General Development Collecting Nihonto/tosogu

[BIG]

In some discussions we come to this premise:

 

The number of restrictions for the sword collector and dealer will rise. So the future trends will see less

nihonto collectors/dealers and more tosogu guys.

Shipping a tsuba one dealer said, is put it in your poket, and check in the plane. No problems...

Secondly " it is said, Nihonto from Koto to Shinshinto is a loosing game ". Trend coming soon is the gendaito and later sword, opinions...

 

Best Regards

[b.hennick]

I bet that the dealer has a lot of gendaito. ????

[rkg]

Peter,

 

As always with art, you should buy what you like as there is no guarantee on what the next buyer will be willing to pay for it - that said...

 

FWIW, I actually think we are seeing a "bear market" in both, and would posit its a secular trend for both tosogu and swords.

 

Weapons in general are becoming increasingly politically incorrect everywhere, and its not just the swords.  For example, in my home state it will be illegal in a few months to buy or sell koshirae/tosogu with rayskin/sharkskin, etc on them unless they have some nebulous certificate that the item an antique ( and just to make it more fun, the law as near as I can tell doesn't specify where or how to get these/fund a governmental organ to generate them, etc but I digress).  Oh, and by the way, you can only do that if the total amount of material is less than couple of hundred grams - so much for ever owning one of those whizzy same covered koshirae   I get wanting to save what few dangerous or delicious animals are left, and if they wanted to be ethically consistent they should either exempt all the old stuff, or send -everything- through the "you can't sell it anymore unless you deface it" grinder,  but I digress again....

 

On top of that, its not clear to me that there are a whole lot of new collectors of either (though I am surprised how many people look at the images I post to the kodogu no sekai facebook  page).  Particularly for swords.  Not a whole lot of millennials out there that can cough up the $5-10K US that even low end decent pieces cost, and God help you if you've got an itch for anything that the books call "good"...  And women in general don't like weapons, so swords (and to a lesser extent tosogu) don't have much appeal to the "power couple collector" crowd who seem to snap up anything that's exclusive and expensive that have been driving up prices in so many other art/antiques.

 

And also with swords, generally "the best" work of any era can be interesting, and it just so happened that a lot of gendai work was underpriced for a while - I'm not so sure it still is, but..  I don't buy and sell many swords anymore (got tired of losing money), but it seems like the market for the "good stuff" is a mess - it appears that anything that isn't a "good luck finding one of those" items is cheeper now than it used to be.  And you can find many threads on the Japanese market, the Juyo fiasco, etc.

 

While tosogu are much easier to deal with (as you have pointed out, though good luck with trying to get a kozuka/kogai onto an airplane and issues with moving -anything- around worth more than $2500 across borders for a number of reasons), the prices fluctuate a lot, with the trend being down overall I think - and they seem to suffer from real "fashion" problems (things get "hot" and then later "not")  and therefore the prices can fluctuate  (ask any poor sod who paid thousands for run of the mill Kaneyama or akasaka piece back in the day that you can now buy all day for a few hundred bucks - and don't get me started on menuki...).

 

Again, unless you -want- to deal and keep track of/profit from all these little fleeting trends, you would probably be best buying what you love and writing the cost off like a weekend in Vegas...

 

my .02...

 

Best,

rkg

(Richard George)

[nagamaki - Franco]

  Hello Peter,

 

Then, it would seem that there should be even a greater emphasis on refining one's collection regardless of whether it be nihonto or tosogu, or a combination thereof. Which is what the student/collector should have been doing all along.

