Paper levels and their effect on value

mywei · June 26, 2013

Hi all,

Just out of curiosity I was wondering about the level of authentication papers (NBTHK) and how significant is the effect on the commercial value of a blade. ?probably more of an effect in the Western market cf Japan

i.e If a unpapered blade is valued at $1, what would the value multiplier be when the same blade is Hozon, TH or Juyo.

Cheers.

cabowen · June 26, 2013

I think it is difficult to generalize. Sometimes it can make a big difference-like for a big name signature. Other times, it makes not so much difference (mid or lower level smith). For gendaito, I don't think having papers adds anything to the value. Difference between Hozon and Tokubetsu Hozon is hard to generalize as well as some swords at Hozon cost more than those with higher papers. It would be nice if there was some simple formula, but in my experience, it just doesn't seem to work that way.

mywei · June 27, 2013

Ok, I see.

I would surmise that koto blades would be more significantly affected compared to later blades then? I guess this would also depend on the buyer baseline knowledge in the market i.e. Papers may not hold too much significance in Japan due to a higher knowledge base?

What would be a ball park figure if any if applied to say a jo/jo-jo level smith if there can be a broad generalisation?

I wonder because of the motivations behind why one would bother to submit a blade for anything higher than Hozon.

cabowen · June 27, 2013

As I said, there are so many variables that I personally find it very difficult to make generalizations such as the ones you are attempting. They can quickly lead one astray.

paulb · June 27, 2013

Matt,

I agree with Chris and it is impossible to make a general "fit all rule". For what it is worth I have summarised my thinking below which could well be misguided.

1. As Chris suggested It is impossible to generalise and compare values for different smiths. i.e. in my view a hozon papered Awataguchi Yoshimitsu would be worth much more than a Juyo kongobyoe blade.

2. If you compare blades by a given smith and of similar quality, being a Juyo rahter than TH or Hozon increases a swords saleability and market value. At one time I thought the relative value doubled but now I think probably not so much maybe 50 -60% increase. This is more important in the west than in Japan.

3. Likewise Tokubetsu Hozon seems mainly significant to western buyers where they see it as an added quality statement and therefore enhancing value. I think in Japan the tendency has been to authenticate with Hozon and for many that is enough because they know the quality of what they have. However as they sell on a broader world market higher level papers have become significant. The NBTHK now require a sword has TH papers before they will accept it for Juyo shinsa so I would expect to see more TH blades appearing on the market (particulalry those that dont make Juyo)

As has been said here many times, buy the sword not the paper and its only true value is what someone is prepared to pay for it. Owning a juyo or tokubetsu Juyo should not be the aim. Owning (if you ever do which is a debate in itself) a beautiful piece of crafted history that appeals to you and you enjoy is what counts.

seattle1 · June 27, 2013

Hello:

Interesting topic indeed Matt! Chris Bowen is of course essentially correct that generalizing hard and fast rules about factoral differences between papers is more or less hopeless. The reason is that all swords are essentially unique and there can be great quality differences in the work and condition of any smith's total output, and one never knows, in most cases, whether any paper is as high as a given blade can go, or just the first step. However I do wonder if papers do not matter with gendaito? I believe he excludes shinsakuto, which of course would not in cases of living smiths receive papers at all unless the issuer made an error. Many collectors do seek papers on some gendaito, thus having an implicit impact on value, as some have been faked and some signed student work or had students sign with the major smith's name. Perhaps Chris could clarify.

More generally I do believe that papers are of value, the issue of relative impact aside, and in a situation or two we can really speculate on value. Matt mentioned the NBTHK and we can surely say that if we assume a blade has reached its terminal paper, Hozon, Tokubetsu Hozon, Juyo and Tokujo have a clear rank order for any given smith, just as a few years ago Kichi, Tokubetsu Kicho, Kosho Tokubetsu Kicho, etc., had impacts. Aside from that I believe we can generalize to the extent of saying that papers, any paper, have a larger relative impact on a signed blade than one that is unsigned or suriage, the reason being that the uncertainty surrounding blades without mei is substantial but not fatal. What one group or one submission might say today could very well be "elevated" to a much better call next year. A down grade is destroyed. With a signed blade the paper says, in almost all cases, that the object is genuine. Failure there has no good solution, just more risk and expense and probable disappointment. The outcome is often fatal.

Matt concluded that papers were more important outside Japan than in Japan. I have been to a number of dealer shows in Japan and blades almost always have papers, NBTHK papers, and the majority of potential buyers are Japanese. It is increasingly common in the US these days to see or expect to see a papers for all high ticket blades on sale.

