fascinated by this question.

[seattle1]

Hello:

 In the 11th Kokusai Tosogu Kai catalog, in an article titled "Q & A on NIHONTO's HISTORICAL STRUCTURE and VALUE" 2015, Nick Nakamura offers the following:

 1. How many swordsmiths over the last 1.000 years in Japan? About 70,000.

 2. How many Nihonto were made during the last 1,000 years in Japan? About  30,000,000.

 3. How many exist in Japan now? About 3,000,000.

 4. How many are currently registered in Japan? About 2,500,000.

 5. How many Nihonto exit outside of Japan today? About 1,000,000.

 Considerable research is said to have gone into those estimates and the considerable text that follows.

 Arnold F.

[Vermithrax16]

Hello:

 In the 11th Kokusai Tosogu Kai catalog, in an article titled "Q & A on NIHONTO's HISTORICAL STRUCTURE and VALUE" 2015, Nick Nakamura offers the following:

 1. How many swordsmiths over the last 1.000 years in Japan? About 70,000.

 2. How many Nihonto were made during the last 1,000 years in Japan? About  30,000,000.

 3. How many exist in Japan now? About 3,000,000.

 4. How many are currently registered in Japan? About 2,500,000.

 5. How many Nihonto exit outside of Japan today? About 1,000,000.

 Considerable research is said to have gone into those estimates and the considerable text that follow.

 Arnold F.

Wow, great reference and post! Thank you!

 

Assumes most smith's made ~ 400 blades each.  So maybe 1/10th of all time still are with us. Way more than I would have thought, but not unreasonable.

[Mark S.]

What I am always fascinated by is how blades survived over the years, all they have been through, and what they have seen.

 

1) Use at the time it was made and in following years?

2) Daily carry or combat?

3) One or more sword collections/confiscations?

4) Traded back and forth, given as rewards?

5) Dropped on the battlefield and subsequently picked up for use?

6) Sat in a castle storeroom?

7) Shortened once or more times?

8.) Polished ? times?

9) Remounted for WW2?

10) Survived mass collection and destruction orders... or the GI who brought it home to slice the shrub hedge with it?

11) Survived the years since...

 

Combine one or more factors above (and any others you wish to add) and it is amazing these blades are here today. Just how does a blade several hundred years old survive to today?

 

Mark S.

[Brian]

About half a million unregistered swords in Japan.

[Guido]

About half a million unregistered swords in Japan.

 

Possession of a sword without the proper registration isn't only a misdemeanor, but a criminal offense, punishable by up to Yen 300,000 and / or up to three years imprisonment. I don't know any country where the citizens are more law-abiding than in Japan - you've been here, Brian, what do you think how plausible that number is?

 

The only source Nick Nakamura gives for arriving at all his approximations is "extensive research". If you ask nicely, I'll do some extensive research of my own, and will come up with even more spectecular numbers.  

 

Well, it's true, everybody says so, bigly!

[Brian]

Guido,
I would easily agree with you, however i do feel like there are probably several hundred thousand unregistered swords no matter what the penalties.
I saw a type 99 (rusted) machine gun under a table at a flea market in Japan. Saw quite a few unregistered swords in the back of vans at the Yasukuni market (yes..they were definitely unregistered based on conversations and actions of the sellers) and saw many unregistered yari. "No torokusho" was a common expression when I was wandering around the antique shops in out of the way places. Penalties may be severe, but people don't seem to feel it is a serious thing. NBTHK "find" a few years ago in their archives...how many? Thousands?
I also know that in most countries where stuff is banned, it is available freely to those who are in the know. In the case of swords, they are probably lying in family storage since the war..or hidden in houses. I think someone here on the NMB once gave a figure of how many swords are registered every few months in Japan from "finds" and not new swords.
Agree that giving any concrete figures would be impossible. But I am confident there are a lot. Pointless debate really, as neither side can prove their point.
 

[Guido]

"No torokusho" was a common expression when I was wandering around the antique shops in out of the way places.

