Notice from Kazushige Tsuruta

[BIG]

Hi all,

 

on AOI find this notice:

 

http://www.aoijapan.com/notice-aoi-art-president

 

 

Best Regards

[Bugyotsuji]

Informative and yet heart-warming message, Peter. (Love the RIP at the end!)

[Peter Bleed]

Peter,

Thanks for posting this link. I, too, discovered it and found it of interest. Tsuruta-san has always been gracious and his ebsite is really very nice!. He was very pleasant at the San Francisco Event. He seems like the kind of person who should have a good sense of where the sword market is and where it is heading. Still, his notice has a cryptic quality - like a Zen Koan - that makes it like trying to use Janet Yellen's statements on the Federal Reserve. Is Tsuruta-san simply telling us that this is a good time to buy swords in Japan? And if he isa right, should we assume that sword prices are about to tumble in overseas markets (i.e. North America)?

Is it finally time to sell our Confederate dollars 'cause the South ain't gonna rise again?

Peter

[johnnyi]

As this is my first post, I'm glad it is a post to thank you, Mr. Kazushige Tsuruta, for the message you've written here. The spirit and the poetry you've expressed so well have been what has drawn me back to this interest, and it is a particularly comfortable feeling knowing that there are people who look at what they are selling with a deeper devotion than were they mere objects. Thank you, John Irwin

[BIG]

Hi Peter,

 

True words. Tsuruta san Said, he bought expensive and has to Sell cheap.

 

But I think it's the Same at all markets. When you bought a TH this year, you will

 

GET a Juyo next Year for the Same Money.

 

So Stay " manly " to your Business, but the notice Shows a little " desperate " shape.

 

Best Regards

[Pete Klein]

It is told of Baron Rothschild that in the days following the defeat of France in the Franco-Prussian War, when the mod ruled Paris, that a friend went to him and said “What are you going to do to protect your interests in this dreadful hour?” The Baron said to him, “Can you keep a secret?” He said, “Yes,” and the Baron said, “Well, if the truth must be told, I am protecting myself by buying real estate.” His friend said, “Do you mean to say you are buying real estate with the gutters of Paris running with blood and the city in the hands of a mob?”

 

Rothschild said, “Yes, my friend, I mean that very thing, and that is the only time, when the gutters are running with blood, that you can buy real estate at 50 cents on the dollar.”

[Surfson]

It was indeed a very cryptic post! We need Arnold Frenzel's understanding of markets to fully understand, but I take a few things from his message, adding my own interpretation and annotations.

1. I doubt he will be coming to the US shows again any time soon.

2. The market for swords from Japan is strong, reflecting the large devaluation of the yen. I suspect that he can be a strong buyer domestically and buy swords from Japanese families, either directly or via the auctions.

3. Availability of swords for collectors outside Japan is growing due to the increase in access.

4. There are many Chinese (and other newly wealthy) buyers with lots of money and the need to invest in other than the Chinese real estate market (which may be correcting significantly soon).

5. There is a correction of sword prices underway, so gird your loins, have some guts and buy at the dip.

 

Just my two bits.

[Pete Klein]

In Japan Tsuruta consigns many items so it's little to no risk. Outside he must buy and with a weakened Yen he now feels the pain we have had to deal with for years. It is also an issue for outside of Japan collectors who have purchased over the poor exchange rate years as what you bought then may very well now be worth less. Long term cost averaging helps of course is you are savvy. Best to collect, not 'invest' unless you are an astute collector with a good grasp of arbitrage.

[cabowen]

Best to collect, not 'invest' unless you are an astute collector with a good grasp of arbitrage.

 

And a crystal ball...

[watsonmil]

Dear Peter,

If you're young and wealthy enough its a good time to buy ( strictly as a hobby for enjoyment NOT an investment ). If you're looking to have any monies for retirement and you're older its best to SELL as soon enough no one will have an interest by either .... financial constraints or illegality.

... Ron Watson

[smicha6551]

Too bad if he's really not planning on attending US shows as I really would have liked to meet him (and I'd probably feel obliged to spend money...).

 

What do you mean by illegality so far as reducing interest?

[YOJIMBO]

Mr. Tsuruta selling predominantly consignment of goods. And he certainly is not perfect. And not since almost everything handled for him by employees.