Finally, the NBTHK is hardly the only or even the oldest paper issuing group in Japan. There are two versions of the NTHK, each with senior judges who have good bona fides and real credibility. There are well respected papers issued by the now defunct Fittings Museum (a major misnomer), the Toen-sha of the late Murakami sensei, and various strictly regional groups. There are also papers issued by togi such as Fujishiro sensei, Kajihara sensei, and others. Sayagaki also have value when issued by important scholars. The trick is knowing something about each of there groups and individuals as their assessment is subject to change over time.

These are just a few additional thoughts. For a new collector it looks like a jungle, but remember folks pay really serious money for papers and the consequences of that behavior must have a market impact on the values of what is assessed; how much is the question! It would not be empirically impossible to actually measure such things, at least by way of illustration, but it has not been done in a rigorous way as yet.

Arnold F.

kunitaro · June 27, 2013

For example...

1) Osuriage mumei/unsigned katana 73cm good condition.

attributed as Rai-Kunitoshi or Ichimonji or Norishige, etc.

2) Signed and Dated Bizen Sukesada Katana. 69cm Ubu nakago Good condition.

3) Signed Shinshinto Kiyomaro Katana 75cm, good condition

With

a) no paper, according to the seller.

b) NBTHK Tokubetsukicho

c) NBTHK Hozon

d) NBTHK TH

e) NBTHK Juyo

f) NBTHK Tokubetsu-Juyo

What is the market Value/price of those swords ?

cabowen · June 27, 2013

Arnold has filled in some of the blanks with some excellent commentary.

As asked, I will clarify my thoughts about the usefulness of kantei-sho for gendai-to.....I have two reasons:

The first reason I do not think they add to the value is based on the fact that sending a sword to Japan for shinsa, which terminates at Hozon presently for gendaito, will cost one a minimum of $1000 once the all the costs are factored in. Many nice WWII era blades can be found in the $2000-$3000 range. I have not found that the market is attaching a $1000 premium to those that have papers. The cost of the papers, as a percentage of the total value, is simply too high, in relation to the premium it adds to the blade. Or, looking at it another way, the value of an gendai, fake or not, is not so drastically different as to make the large costs of shinsa worth the time and money.

The cost/benefit is not there in most cases because the cost is too high in relation to the value. Like papering a $500 tsuba.

Taking a real life example:

Gendai:

value with papers: $2000

value if fake $1500

cost of papers: $1000

Shinto:

value with papers: $5000

value if fake: $2000

cost of papers: $1000

Much more upside with older blades, in general than with gendai.

Another reason, which is related, is that there are very few fakes of gendai-to- a handful of smiths at best. Most are not worth the time and trouble to try and fake. Those that are, and have been, are possible exceptions to my rule, but because we know which smiths are at risk for being faked, have readily available examples for comparison, as well as people with experience who can be consulted, it is not difficult to suss these out without spending $1000.

When it gets to the point where most Gassan Sadakatsu blades are fake, then with genuine items fetching $10K and up, I would agree that shinsa would add value in excess of the cost.

Same with Yasukuni, Horii Toshihide, Tsukamoto Okimasa, and the like.

To date, Gassan, Yasukuni, and Ningen Kokuho blades are what I have seen and heard of as being faked. If one takes care with these, then shinsa in Japan is probably not a cost effective action.

If one is talking about a NTHK-NPO US based shinsa, which is considerably cheaper, then my opinion might be different, but being a director of that group, it would be a conflict of interest I suppose to change course in that scenario.....

paulb · June 28, 2013

Dear Kunitaro san

I would like to rise to the challenge although with so many factors effecting the number and personal preferences playng a part I expect to be along way off:

1) Osuriage mumei/unsigned katana 73cm good condition.

attributed as Rai-Kunitoshi or Ichimonji or Norishige, etc.

2) Signed and Dated Bizen Sukesada Katana. 69cm Ubu nakago Good condition.