 

Impressive. Having lived the better part of my adult live in Japan, this openness in regard to ignoring the law is nothing the Japanese ever let me into. Did they say it in English, btw?

[Jean]

To have an answer to this question is easy if the torokusho follows the sword along its life.

 

How many torokusho are issued each year since the law was issued? For people interested, subscribe to the Ginza Choshuya magazine. In the description of blades for sales, there is the date of issuance of the torokusho. At seeing some dates, an evil mind could suspect that all Japanese are not law-abiding. I wonder if Yakuza still use blades with Torokusho

[Guido]

Whenever a sword is imported (or re-imported) into Japan, it gets a new license - all of my swords have licenses from 2016, although I own them from before that year. There are also quite a few people who lose the license, so they get a new one.

 

Btw, many yari are below 15 cm, so they don't need a license.

[Guido]

I wonder if Yakuza still use blades with Torokusho

 

This used to be one of the technicalities the Japanese police used to arrest yakuza if they couldn't charge them with anything else. I guess they learned their lessons by now.

[Hoshi]

How costly is it to register a sword in Japan? I would surmise that if the cost exceeds the benefits (avoiding the putative fine and opening to a wider market) then they're unlikely to be registered. I saw some rust buckets Guntos in flea markets. Clearly unregistered.

 

Now for potentially valuable blades, I do believe a vast majority of them are registered for the purpose of liquidizing these assets. 

 

I presume the only "disincentive" for registering valuable blades would be the rankings that prevent it from being exported (Bunka and Biju, not Kokuho). How do prices compare between Tokuju and Bunka/Biju? I would assume Tokuju to be worth more, due to having more potential customers and hedging against Japanese economy turmoil. 

[Guido]

How costly is it to register a sword in Japan? 

 

Yen 6,300 = US$ 57.-

[seattle1]

Hello:

 My post yesterday evening was a quick reply to a straight forward question about total historical output and residual numbers. The information provide was taken from a 14 page article within the KTK catalog as prepared by Nick Nakamura. It is my understanding that he used several research assistants in its preparation and there is considerably more information to be found in the piece, which is a useful read in its entirety. The numbers game will always be based on incomplete information and is open to alternative assumptions at the start. My first encounter with an estimate was in John Yumoto's, The Samurai Sword: A Handbook (1958). Other intervening estimates can also be found, but Nakamura's is one of the more complete and interesting that you will find.

 Arnold F.

[Okiiimo]

I can't speak to the greater tabulated numbers but can offer a single example of the Japanese perception of sword laws and a single example of non-registered blades. Sometimes I think people over generalize Japanese culture. My Japanese uncle inherited the my grandfathers household. When I visited back in 2000, I have asked to see my grandfathers sword which where long rumored to exist. They were hidden away deep in a closet under a stack of futons. He was terrified of them and under the impression they were outright illegal to own. He said he wanted to donate them to a museum but I think he's too afraid of even take them out of the house. My point is, not all Japanese are fully aware of the sword laws, they do knowingly break them (more out of fear of public perception) and my extended family has two swords that are hidden away outside of registration.

[Brian]

Guido, I think it is exactly the fact that I don't speak Japanese that they were open about telling me they were unregistered. No risk telling a tourist. Especially one who is obviously out of his depth and knows enough to say that he is a gun dealer back home in South Africa.
Many times I was offered yari poles, without blades. And on asking where the blades were, they said "no torokusho" and on being persistent, was often shown the blade separately. Yes...over the 15cm limit. It happens.

[Ken-Hawaii]

Without going into details, Guido, I have also seen quite a few unregistered blades through my extended Japanese family.

 

Ken

 

[Baka Gaijin]

One for Guido.,

 

Recently at a Fair in the U.K., I was shown a blade which still had its Torokusho with it, and thus illegally exported from Japan.

 

(The dealer thought it was a certificate of excellence!)

 

Is there no totting up of numbers of blades registered against blades re - registered ? 