[watsonmil]

Dear Steven,

What do you mean by illegality so far as reducing interest? Steven what I meant was with CERTAIN countries getting more and more touchy about the import of swords among other items ... good example the UK. If you are living in the UK you need sufficient proof that the Japanese sword or other swords manufactured in any country are either ANTIQUE or hand forged. Otherwise the item may be seized by UK Customs and destroyed. Countries ( Politicians ) are forever passing new laws as a means of winning voters on the impression that they are suppressing crime. Hell in many countries if an item is listed as a knife or sword .... companies like eBay will not allow these people to even view little alone bid ! ( If I am mistaken and I think not, ... some member in the UK will correct me ). HERE : Read what Politicians can do with the stroke of a pen : http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/roadshow/fts/ch ... 04A10.html For all intents and purposes IVORY of any kind is now illegal to import/export in the USA ... even between states within the USA.

... Ron Watson

[Kronos]

Nothing wrong with the importation of Swords here in the UK, they simply need to conform to the law which for Nihonto is simple enough to show. Ebay is a completely separate matter in which the company has taken it upon itself to ban the purchase/sale of items that fall into an entire category *just in case* someone sells something illegal or to a child. This was a PR stunt by the company and an easy solution instead of policing it properly.

 

As far as I can tell there's no threat of the laws being tightened any further and ebay's policy is inflating prices in the UK if anything as it takes away one avenue of purchasing directly from owners so everything seems to go through dealers and auction houses now.

 

From my perspective I can only see the prices rising in the west due to the decrease in availability from veterans and their families, the improvement of the world economy over the next decade correcting prices and all the new wealth that is being generated in the developing world. Longer term all the amateur's ruining swords not to mention these are finite goods that can only go through so many polishes and will eventually become too tired, especially the old Koto swords that only have a single polish left in them. Ultimately it will depend upon whether the buyers are there and if the interest remains that can outstrip the dwindling supply.

[watsonmil]

Dear James,

How wonderful to see such optimism. I've always been a pessimist ... with that characteristic trait ... I'm never disappointed !

 

... Ron Watson

[jlawson]

There must be a market for such things in order for prices to remain high as well though. Hate to say this but scholarship for Japanese Swords is in serious trouble based on years past. We are not bringing sword students into the hobby and people are exiting the hobby faster than being replenished. In addition your comment about veterans also holds true here as well. The old days of being able to get into the sword game for little money and finding a treasure are going away. This is a very expensive hobby that takes years of study to get to a level where one should be knowledgeable enough to buy. Although it may be argued many young folks don't have the patience for this type of study for a hobby. In addition, this hobby at its purest form is a very expensive proposition that exclude so many young people from become true students. Which causes them to buy without knowledge, get stung on a purchase, then swiftly exit front he hobby because they were "taken advantage of". Do not get me wrong I still think there will be a market for the best of the best of items (as there is in all hobbies) but the universe of people buying them will become smaller and smaller creating a buyers market.

Just my .02

[smicha6551]

EBay has been weapon unfriendly for a long time - I'm not surprised on the restrictions for the UK.

To JLawsons' point, the situation reminds me of philatelists and other traditional hobbies that seem to be aging out. The situation for me is that most of the texts seem to be written by and for enthusiasts that have been studying Nihonto for a decade or more - like reading a masters/PHD level text when what I need is a freshman book or A "Nihonto for Dummies" book. This is something easy to pick up for stamps, coins, Han radio and guns. I realize that this may not be an achievable goal but it would be nice to have some sort of guide that would give the average person some sort of chance of purchasing a reasonable sword and not be totally robbed. Telling folks to purchase a few thousand in often unpenetratable books and go away for a few years guarantees dead organizations and dying markets. I've seen this happen with other hobbies that have failed to connect with new people.

[Grey Doffin]

Hi James,

Interesting take on the market and one I've heard before of late. I'm not so sure I agree, however.

I've often told beginners who've asked me a question, that most any question about Nihonto can be asked of oil paintings (something they might have more knowledge of) and the answers will be similar. How old are they? Yesterday to 1,000 years. How much are they worth? $1 to millions. How do I know which are the good ones? Study.