3) Signed Shinshinto Kiyomaro Katana 75cm, good condition

swords numbered from above...........1 rai/ichimonji...........2 Sukesada...........3 Kiyomaru

a) no paper, according to the seller........1. $15-20k.......... 2.$7-10k.................3. $7-10K

b) NBTHK Tokubetsukicho.....................1.as above.......... 2.as above..............3. as above

c) NBTHK Hozon..................................1. $20-30k .......... 2.$10-15K..............3 $20-25K

d) NBTHK TH..................................... 1.$25-35k .......... 2. $15-20k..............3. $25-$30k

e) NBTHK Juyo....................................1. $35-60K .......... 2.$30-40k..............3.$50-100K

f) NBTHK Tokubetsu-Juyo.................... 1.$100-150K.......... 2.$75-100k............3. $150-200

Thinking:

Older NBTHK papers have been discredited over the years. If a seller believed the paper was right they should re-submit for new ones. By leaving the old papers there they create doubt and dont add any value over 1

Blades by important smiths/schools that only have TH papers suggest that they are not in sufficiently good condition to achieve Juyo and are therefore not the very best. While rarity adds something to the value for better schools/smiths the improvement in price over Hozon will not be so great.

Prices on Juyo will be greatly affected by rarity and condition. There are areasonable number of Ichimonji and Rai Kunitoshi Mumei O-suriage blades in existence there are very few Kiyomaru

Tokujuyo are the best available outside Japan and to achieve this level must be in first rate condition. After that rarity and condition would play the major part. Although the Sukesada is ubu they are not uncommon The Kiyomaru would command a very high price.

All above based on personal opinion and if I had an infinite bank account what I would expect to pay. As I dont I will just have to dream

kunitaro · June 28, 2013

Thank you Paul san,

Mine is like this...

swords numbered from above...........1 rai/ichimonji...........2 Sukesada...........3 Kiyomaro

a) no paper, according to the seller........1. $2-5k.............. 2.$1-2k................3. $2-5K

b) NBTHK Tokubetsukicho.....................1.as above.......... 2.as above..............3. as above

c) NBTHK Hozon..................................1. $35-45k .......... 2.$3-15K..............3 $150-250K

d) NBTHK TH..................................... 1. $35-45k .......... 2. $8-20k............. 3.$200-250k

e) NBTHK Juyo....................................1. $45-80K .......... 2.$30-50k.............3.$250-350K

f) NBTHK Tokubetsu-Juyo.................... 1.$100-150K.......... 2.$75-120k...........3. $500k-

* a) and b) if the seller guarantee Hozon, then the price will be 80% of Hozon price.

paulb · June 28, 2013

Thank you Kunitaro san

It was difficult for me not to let my own prejudcie influence me. I am not a great fan of Sukesada or I am afraid to say Kiyomaru. Knowing how rare Kiyomaro blades are I can well believe your estimates. The most expensive blade I ever saw sell was a Kiyomaru (ex Festing collection) which I believe was sold for more than $400k I am not sure what if any papers it had but know it as purchased by a well known dealer in Japan.

thank you for an interesting exercise.

Best Regards

Paul

seattle1 · June 29, 2013

Hello:

The rather innocent question of relative valuations was carefully avoided by Chris, probably wisely, and then dug into in some detail by Kunitaro and paulb. The latter two give specific price ranges for three designated smiths. The problem is that ranges really avoid the issue of evaluation for a particular blade. Such terms as "good condition" really beg the question as to sugata if suriage to any extent, quality of the shape, quality of the togi and its current state, degree of kizu (I have seen significant and multiple hagiri on at least one Tokubetsu Juyo koto blade), when the paper was issued, etc. Also omitted entirely was the fact that fashion changes as to what smith or group is most sought after at any given time. The issue of whether a particular designation is a "terminal" one, or a steppingstone is significant. That makes a huge difference in a buyer's willingness to pay, risk included. From an economic point of view it would seem to matter a lot as to from whose point of view the range is viewed.

Caveats don't mean that a study of relative paper impacts can't be done, it is just that they haven't been. The huge problem is the unique quality of each and every true Nihonto, and any judgment or range has severe qualifications. What I would like to see is the question posed to four different groups of actors, with their identities protected. A group of existing papered blades ranging from Hozon to Tokubetsu Juyo, each very well and fully described, could be presented for hands on examination to 1. owners of same, 2. leading auction houses, 3.dealers, and, 4. leading private collectors - three or four for each group - and ask them. The range would in part be determined by the skills of the viewer, but more importantly by the motives of each of the four sets. Hence the final point:the where, when, by whom, how and to whom of each transaction, is critical, and hence the enemy of over generalization. The most obvious demonstration is that the owners will have a high price bias and the collector the lowest.

Just thinking out loud.