[Ron STL]

Oh what fond memories, to reminisce about those "early days" of struggling to find information on swords/tosogu (pre-internet) and getting so very excited about learning your new find has some good qualities! It seems like nobody wants to get excited about the age and history behind these things we collect. Once you're deceased (a.k.a. dead) and your kids peddle off your collections for less than you paid for it, not a darned think you can do about it from "up there," or "down yonder." Just enjoy what you have and enjoy it when something wonderful finds it way into your hands. Think preservation. Rambling...but that happens a lot these days. RonSTL

[SwordGuyJoe]

I hope you're right Peter! It would be nice to see the gendaito market rebound, but I'm not so sure the day hasn't come and gone for the "average" gendaito. Used to be that a Nagamitsu would fly off the shelf at $3K, but now, good luck getting $2K for it. In my mind, it seems that shingunto Showato was popular about ten years ago, then people who liked the war era shifted away from that and to gendaito. That lasted for a while and they lost interest and now it's all about rare NCO's and you're seeing what seems to be bonkers prices for those things, while you can't sell a gendaito Tanto to save your life.

 

I'm more apt to believe that the gendaito markets fluctuate like all others, where the truly exceptional quality material will hold their value +/- 10%, middle of the road stuff +/- 25-50%, and the lower range flapping wildly in the wind with +/- 100%. It's like stocks. If you can pick the right low priced stock at the right time, you can make a bundle! Conversely, you can lose your shorts if you pick wrong. That's why I'll never be a real dealer and I'll likely lose money when selling time comes, since I struggle to disassociate myself from the "art" and fail at treating swords as a commodity and not caring about them. I guess that's why I value the experience in owning them... at least that's what I tell myself when it comes time to do the math on purchase vs. sales price...

[seattle1]

Hello:

 I am not so sure that transportation rigidities are a cause of softening prices for swords, but I am somewhat sure that the bubble tosogu is going through is a classic correction as increased sophistication by collectors, driven by easy access to excellent new literature on the subject, has begun the process of sifting the wheat from the chaff. A casual examination of the relative price (value) changes, one collecting area to another, over the length of some years has shown again and again that some commodity items rise in value as a group compared to others. In the so called fine art market for example, modern art has continued to appreciate as a group, while the Old Masters have declined in relative price. That is natural market activity as prices, tastes and incomes fluctuate as they do. Get your Rembrandt at a discount.

 I suspect that a more serious threat to all material collecting groups is that young people coming along are less and less interested in tangibles. They live in an electronic world of, for them anyway, exciting social connection and the latest electronic gadget. Why wouldn't the sword and tosogu markets get sideswiped in that ground swell process? As almost any state game management department will attest to for example, young people coming up are not as keen to hunt anymore, as the deer, bear and moose roaming through small town streets around America suggest. I am told that no longer is the big thrill of hitting 16 capped with going to a test to get your driver's license. We don't see kids roaming around their neighborhoods on foot anymore. I have lived in my current house for ten years and it is part of a suburban development, the house being surrounded on two sides with a wood, and never have I seem neighborhood kids "exploring" such places. What are they doing? Well there are home staring at their screens. Their reality is virtual. Those are only examples of the real determinants we could not have imaged 25 or 30 years ago.

 As for those of us who still collect, as Brian observed in another thread, the lower dollar return on owning the stuff we do, in comparison to financial assets of the same risk, is the rent paid for their enjoyment. If rents are falling that is a rationale for "moving up" not "moving down" as a collector.

 Arnold F.

[SwordGuyJoe]

Well said Arnold!

[vajo]

I'm in contact with a collector who is near the 80s in germany. He collects from the end of 60s and none of his childs or grandchilds are interested in that collection. They don't like it. He said to me in the 70s and 80s there where a lot of nihonto traders in the big cities in germany. Today he think there are only 60 collectors in germany who are active. A lot of his old friends are died.

But he think that this kind of art will come back. Maybe it needs only a good movie (e.g. about a smith and his story) and the interest is back.

High class tosogu and swords will be pieces for the rich. 