So let's look at oil paintings. Everything that's been said above about Nihonto can be said about oil paintings: steep learning curve, impenatrable books, very expensive to get into, large risk of buying forgeries. But the market for oils at most all levels seems to be strong in spite of the current economy. If Antiques Roadshow is any indication, the market for lesser known regional painters is healthy and I doubt that collectors of old master oils are leaving the field in droves.

I believe money will seek out and acquire quality in all fields, including Nihonto.

And if anecdotal evidence counts, I'm getting new collectors buying books quite often.

Grey

[watsonmil]

Dear James,

I always tell those new to Nihonto, ... that an excellent introduction at a most reasonable price is : The Samurai Sword by John Yumoto ( easily available through used book sellers on the Internet ).

... Ron Watson

 

PS. I failed to mention Grey Doffin is a book seller. He might well have a copy available.

[Jean]

Fully agree with Grey, I had Painting in my mind while reading the above posts. You must realize thet we are not talking about collecting pebbles but Art. Any kind of Art must be studied as Art must be. No shortcut. You want to buy a sword, you go to one of the dealers posted in the "Links" pages at the top of this page, but you won't learn anything.

Japanese Arts are probably among the cheapest compared to otherones. A top top blade will cost 1 to 2 M$ at most. What is it compared to a Picasso, a Van Gogh and scores of other painters....

[watsonmil]

Jean, Jean, Jean,

Picasso was a painter ?? ... and Van Gogh was a painter ?? Now if you'd said Rembrandt .... or my Grandson : Peyton Watson !

 

... Anonymouse Ron

[jlawson]

Grey I think you may have missed my point. I also agree with you that money will seek out and acquire quality in all fields, in fact I said something very similar in my post. The issue I see is that the universe of qualified and ready buyers is shrinking due to them getting older and the number of new students not outpacing the ones who are exiting. Look around at the sword shows, we are not as many getting younger students, and we are all getting older. I am 41 and am in the younger crowd in the room. Looking at us where we used to support many shows nationwide we struggle a bit supporting 3. Since I know you are involved, how many folks are in the JSSUS now compared to 15 years ago?

Could not agree more with you Jean that these are works of art not pebbles but to the example of the paintings as well: most everyone has an oil painting in their home, but a minute fraction of that number has a Japanese sword. Same can be said for any niche hobby.

[smicha6551]

I'm 39 - at the get together of the Mid Atlantic Token Kai I might not have been the youngest person there...but I certainly was close. I will say books on say oil painting are far clearer as to (for example) styles. Compare this to a book on Tusba I recently purchased that seems to be randomly put together and useless towards figuring out how to determine things like what school a piece is. I won't argue the other points made other than to say that as a hobby the collection and study of Nihonto strikes me as the least open to anyone who hasn't been involved for years - to the contrary it sounds like there's plenty that would rather new people stay out.

[watsonmil]

Dear Steven,

I am 67 years of age and have been collecting for probably close to 35 years. I am far from wealthy, ... but have still amassed a reasonable collection of Japanese Art/Artifacts. Other than a few Elitist persona on the NMB, ... I have found encouragement, friends and indeed have tried to encourage younger people to take an interest. I think what you are missing here is the necessity of being prepared via books, shows, videos and advice to take it slow and gently. To do otherwise is to be disappointed and possibly even ridiculed. I mentioned a Primer Book in my previous post. This I would recommend you pick up. It will at least give you a foundation to start from. None of us were born Nihonto/Samurai Arts collectors, ... we all had to pay our dues by study and examination and asking pertinent questions. After 35 or so years, ... there is much I do not know even in the field that I am considered by some an expert. I do agree with you that there is a shortage of younger people taking up the hobby/study and I blame this on not only financial constraints but also the desire of the younger people for instant gratification. I think most if not all of us encourage people and few if any have the desire to keep others out.

... Ron Watson

[cabowen]

I don't think anyone who has their eyes open will argue that the market for Japanese swords in the West has shrunk as prices have equalized to a great extent with those in Japan. The number of collectors has indeed shrunk, if we take memberships in Western sword clubs, attendance at shows, etc. as proxies. I wonder though if the new riches in Russia and China have actually, in total, compensated for this contraction?