Arnold F.

paulb · June 29, 2013

Hi Arnold

thanks for sharing your thoughts all of which make sense. I agree that one cannot make a "price list" for swords, or indeed any other antique or art work, the pirce is totally governed by what a buyer is willing to pay and the many factors you mention all play their part. this doesnt mean one could not suggest an anticipated price range, auction houses do it all the time with their estimates (also often get it totally wrong )

I think another two points you made were also very important namely Is the paper the upper limit of what the blade is capable of achieving? this will make a significant difference. I have seen two very similar Yamato blades with TH papers one had not been submitted for higher papers the other had and failed. The price label was significantly different (from memory almost double)

The other is who is setting the prices. My opinion was as a collector Kunitaro san is a dealer so how he views market values and prices is bound to be different from mine.

So while I agree with you it is an impossible task to create a water tight accurate price I think it a worthwhile exercise to consider a likely range.

mywei · June 29, 2013

fascinating discussion guys. thanks for the input

NihontoEurope · June 29, 2013

Kunitaro and Paul,

I would be interesting and more conclusive to have your opinions when the same swords carry an existing NBTHK Tokubetsukicho and a Hozon judgement?:

Swords numbered from above...........1 rai/ichimonji...........2 Sukesada...........3 Kiyomaru

Paul

a) NBTHK Tokubetsukicho.....................1. $15-20k.......... 2.$7-10k.................3. $7-10K

c) NBTHK Hozon..................................1. $20-30k .......... 2.$10-15K..............3 $20-25K

g) NBTHK Tokubetsukicho and Hozon......1......?????...........2....?????................3....?????

Kunitaro

a) NBTHK Tokubetsukicho.....................1. $2-5k.............. 2.$1-2k..................3. $2-5K

c) NBTHK Hozon..................................1. $35-45k ..........2.$3-15K...............3 $150-250K

g) NBTHK Tokubetsukicho and Hozon......1......?????............2....?????.................3. ..?????

/Martin

cabowen · June 29, 2013

Kunitaro and Paul,

I would be interesting and more conclusive to have your opinions when the same swords carry an existing NBTHK Tokubetsukicho and a Hozon judgement?:

Don't mean to butt in, but I would guess that there would be no difference in value between a sword with just Hozon and the same sword with both Tokubetsu Kicho and Hozon kantei-sho.

cabowen · June 29, 2013

What I would like to see is the question posed to four different groups of actors, with their identities protected. A group of existing papered blades ranging from Hozon to Tokubetsu Juyo, each very well and fully described, could be presented for hands on examination to 1. owners of same, 2. leading auction houses, 3.dealers, and, 4. leading private collectors - three or four for each group - and ask them. The range would in part be determined by the skills of the viewer, but more importantly by the motives of each of the four sets. Hence the final point:the where, when, by whom, how and to whom of each transaction, is critical, and hence the enemy of over generalization. The most obvious demonstration is that the owners will have a high price bias and the collector the lowest.
Just thinking out loud.

Arnold F.

I think two additional points bear mentioning:

With regard to the value placed on blades by dealers, we should differentiate between the value they place on items when buying versus selling. This wholesale-retail spread can often be, in my experience, quite wide. Have someone walk into a sword shop in Tokyo with a sandai Tadayoshi rated Juto that you bought at that shop 6 months prior- you would be lucky to get 50% of what you paid for it....Rent is high in Tokyo, and so is the price of gas for their ferraris!

Secondly, and related to the first point, is we should also note that a buyer's access to the market can play a large role in individual assessment of values. There are both markets with limited access and buyers with limited markets. Those with access to these markets with limited access may place a lower value on swords. For example, I rarely buy gendaito in the US because I know enough collectors in Japan, where values are lower (if you stay out of the shops) that I can buy privately at much less in many cases that what I would pay in the US. Especially when one factors in condition. Prices in Japan between collectors are in general much lower than what you see at the DTI but few people have access to this private market. As a result, I do not place as high a value, typically, as perhaps an average collector in the West with access to limited markets would, on swords in general.

paulb · June 29, 2013

Martin,

As per Chris' comment I think having both papers would make no difference when compared to having just the Hozon paper.

Chris

I agree the dealers price depends on whether he is buying or selling, if he cant make any money there is no point in doing either.

The only thing I would add is that for those of us with limited access to the market I think the best way is still to develop a relationship with a number of good dealers whose judgement you trust and who know what you are looking for.

kunitaro · June 29, 2013

I think that we don't see much blades with Hozon and TK paper together.

Because, as both mr.Cris and mr.Paul said, you don't need TK paper if you have Hozon.

Most of the sword which has only TK paper, they were already Hozon shinsa in the past.

If the sword didn't get Hozon, or got low class attribution, then it will be back on the market with old TK paper with dream.