[IanB]

As one who lived through the era when long swords (always 'executioner's swords') were about 30/- (just over 1$ today) and short swords at 1£ (always 'harakiri knives'). At arms fairs they were generally piled up under masses of bayonets and you were looked at as being demented for showing an interest. Then the price started to climb when the first books in English such as Robinson's 'Arts of the Japanese Sword' and Yumoto's book on swords appeared. At that point you could have sold empty Japanese match boxes! As soon as swords started being imported from Japan they reached dizzying prices in the major sale rooms who, 15 years earlier, would not have sullied their catalogues with such 'rubbish'. One leading auctioneer in London described armours as 'a beribboned mess' and it was sold by the tea chest. Now the prices are spoke off in  hushed whispers and if you have to ask the price, you cannot afford it. There is one factor that nobody has mentioned  and that is the effect of the trade dealers. Quite often new items to the market get knocked down at auctions or enter the trade at bearable prices. It then changes hands within the trade, each dealer adding their profits until the price becomes too high for someone not in the trade to buy. And here I am not knocking the dealers, they have living to make, but it is small wonder that the young, setting up a home and having kids, are not collecting - basically the prices have just risen too high. They were high for me at 30/- but I could afford to acquire things by saving. Imagine having to save $5000 to buy something that isn't essential to your household - its a big ask.

Ian Bottomley 

[Jean]

Ian,

 

Unfortunately you are right. Nowadays, there are a lot of more interesting things worth spending one's money: electronic devices for one. In fact consumerism is killing collecting. We are a disappearing lot. We belong to Museum as paintings do...

[rkg]

Arnold makes a good point about considering the losses (or lack of return) as a rent to enjoy/study the items.  I know people that are tortured when they look at their current collection - they have items that they paid a LOT more back in the day (for a number of reasons - the bear market in swords/fittings, paying too much in the first place for any one of a number of reasons (lack of knowledge, misplaced trust, fraud, being "Duveened", etc)), and they therefore find it almost impossible for them to sell the pieces they'd like to deaccession at the current market price and move on.  Hard to watch sometimes.

 

rkg

(Richard George)

[IJASWORDS]

Collecting swords (NIHONTO or GENDAI), is like having kids. If you worked out how much financial impact kids have on your bank balance, you wouldn't have any!! Swords/Kids, you have them because you love them!

[Pete Klein]

Swords and Kids:  Perhaps sometimes the excitement of acquisition is betrayed by the realities of ownership...

[christianmalterre]

or just a dream....?

Laugh!

 

i do not think so negative...

 

- the best way still...is to collect what you like ...

no collecting without passion!

no passion without collecting!

 

sense?  ( in a fiscal view) ????

 

VERY certainly non at all! ...least i do not care about. (i do keep, buy, collect me- what i can afford me. ) Point!

 

(earning money-real money!-is a completely other battlefield!)

 

very simple.

 

Christian

[seattle1]

Hello:

 Christian, if you read all the posts I think you will agree that the bias is toward the continued enthusiasm for collecting what one likes and enjoying the product of a carefully selected and well cared for collection. The activity is carried on by "sword lovers" after all, and of course, as they say, "love is blind".

 Arnold F.

[Alan F]

Parsley, sage, cheap tsuba, and gendaito.

Koto swords were a true love of mine.

 

Sung to the tune of Simon and Garfunkel's Scarborough Fair (1966).

 

Good Koto swords are part of the history of Japan. A "losing game"?

 

 

Alan

[Jussi Ekholm]

Unfortunately not too many young sword collectors are wanting to collect authentic Japanese swords. I guess money is somewhat an issue but I think people often just don't have enough interest. I've been on various sword forums most of my life and very few people make the jump from Chinese made production swords to Authentic Japanese swords. I've been trying to "recruit" people a bit for some years but I've kinda given up on that. If someone has genuine interest they will start figuring things out on their own and contact people. You can't force it.

 

The first step to collecting is quite big at the moment, too big for many to take.

 

I think collecting swords is bit crazy hobby in modern world and it takes special kind of crazy to collect Japanese swords...

[Jean]

My wife and myself love English/French mahogany furniture from the 19th century. You can buy them now for almost nothing. We recently purchase a splendid 19th century mahogany buffet for 200€. Youngsters prefer buying a ckd one at 400€ from Ikea... however you will pay $$$ if you want to buy chairs from the 70's...

[Peter Bleed]

This has been an interesting thread. It is indeed fun to think about why and how we collect. Given the expert insights that have been presented, I enter this discussion with some hesitation, but...