 

The situation in Japan is quite a concern to most collectors and craftsman that I am in regular contact with. The market was artificially inflated during the bubble years and has now contracted quite drastically. The dearth of new, younger collectors and craftsman is a huge concern.

 

One doesn't need to be an expert, study, attend shows, buy books, or otherwise do all the things many do when they get into the hobby if they are wealthy. All one needs is a fat wallet and an internet connection and you can buy papered examples of all the best smiths. It bears keeping in mind that post war kantei-sho system was conceived to meet the demands of dealers- dealers who wanted to make swords attractive to a larger pool of buyers, i.e., the wealthy without a lot of knowledge. I think there will always be a market among the wealthy for the best items. These will in almost all cases be papered or "known" and thus easily identifiable.

 

In Japan, sword collecting has always been the sport of kings. It became more mainstream when the river of cash was flowing downstream...those days are over. In the West, in particular, in the US, "collecting" really caught fire when people realized the money that the Japanese dealers were willing to pay. This brought all sorts of treasure hunting opportunists onto the scene. Many if not most have either moved on to the next great thing or simply passed on. Due to the huge costs in terms of both real cash and time to learn to pan for this gold, the young for the most part now stay away. The days of walking into a gun show/garage sale/flea market and walking out with a few chu saku or better blades for $50 each are over. Of course, every now and then something wonderful falls from the sky for the cost of a car wash, but as I have said before, you probably have better odds with a lottery ticket. One didn't need much knowledge in those days- you made out just fine on quantity. Maybe three were train wrecks but that forth one you bought for $50 and sold to the Japanese dealer at the show for $500 made up for a lot of mistakes.

 

No doubt there are still deals to be had today, but one needs to be a lot more knowledgeable to stay afloat. The young entrant isn't going to prosper in most cases in the shark infested waters that are today's sword markets.

 

As has been said ad nauseam, the best stuff will always find a home. The same can be said for the bottom of the barrel. Things in the middle are....difficult.

 

Personally, I am rather pessimistic about the near future of the hobby. For investment, there are better alternatives from a purely financial standpoint. To me, putting money into swords that one may eventually need for something else is not a good idea. Unless it is pure disposable income, in general, I would look somewhere else to park cash.

 

I see many things working against the hobby, as others have mentioned. The only hope is finding an enthusiastic market flush with cash that can be cultivated. See above.

 

As for Tsuruta san's message, I think he is saying that now is the time for Westerners to buy. I think many Japanese lament the fact that swords will be flowing out of Japan...As someone else mentioned, don't expect to see him at the next US sword show...He was one of the first and without a doubt the largest, to cash in on selling swords to the outside world on-line. He will continue to do well...

[b.hennick]

Chris - not if he can't ship outside of Japan. FEDEX and Japan Post are not shipping blades to Canada and the USA.

[Kronos]

As a spritely 28 year old I think I'm the exception to the rule and most people my age are simply too busy starting a family or progressing their career at this stage in life to even contemplate collecting anything much, especially a hobby that requires so much learning. Hopefully in the next 2 years I'll be re-entering education to progress my career, at which point I can't imagine having the ability to further my Nihonto knowledge for quite some time as doing both would simply be too draining.

 

I'd say most people will be in their 40's with kids who are almost grown and in a settled place job wise with the financial stability to afford what can be a very expensive hobby. I guess we'll find out when those of the Manga/Anime generation reach that age who one would hope would have the most interest in Nihonto due to their predisposition to Japanese culture. Even then it takes a certain type of person and despite my earlier post seeming optimistic I'm very much a realist in that it could go either way. One thing that is going for it is the fact it is so unique, where else can you get something 700 years old that took real skill to forge for such a price?

 

Ultimately I'd echo others thoughts that quality will always win out and there will always be a market for anything about your average Jo Saku or above which you can already see the gap forming to the lesser swords. On the bright side if prices do continue to fall I may one day be able to afford something on Darcy's site

[bone]

Dear James,

How wonderful to see such optimism. I've always been a pessimist ... with that characteristic trait ... I'm never disappointed !

 

[cabowen]

Chris - not if he can't ship outside of Japan. FEDEX and Japan Post are not shipping blades to Canada and the USA.

 

I received several blades via Japan Post/EMS recently (US). Is this new? I have quite a few blades in Japan at the moment....that would be a problem...