[Ray Singer]

What I was told by a collector in Japan was that sometimes families would have the swords in their possession cut into sections to avoid the consequences of being found with an unlicensed sword. I was skeptical, until he pulled out small collection of nakago which included several koto nakago and a signed and dated Sadakazu that looked very good to my eyes. Still not sure what the full story is there. 

 

 

Many times I was offered yari poles, without blades. And on asking where the blades were, they said "no torokusho" and on being persistent, was often shown the blade separately. Yes...over the 15cm limit. It happens.

[Vermithrax16]

Great discussion. I meant it mostly as a thought experiment but some great posts here.

[Vermithrax16]

What I was told by a collector in Japan was that sometimes families would have the swords in their possession cut into sections to avoid the consequences of being found with an unlicensed sword. I was skeptical, until he pulled out small collection of nakago which included several koto nakago and a signed and dated Sadakazu that looked very good to my eyes. Still not sure what the full story is there. 

That's horrifying!

[Ray Singer]

The stuff of nightmares.

[Brian]

Saw quite a few of those myself too....swords cut off above the nakago...selling in the koshirae. People finding swords, not realizing you can apply to license them, and cutting them in half.
One antiques shop in Osaka had a decent number

[Greg F]

Really interesting topic Jeremiah, thank you. Stuff of nightmares is right Ray. When I got my 1sr Nihonto i had no idea there were so many swords world wide! Cheers.

 

Greg

[Curran]

Without going into details, Guido, I have also seen quite a few unregistered blades through my extended Japanese family.

 

Ken

 

Would agree with Ken. Outside of Tokyo, in places along the train route between south of Nagoya, I've seen quite a few out of the attic and from under the staircase- thanks to my host family. Nothing over 70cm.

 

Guido:   Perhaps one of my slightly perverse favorite memories of Tokyo was being stopped by detectives in Azabu-Juban with my Korean girlfriend and being investigated for the homicide of a gentleman shot in a hotel there. The kenji line of interrogation was as close to Inspector Clousseau as I will ever see. I hadn't been in the country at the time of the murder days before, and the conversation quickly turned on them with

my questions about where it happened and what type of gun was used. "Round up the foreigners in the area" was so classically cliche that I enjoyed prolonging the conversation with them, and I could feel their embarrassment rise.

 

But yes- within an hour trainride of Nagoya, I've seen a fair number of blades with the 'don't tell anyone' factor.

[Vermithrax16]

The only thing I would add here, and up front total neophyte, an aspect of my post was meant to direct towards the "known" of what swords are still alive and well. But what about all we do not?

 

20 years a molecular biologist and now fascinated by these questions.

[Hoshi]

It is because they are afraid of the law? Or because they fear that their sword will be one day confiscated if they are registered? 

[seattle1]

Hello:

 Terrific story Curran, shades of Casablanca too.

 Arnold F.

[Stephen]

Curran think thats going to have to be in a movie, Short takes on Nihonto!! fly on the wall i wish i had been...lol 

[Darcy]

Hello:

 In the 11th Kokusai Tosogu Kai catalog, in an article titled "Q & A on NIHONTO's HISTORICAL STRUCTURE and VALUE" 2015, Nick Nakamura offers the following:

 1. How many swordsmiths over the last 1.000 years in Japan? About 70,000.

 2. How many Nihonto were made during the last 1,000 years in Japan? About  30,000,000.

 3. How many exist in Japan now? About 3,000,000.

 4. How many are currently registered in Japan? About 2,500,000.

 5. How many Nihonto exit outside of Japan today? About 1,000,000.

 Considerable research is said to have gone into those estimates and the considerable text that follows.

 Arnold F.

 

 

I can add to this that I think there are around 250,000 Hozon and Tokubetsu Hozon items from envelope calculations and reverse engineering serial numbers. May or may not be accurate. 

 

The rest I counted.

 

There are about 13,000 Juyo items. 

 

About 1000 Tokuju items, 900 or so which are swords.

 

About 1000 Jubi items. 

 

About 900 Jubun items.

 

Just over 100 Kokuho items.