As others have expressed, it truly seems like sword collecting is less popular than it was - say - 35 years ago. There are lots of reasons for this decline - less stuff to be discovered, rising prices, competitive diversions, etc. etc. Let me suggest another reason.

Sword collecting isn't as much FUN as it used to be.

In the Valhallic days of yore, a regular guy could find stuff to look at, could afford it, and with a few books could learn about it. Regular guys with a little brass hammer and a couple of rather easily obtained "rare books" could "identify" swords. This would involve spending some time "reading" signatures and then deciding if they were "good."  Those activities took some time. They often involved interacting with other collectors - face-to-face. Expertise was at a VERY low level. The kantei practiced in the old days was naive ("I think it's koto, maybe Bizen") but it was sincere and reasonable, and based on personal inspections and judgement. It was an achievement

Contrast  that with today

In the rationalized modern market, easily assessed worthy blades are not common. Furthermore, basic information is widely available. so collectors are rarely presented with totally unsolved challenges. The gun slick with a sword for sale can often tell you what the signature says. And if a collector IS confronted with an identification challenge, the OLD fun it getting the books out, scratching the head, checking alternatives, and finally coming to something a personally  achieved DECISION, is replaced by appeal to an old guy who is "expert" or to posing an image on the NMB and getting an answer back in minutes.

WHERE IS THE JOY?

Furthermore, modern sword collecting has become so well organized that individual collectors no longer get to freely decide with is worth having. The categories  have become very closely refined - so that it takes a real expert to appreciate them. Furthermore, we are now confronted with VERY refined standards of quality. Beyond being told very specifically what our swords are, we can now  find out how GOOD they are. In this context, the joys of discovering,  assessing, and preserving are being replaced by the disappointment of learning that a sword won't go beyond Tokubestsu Hozon.

Don't you hate it when that happens?

Peter

[md02geist]

I think being upset that your sword won't go past TH is silly lol.

 

Also can't see why the oldest swords would begin to take a backseat to some of the youngest swords. 

 

OFC I'm still fairly new here so maybe that's just me.

[seattle1]

Hello:

 Excellent and thought provoking post Peter, reinforced by having lived through it!

 Arnold F.

[smicha6551]

Stamps, coins, guns, motorcycles...all have bought pleasure and I've never made anything (financially) from any of them. Why should swords be different? Sword collecting isn't cheap but if you don't insist on the most expensive swords its no worse than high end cameras or nicer guns, and between my bike, protective gear, insurance and personal property tax I've spent Juyo money on motorcycling. Can't take any of it with me.

[Henry Wilson]

Why don't we all agree to price any items for sale at 5 % below what we paid for them? In that way, slowly but surely, prices will come down...

[Alan F]

Now that's just silly! Almost as silly as my previous post. Perhaps it was meant to be tongue in cheek.

 

What if someone buys a sword and sends it in for polish? Then he submits it to shinsa and it passes to a higher level. Expenses are incurred. Should he then sell it for 5% less than he originally paid for it?

The market ultimately determines what a piece is worth. It is the same in the art world. The market goes up and down, and some artists pieces become more or less desirable as their relative desirability and the trends dictate. Quality of the piece and the reputation of the artist also come into consideration. If you are treading around at a gun show looking for a bargain price, then you will not likely come home with anything very special. Are you a true collector, or just looking to accumulate average items with a view to trade them off after a short while? Perhaps for a loss, which may be necessitated by their relative undesirability and commonness.

 

Regarding Peter Bleed's lamentation about a sword that won't go beyond T. Hozon: They can't all pass to Juyo, even if they are good candidates. If all swords that were worthy passed to Juyo, then there would be no sense of accomplishment and no real reward. Of course it is a game and is subject to the whims of the shinsa panel, but hey have to be selective and subjective. Even if it is a T. Hozon Norishige, it is not guaranteed that it will pass on the first try. That's what you are up against when you submit a sword for Juyo shinsa. Sure it's disappointing, but you have to realize that the competition is really good.