[Tcat]

Hi All,

 

This message from Tsuruta-san left me thinking about the matter and I wanted to share some of my rambling thoughts with the board.

 

I am 31 now. I was 23 when I started to develop a strong interest in Japanese swords (strong enough to spend $1000 on a high quality replica, and even then I thought what I was doing was more than just mildly eccentric - please don't flame me for spending so much on a chinatana, I wanted to cut up tatami rolls with a heavy long sword and the market for genuine nihonto was much stronger at that time) but it wasn't until I was 27 that I plucked up the courage and funds to purchase my first papered blade in full koshirae (a wazamono ranked smith I'll have you know ). It took several leaps of faith from a casual interest in Japanese culture, to samurai culture, to actually buying a replica blade, then finally an antique sword of some value; and that came only after years of interest and study in Japanese martial arts, anime , living a few years in Asia etc. It takes some time to develop an appreciation for the level of skill involved in the craft and to some degree I believe it takes an introduction from a trusted mentor or well respected person to really understand just how special an object a finely made sword is. Then of course, one needs the (spare) money. On top of all this..something needs to give an individual that final push to make the move into collecting, but that is another topic altogether

 

I think the biggest problem for new collectors (in the west) is twofold. The first is that comparatively speaking on a global scale, the average westerner approaching middle age is now approximately 50% as wealthy as folk of a similar age 40 years ago and as such they (we) have about half the disposable income of the generation before them (us). Nothing in particular can be done about this. The second is accessibility, but this can be addressed by enthusiasts such as ourselves. There are just hardly ever any opportunities for exposure to swords and fittings for average people. Whether it be by virtue of the nature of Japanese swords or by nature of those types of individuals that collect Japanese swords, the artworks themselves do not lend themselves well to exposure to high numbers of people - especially not on a casual basis. This is not the case with visual and decorative arts. I think a person needs to hold at least one real sword before they can truly fall in love with them. There are "art" (painting, sculpture) exhibitions everywhere. There are posters of oil paintings everywhere, an image can be easily reproduced. Samurai art needs to be actively sought out by those who are already interested. It has been mentioned before but I think it was far more common for average folk to come into contact with a Japanese sword in the post war to late 1970s period, when many people had a WWII trophy in the attic from dad/grandad, swords often appeared in antiques and pawn shops, gun shows etc. After the 1980s when so many swords went back to Japan it has become exponentially less likely that a "random" person outside the field would come into contact with a Japanese sword. There is also the issue of various governments and administrative soft power actively promoting the dumbing down of mass culture, the mollification of citizenry, the nanny state, the demonization of "weapons", implied association with criminality or violence or evil, the list goes on.

 

My take on the Tsuruta's comments are as follows - now or over the next couple of years is the time to buy swords from Japan as their price is pretty much at an all time low. Prices for quality swords outside Japan which were previously considered low by Japanese are now are comparatively high. Because of this, import of swords to Japan has all but ceased and an equilibrium has more or less been reached. As economies improve in the BRIC and as their population far outstrips that of Japan we are likely to see the tipping point around about now, where more swords leave Japan than enter. In the long term this potentially bodes well for the craft, but as others have mentioned, it depends on the administration of each country's willingness to allow free flow of trade. China is a notorious Japan hater for reasons not necessary to mention here, and this political maneuvering extends unfortunately to Japanese swords which are banned in China (despite their hypocritical export of tons of replicas every year). Sure, this does not stop all collectors on the mainland but does make things a lot more complicated for interested parties, especially the further north one moves in the country. The smart money for future collectors/dealers I believe would be on Russia and Brazil. The market for samurai arts could develop nicely in these locals, Russia having a long history of interaction with Japan and Brazil having a strong Japanese integrated community.

 

Personally I believe some of the responsibility lies with each of us to educate our friends as to the value of these objects. I have a couple of friends who are very interested in purchasing a Japanese sword but have yet to "make the plunge", mainly due to monetary reasons. I am sure that were they to have a financial windfall they would among other things purchase a nice Japanese sword, but not everyone can win the lottery. Please share your collection with friends over tea. If each of us introduces just one or two new collectors to the field we will be on the way to doubling the size of the market, consider this.

 

Regards,