It has been like this for a long time,

to be honest, the Tokubetsukicho papers are called "certification of fake" in Japan today....

as we see the market today. the vlaue and price of the sword are strongly depend on Papers.

Especially on Internet market, no body can judge real value/quality of the sword with digital photo and description/opinion.

so, we can say that it is pity to depend on papers, but, i can understand.

in the other hand, Anybody can buy and sell sword with papers, because, there is some guarantee of the quality and value by the authority.

seattle1 · June 29, 2013

Hello:

Chris's most recent post does add to the discussion in at least one important way by way of laying stress on the buyer, and selling context, sort of the economic sociology of the market place. The more knowledge of how to find the best alternatives comes only with time and exposure and we should appreciate the "curtain raising" from time to time. We get some of the same deeper looks from some of the things that get into Markus Sessko's blogs, and I have found the book Facts and Fundamentals of Japanese Swords: A Collector's Guide, by Nobuo Nakahara worth three reads. Such "tales out of school" do not of course always get universal applause.

As for the issue of sales prices not being mentioned, well the question initially posed was paper value impacts a priori. I fully agree that sales data, across various types of selling situations would be the most useful, however a great deal of that never enters any data base.

Arnold F.

NihontoEurope · June 29, 2013

Chris, Paul and Kunitaro,

Thank you for the input.

/Martin

cabowen · June 29, 2013

You are most welcome, and thanks too to Arnold!

Darcy · July 17, 2013

There's a fundamental error in thinking that papers produce a price range for a sword, that is a top price and a bottom price. It's common to think this and it's not accurate though it seems on the surface to apply because most of the time blades are "papered out" to the highest level they can go before hitting the market.

The top end price is the ceiling and the bottom end price is the floor.

What papers help establish is a floor.

So a Juyo mumei work by say a Rai Kunitoshi, Rai Kunimitsu, Ichimonji, etc., one can expect that it would be very difficult to find these below a certain price.

There are those blades that just kind of squeak by the Juyo process though, and some years are more well considered than others... if you for instance go and buy the Juyo oshigata volumes you can see just by the size of the books that in the late 70s there were very many blades that were accepted through the Juyo process. It has a determining factor then in that there is some perception of these sessions having a lower threshold for acceptance. And so, a lower possible floor on the value... and some are suspected would not pass at Juyo these days.

Anyway, for instance, I was presented a signed, ubu Hisakuni tachi once with perfect condition and nice koshirae with NBTHK Hozon papers. Anyone trying to draw a line to a price range on this sword based on it being Hozon would come to an incorrect conclusion. Attempting to negotiate the price based on it being "only Hozon" would draw some laughter from the owner of the sword.

Similarly long ago I was considering a Masamune tanto with old and solid attributions. I made purchasing it qualified based on it passing Hozon, just because I know that pretty much anyone in their right mind would question such a blade at a high price without modern papers on it. It did pass Hozon and this didn't affect the price because it was priced as an authentic Masamune to begin with. To look at it and knowing it's accepted as Masamune, the person looking at the blade would be expected to understand that it would easily pass Juyo and that this is going to be a given in the pricing of the sword.

That is in the end, the sword is priced on what it is and what its condition is. The papers are just an external affirmation of the minimum but not of the maximum level that the sword will eventually settle at.

Hozon you can expect that you have something genuine, but the maximum is really up to speculation and your own skill will settle if you have something overpriced or underpriced.

When I bought the Kanemitsu on my website it was pretty clearly an easy pass to Juyo regardless of the attribution but it had no papers at all. I bought it at auction. So there was some risk that it wouldn't pass as Kanemitsu, but without looking in the catalog my own kantei on the sword was Kanemitsu and it was in the fittings museum as Kanemitsu so I felt pretty good on the risk. I paid a price for it that settled at an upper middle range Kanemitsu Juyo though it was unpapered, and I feel that eliminating the risk of attribution and failure for Juyo increased the market value only by about 20%.

So ... at the end of the day the only real answer on any of this is "it depends."

A Kiyomaro that is a great work and was just papered two months ago that looks like a clear shot at Juyo is going to be priced as a Juyo Kiyomaro, nobody is going to get a 50% discount on it by arguing that it's "only Hozon" and to do so would probably seem foolish to the seller.

So I'd just say in the simple sense that the papers put an external authority's opinion on the blade that establish the lower end of the price spectrum. There are some Juyos that will sell for more than Tokubetsu Juyo and some Tokubetsu Hozon blades will sell every day for double or triple the price of some Juyos.