 

Alan

[Henry Wilson]

Alan wrote: "Now that's just silly! Almost as silly as my previous post. Perhaps it was meant to be tongue in cheek."

 

Silly is what silly does. Half tongue in check because I knew there would be heat but...

 

Alan wrote: "What if someone buys a sword and sends it in for polish? Then he submits it to shinsa and it passes to a higher level. Expenses are incurred. Should he then sell it for 5% less than he originally paid for it?"

 

Yes, why not?  Especially if you are not a dealer.  It is what I do.  I rarely sell for what I pay and never (to my memory) sold above what I paid.  I just can't do it.  I feel embarrassed.  I am sure most of us hobbyists could live with a slight reduction in return.  Call it rental fees and respect for the item in question to make the hobby less cut throat.

 

I remember I bought something from a respected collector.  In a general summary to conceal IDs she basically said that she does not believe in ripping off people like me so she will sell for what she paid.  However, she said she will charge a slight fee to soften the load of not having access to the money that was tied up in the item I eventually bought.  I found that quite distasteful.  Is it an investment or an appreciation of art?

 

Alan wrote "The market ultimately determines what a piece is worth. It is the same in the art world. The market goes up and down, and some artists pieces become more or less desirable as their relative desirability and the trends dictate. Quality of the piece and the reputation of the artist also come into consideration."

 

In my opinion, what people are willing to pay determines worth.  But I guess that is not the point, eh?

 

Alan wrote "Are you a true collector"

 

I think I am.  I try not to turn a few financial tricks.  I don't need to or want to.  I find it very crass.

[Guest Rayhan]

Hi all, I am new to the NMB and this is my first post. 

 

This thread reads like what the samurai would have felt during the Meiji era 

 

I wouldn't say I am a young collector, I am in my 30's but started when I was 20 and got into Nihonto because they genuinely fascinated me. We all need a start though, my first sword is a Koa Isshin Mantetsu and it was a project purchase, bent and rusted I took the painstaking steps to restoring it and never looked back from there. If anyone is going to be worried about the lack of collectors in the future I say we only have ourselves to blame. I think more needs to be done in the way of educating the future collectors and the relevant authorities that perhaps have a say on what is being shipped where and how. If the Japanese hadn't been able to convince the allied forces in WW2 that the sword is worthy of preserving then we would be facing a dire collectors market, let alone a diminishing one. How do we educate the future collector? I have never met someone who wouldn't be interested in the Japanese Sword from a long term interest or brief encounter they always have so many questions and many of the friends I have from University have become collectors after we got to talking and they had the chance to see real swords in the flesh (so to speak). We should start there, make time to explain these facts and wonders of mythical steel to the budding student hungry to learn anything and everything. But who has time for that right? So tap on technology to get them into it, yes we have a tendency to be the avid keyboard warrior but that doesn't mean we do not have an appreciation for history. Imagine if more people wrote on swords like Paul Martin, Victor Harris, Darcy Brockbank, etc. These experts put a beautiful story behind each swords era and provenance rather than writing in context targeting already seasoned collectors, why don't we see more of that?

 

There is no shortage of great swords to be discovered and even available at good prices but the search is a physically demanding one and if we have more access to collectable items that were project based then the seeds of curiosity would take over automatically. But today we see paper this and it's not worth that, who are we to say what is and is not worth to an individual? It is our duty to nurture their interest and then guide them until they have the confidence to go at it alone. This was how I started, Greg Irvine was my inspirational meeting! Lack or collectors, I say lack of mentors. 

 

let us look at fine watch collecting. perhaps one of the worst investments is a Swiss watch, unless tapping on a Rolex or Patek the rest are very much hit and miss or you need to keep them for generations before realising their original value again. The reason for their success, they are touted as aspirational items, and so we should be doing the same with Japanese art swords and the Japanese martial arts as a gateway. But, who has time for that right? The issue with collectors is that it is easy to get self involved in our own collections and aspire to have something great for ourselves and no one else, quite a self involved bunch aren't we  ? If we make them aspire to collecting then they will like any art or luxury item. 

