Nihonto Market Trends

[Marius]

Gents,

 

I wonder what your experience and feelings are regarding the nihonto market in the past and future. This affects all of us collectors who will want to realize the value of their stuff at some point. 

 

I would divide the market into four segments (my criteria are admittedly arbitrary)

 

low-end: 

up to $3,000

 

mid-range: 

$3,000 - $10,000

 

upper range:

$10,000-$50,000

 

top range:

from $50,000 upward

 

What would you say has the market done in each of those segments in the last 5-10 years and where do you see it going in the next 5 years? I would appreciate the input of those who deal in swords, in their respective segments.

 

I am thinking of making a regular survey regarding this, but perhaps for the time being this simple post will be sufficient?

 

Thanks for your input

[christianmalterre]

???

Honest question?

 

Christian

[Marius]

My questions are never honest. They serve very dark purposes

[christianmalterre]

i do know you are my brother in law!

 !

a Sith never looks back! ( Palpatine) LOLOLOL!

 

He?

 

what is up to you???

 

let us buy!

no time for play!-"Coward!"-

 

Christian

[Kronos]

I don't deal in swords but I see a lot of divides so for example between Japan and the rest of the world where the Japanese market is staying resilient at all levels and also there's a big divide between those that trade in nihonto while not specializing such as auction houses.and Nihonto dealers which has always been there as far as I can tell. I can see it continuing for the next 5 years where the western market deteriorates and maybe people will start selling back to Japan more. This is at the mid end anyway, the high end will always stay as it is.

 

The biggest change I've noticed is where people in the west, particularly new buyers aren't willing or aren't able to pay $4000 for an ubu zaimei papered shinto katana so for example in the for sale section here this type of thing is going unsold or the sellers are drastically reducing their prices to get a sale. They seem to want that for less but are resorting to buying the cheaper stuff so maybe this is the economic factor.

 

Overall I think in recent years everyone wants to feel like they got a bargain but it may be ending up that instead they're only bargains in their own head (I know I'm guilty of this) which is boosting the low end of the market at the expense of the middle.

 

Edit: part of why the Japanese market has the appearance of strength may be the power of the yen at the moment. I would be interested to know what dealers think about this  they and may they need to replenish their stock from Japan?

[Stephen]

For some of us, our station in life, is not now or ever  will  be above low end of your chart, sad but true. oh we dream of higher ground but the nihonto gods just smile down us with that grin "you serve your purpose"   

[Rich S]

For me the low end is about $300, not $3000. I remember (I is an old geezer) when I could buy a mint gendai Nagamitsu or Emura for $300 or under. I have one in your mid range that I got quite by accident, just turned out to be a great blade after polish. Ah, the good old days - I wasn't good and I wasn't old. I never expect to make $$$ on any of my swords, fittings, knives, etc. I collect just because I enjoy it and maybe I'm just a compulsive disorder type collector :-) 

 

Rich

[vajo]

What is low end and what is high end? Who makes the price? The buyer makes the price. If i want a price no one is willing to pay i can built some aircastles but i never sold anything. 

 

 

It's like which god is better?

 

[Brian]

I think the market will always be good for entry level (under $1000) and possibly $2000 swords....and I think there will always be a decent and healthy market for top of the range swords.
It is the middle level that is going to suffer and have difficulty finding buyers. As we see now.

[drbvac]

Well = maybe some of the better middle level blades will see depressed prices and that is a good thing because as with all things in demand that there are not a lot of = at some point in time = they will go up and end up being high end

 

There are some beautiful swords= papered and in great mounts for 5-10G right now and considering the cost of getting the papers = pretty good deal and not the risk of an unpapered low level sword

[Gunome]

Hello,

 

I do not expect top quality and low quality items decrease, but medium range has decrease and could continue in that trend

 

However, it also depend of economical and political environment. I understand that president elected Trump would like to re-establish border barriers and set up tax to imports.

If so and if nihonto would be concerned, that would make imports from Japan more expensive and influence the market trend on both US and Japan. Of course, also depending of the exchange rate Yen-dollars.

 

 

[Darcy]

Note...typos. On the iPad and fly in a few hours and can't fix them all....

 

...

 

I don't see high end as $10k ... and top end is not $50k.

 

There are guys who only collect Tokuju and are always in a $100k plus mode. There are guys who only collect ubu koto blades. In Japan some are pursuing jubi and jubun and if you want to sell to them they want your blade to sit well with these or kokuho. Even some people when I was selling the mitsutada were saying well I want one that is signed and flamboyant -- if this existed it would need to be in a new level above kokuho.