 

Pricing, prices should be high and less stories of people buying what they couldn't afford and then selling it for a loss should be told. fact is we teach someone how to invest in this subject they will succeed in establishing a potentially valuable investment, be it one or many. Questions and advice on not only how to recognise a good sword but how to build provenance, investability, creating value, long term market values, why auctions have pitfalls and access to better streams for sales and acquisitions. We have a forum for people to post pictures and get opinions but no physical board that meets collectors and puts a face from newbie to expert and build a feeling of belonging or comradery. Tell that to the Swiss watch federation that has 55 events a year on individuals that spend far less than we do on Juyo. Where is our initiative? Less than 10 events globally? And all to sell, sell, sell.

 

Educational mediums, I have been coming to NHB forever and this is my first post, why, confidence I guess, god forbid I say something that embrasses me, but today i'm standing up for the "younger collector". Why do we not see any more video based documentaries on swords and sword collecting? As far as I can see Paul Martin and Pablo Kuntz are the only ones pushing out videos in English anymore and that's through Social media, any other experts feel like weighing in there please? But who has time for that right? It means so much more when someone in their 20's sees educational video based material on a subject like Nihonto, what is the Fukuoka Ichimonji school, why are they so coveted today, etc, etc, kids today don't read but making video based material is cheaper than before too.

 

Papers, do not discount papers. Any art needs its certification, but to say people get upset about not achieving Juyo....well if we all had Juyo then the price would be considerably lower and what would be the aspirational value of finding an investable piece? There needs to be more insight into why Juyo is so grand (let alone Tokuju), it should be more evident that swordsmiths were men hand making items of lore and legend, and anything man made has varying levels of quality, not all Masamune are Saijo Saku even if he is positioned so, fact. This is important for people to realise and for values to be retained. That however, is a matter to bring up with the NBTHK who unfortunately are also human and have good and bad days, we try to submit on a good day 

 

In short, the young do love Japanese swords and aspire to collecting them if they understand them, if they believe the legends behind them and if they finally one day understand their value as art. It is up to us to help that progression and educate the ecosystem to benefit the future collector, the sword has been valued in many nations for 1000's of years and I have no doubt that they will continue for many more, it's just a matter of more provenance. 

 

Rayhan Perera

[BIG]

Regards to the young ones. Rayhan welcome to the NMB. Not bad for the first post.

 

Best Regards

[David Flynn]

My belief, is that of the cost of polishing is driving the price down (esp Gendai).  The observation by Joe on the discrepancy of the cost of Gendaito  from yesteryear to today is spot on.  Allow me to give an example.  A Munetoshi gendaIto in good General condition, would go for 3-3.5k.  Now the same sword would be lucky to pull 2.5.  Now lets take the sword at 2.5k add the cost of polish, shirasaya and papers. One is now looking at about 4k.  Add that to the 2.5, you now have a sword that has cost you 6.5k.   Who would by a polished Munetoshi for 6.5k?  Not many when it's actual worth, would be more like 5k.  And so my friends, there is the rub.

[IJASWORDS]

Rayhan, interesting post with your watch comparisons. I collect watches and Japanese swords (GUNTO, GENDAI). I just sold a PATEK (CALATRAVA 5196J) for 40% more than what I paid for it ten years ago, WHY, to buy a YASUKUNI-TO, which I am sure will appreciate at least as much. ANY THING where demand outstrips supply will be sold at a premium price and appreciate.

ROLEX/PATEK are aspirational, in high demand, but hold there value due to scarcity. Last time I looked, they are not making too many KOTO blades, so as demand increases for the scarce resource so does price.

You could buy 50 SWATCHES for the price of a ROLEX, or 10 TAGS, which will give you the best return in 10 years? The answer is simple, buy the best you can afford that is already collectable and in demand.

BUT refer back to an earlier post of mine, if fat old guys with a bit of spending money want some thing, they will pay over the odds for it, just to have it, to keep, and not as an investment.

Morale of the story, one good collectable specimen is always better than ten run-of-the-mill swords.