 

Part of the problem is that collectors live on islands and on these islands is a echo chamber where they get their thoughts reflected back to them like 10k is a high end sword. I have had in my hands a Masamune worth $800k now in the Mori museum, a Hisakuni worth $1M, three others worth well more than $1M. Some others that may be priceless. This is the pinnacle of collecting. High end is below that but not at 10 percent of that.

 

When you get into swords where the sword is less than the value of the restoration and papers etc you are in the low end of the market and that by definition includes $10k swords. Low end of the market is not "what is expensive to me" but is the bottom part of the overall economy. So the top two tiers, the guys regularly buying six figure blades and those handful of gods getting the best and the true Meito need to fit in. There are more islands out past the horizon.

 

I have said before that in these fields the safe places are with elite things as rare and special never go out of style and in the bottom as there is no downside and always will there be guys who's love reaches deep and their pockets are shallow. Danger is when people think they are guys rare high grade items at 10k and they are firmly in the commodity band with untold amounts of supply out there. Supply being poured into the market as fast as possible by certain agents will destroy the value of what you have. Especially when people focus on value (bang for the buck) instead of focusing on how important or unique something is (collectibility). Value focus is what gets you burned because the firehose does not stop and every day there are 10 more for your "but it was a good deal" purchase to compete with in the market. Your good deal melts away.

 

Those that set criteria and stick to them like say ubu koto elevate themselves out of the spray of the firehose. Better to raise your criteria out of the commercial grade band or not care or stay at the very bottom. The problem as mentioned is perception.

 

A blade gets posted here and people who do not truly know jump up and say it's a sure Juyo when it has no chance and is deep in the commodity range but the perception is that it is rare treasure... that is where the damage is done. So when confused look to the old ways I think.

 

If I were to partition the market it would be:

 

- blades not worth a polish at all - junk

- blades worth polish but will not gain in value by the price of the polish

- blades worth less than all of the other expenses combined

 

Those three are low end.

 

Then the mid grade market is set by the price of mid grade smiths.

 

High end market you I want have access to famous smiths work of high quality.

 

Top end market contains the best works of the top smiths.

 

Assigning prices is hard in our world where currencies rise and fall 20 percent in a year. But if you look at the work as described and then check the prices. You will see the work defines the markets rather than the dollars define the markets.

 

Guys in the real high end market do not get a low end blade any more often than a guy who wears a Patek will be buying Timex. The prices then track supply and deman of the tastes of these people.

 

This community saw the end of a one time event which was the repatriation of a massive haul of war loot that was not priced with full knowledge of what it was. The community is still suffering adjustments from this. Then it had the return of those same blades that went out got restored and papered and returned and sold on the back of the papers. There is still not adequate understanding of attribution coming first in valuing things and why. So people labour under the equivalence of papers being equivalent value. Those that know better don't offer up education... just me here banging the drum. But what they did for decades both ways over the Pacific Ocean was arbitrage. What defeats arbitrage is universal acceptance of ideals which comes from education and exposure.

 

Prices have been adjusting on people as they have found out that no, that chi-jo Saku wakizashi they were told to spend $5k on as a starter is not worth that because the world is drowning in them. That same problem plays itself out over and over again.

 

The safe areas are at the extremes. Rare and special or common and cheap, when you have common and expensive now you are going to end up on the wrong side of the pricing adjustments. With rare you can buy so high that you go above anyone else who would ever buy and it's another problem. But a $20 tsuba will not ever hurt you. The trick is to try to balance it all. That in itself is an art.

 

But education is the key that unlocks it all.

[Marius]

Thanks, Darcy

Interesting as always. 

[Steve Waszak]

Always enjoy and appreciate your posts, Darcy.  Thanks.

[Gordon Sanders]

Great post Darcy..

like I told you at DTI, I learn more and more each time you pen a post.

 

Even if it does have typos!!!

[seattle1]

Hello:

 I wonder what message a newbie might take from this thread with the emphasis placed on market segmentation based on value intervals for starters and then have them kited into the financial stratosphere. For those who conclude that a superb collection can only be had with mega-bucks, well what's the point of collecting at all as few can buy at levels that exceed the major fraction of a home mortgage! All is not lost! An outstanding collection, one worthy of a major published monograph or catalog, can be acquire for a lot less!

 For a reference and example set I went to the three catalogs published as Yushu-to Zuroku, (aka, Illustrated Record of Yushu Rated Swords) published by the NTHK, the oldest continuous Japanese sword association, in 1979, 1982 and 1996. I also surveyed a similar catalog, titled the same, by the NTHK (NPO) faction, in 2015. Swords that receive the designation Yushu and Sai Yushu may not have quite the status of NBTHK Juyo, but that is more the issuing organization and its fame that the comparisons of subject blades. The NTHK catalogs contain superb swords from Ko Bizen Masatsune to Bizen Saburo Kunimune, to Masamune attributions (all such as daito are attributions irrespective of organization), through the ranks of excellent later blades ending, in the case of the NPO with shinsakuto. To just touch on the newer blades by my count the following are included: Gassan Sadakazu, Horii Toshihide, Yoshihara Kuniie (the grandfather of the current Kuniie brothers), Tsukamoto Okimasa, another Toshihide, Sukezane Utsusu Ryozanshi Masamine. and Nanki Taro Masataka, the latter two being shinsakuto. All are highly regarded smiths, one being a Teishitsu Gigei-in, and one being a post war Living National Treasure. All are publishable and worthy of a meibutsu display.

 I believe all of those smiths could be acquired in good examples for comparatively modest sums, in several cases well less than $20,000.00, and in the case of one or two, slightly more. These smiths represent the best of the best among the post-Meiji smiths and could constitute a superb collection for anyone whose interest has a focus of that period. If your desire is Ko Bizen, particularly signed examples, well that is a different story, but no more worthy as a legitimate collecting focus. Worthwhile sword collecting has a pretty wide tent.

 Arnold F.

[BIG]

True words ( as always ) from Arnold. The first CATALOGUE OF 150 EXELLENT SWORDS shows more than 30 shinshinto blades.

Darcy said in an older thread the Nbthk gives only , about 4 % juyo attribution to shin shinto blades, almost the big five smiths involved.

 

So if you collect... Grey Doffin sells the NTHK catalogues, I think the first one, translation inclusive for only 80 $.

 

Best Regards

[Stefan]

Please  keep in mind, times are changing.  In  the  beginning of my nihonto hobby, gendaito has been cheap. 600 bugs for an Chikamitsu in polish by example.( This blade did have  an extrem sudareba hamon, really nice ) 600 Bugs, today 300 Euro....

Another example or finding  : A Shinshinto Blade  in  complete Mino-Goto.-Mounts  of the best  quality. 800 Deutsch Mark ( DM ) at this time.

Today only the tsuba will be  priced like this.

In those time the  internet  has not been in existance.

Today, in the international time, prices for mediorcer blades  do explode. Oh it is an Jumei tosho, wow,  3000 $...

On the  other  hand, the prices for slightly higer  priced blades are acting like waves. I do think  that there ist an connection with the always actual  paper problem. ( Yakuza and the NBTHk, Eto the Whistleblower, the NTHK Shisma etc ).

The only things  which does not change : Junk will  allways be  junk.

Super High class will never  be cheap.

But to be true : In the meantime, even junk is expensive for what it is. 500 Euro for an unhardend blade with false signature...

No, that is not an exception

[vajo]

Stefan, through the internet more people come into collecting. Before the internet it was much more difficult to contact other collectors and recieving informations.

 

And dont forget we all getting older. I'm nearly 50 now and the time goes by and the younger come.

 

I didnt know how many swords get lost every year by fire, damage, false handling or get stolen. But they count much more than new ones coming in the ring.

 

 

Haha my english is so terrible.

[BIG]

We are not in Kansas anymore !!

 

Best Regards

[drbvac]

True:   I still think that supply and demand will drive up the prices of all the middle class blades whatever the cut-off. Those that are bought

between 10 and 20 G now will move between collectors and as more people get into Nihonto there are only so many blades in existence. It is not like

"original prints" where there are 300 copies of the same picture or Hummel figurines that are collectable and increase a little over the years but now

too damn much. Only after hundreds of years when they get broken or lost and the numbers go down does the price go up.

 

In a hundred years I have no doubt that all the prices of individual blades will go up way more than a lot of other things.

[Kronos]

I can't see the high end blades going up in that fashion as most are in the collection of people who take care of them, but there's going to come a day when the low end stuff that's sitting in vet's grand children's attics are no more and with all the amateur polishing and using them for cutting practice on trees they're going to become rarer bumping the entire market. But like you say, that's in 100 years (if we're still here).

 

Darcy, I think your time at the high end is also reflected in your bands. The difference between a $1k sword, a 3k sword, a 5k sword and a 10k sword is absolutely massive to some of us to the same extent as your high end and top end, so while $50k may not be high end, $10k is not low end and there's many more bands.