The value of the sword is in the sword. The papers are just reassurance and so elevate the bottom line, not the top.

seattle1 · July 17, 2013

Hello:

We have been treated to an interesting and rather original essay by Darcy on value ranges for a given sword, the underlying theme being the role of Hozon papers in establishing price minimums, along with the notion that each sword must be assessed on its own merits. I believe there also is a rather subtle assumption in his argument that sees buyer and seller as sharing essentially the same view of the market once that Hozon, or perhaps some higher certification, has been established. The realism of a model's assumptions do not validate or invalidate any model, however I very much doubt that buyers share that sort of symmetry of outlook or knowledge, particularly when one is a professional and the other is a hobby buyer or seller. Each side in the transaction wants the "best" price, be that high or low depending which side you are on. Certainly for the collector the level of a paper matters a lot. There is a great deal of informational asymmetry in this area, and we should recognize it. Dealers play a very valuable role in the sword market, make no mistake, but they also tend to well informed and up-to-date on the market.

The issue of the validity and reliability of papers over time would be interesting to examine. As the NBTHK moved away from Kicho and Tokubetsu Kicho, and Koshu papers to the newer Hozon and Tokubetsu Hozon, how have they transformed in comparison? The same thing could be said about the papers of both the NTHK organizations, and how do Yushu and Sai Yushu papers compare with Juyo papers? We tend to laud the Hozon and Tokubetsu Hozon papers today, but at the same time we often hear that the early Kicho papers really meant a lot.

As for Juyo papers of the 1970s, Darcy seems to argue that they don't tend to be equivalent to the Juyo of today, if I read him correctly. In my opinion I believe we should not forget that after the war Japan experienced a very high real GDP growth rate of about 10% between the mid-1950s and the mid-1960s. In the years just thereafter there was heavy buying of swords by Japanese dealers in the US in particular, but elsewhere too. Many of those swords were excellent GI bring backs and they tended to swell Juyo submissions. Now we read of high Chinese GDP growth and low Japanese real growth. In the ten years ending in 2011 Japanese real growth was about 1.5%. We await the Abe effect! What holds up the market today is not Japanese buying of course, but the internationalization of taste that is attracted to things Japanese.

These are just some rough thoughts. It would be interesting to have well known and well informed dealers like Darcy hold forth further on the market place. I would be particularly interested in his views on the discount, other things equal, that should apply to mu mei Juyo.

Arnold F.

cabowen · July 17, 2013

There are those blades that just kind of squeak by the Juyo process though, and some years are more well considered than others... if you for instance go and buy the Juyo oshigata volumes you can see just by the size of the books that in the late 70s there were very many blades that were accepted through the Juyo process. It has a determining factor then in that there is some perception of these sessions having a lower threshold for acceptance. And so, a lower possible floor on the value... and some are suspected would not pass at Juyo these days.

Judging the quality of shinsa by the number of items passed is fraught with peril....causation/correlation, etc., though no doubt there are those that will draw false conclusions from such data to use to their advantage if they are able.

The quality of a shinsa organization (and the value of their kantei-sho) to a large degree hinges on the clarity, consistency and equal application of their standards of evaluation over time. Obviously teams change members, directors change, etc., all making this a challenge. Scandals and the like also play with perceptions, sometimes creating an "older is better than newer" or "newer is better than older" belief pattern.

Most of these theories concerning shinsa are difficult at best to prove and are normally only heard during a sale, either to talk up a paper or to talk down a paper. Of course I do not include kantei-sho known to be suspect, such as those issued by the NBTHK branches under organized crime influences in the '70's....

Darcy · July 18, 2013

I have brought a sword to a top dealer in Japan and asked if he would buy it (Juyo, Sai-jo smith, mumei) and he gave me his price by asking only three things (attribution, length, and session number it passed Juyo) and chose not to look at the sword though I had it there.

What's true is that ultimately the market is a struggle between contrasting opinions, and all opinions affect the marketability of an item... the more commonly held that opinion is or the more strongly it's promoted, the greater the effect...

Whether those opinions are factual or not doesn't matter as much (this is why marketing works) as the opinions being held, especially as in some cases the facts are murky or unknown or unknowable. What matters is what people believe.

If enough people believe that an item papered Hozon should not be more than $10,000 then nobody would buy one. Ultimately though enough people are prepared to judge a sword on its own merits and accept Hozon as a threshold of confirmation that some level of widely regarded expertise was applied and a mostly acceptable judgment rendered on the accuracy of a signature or the attribution to a maker rather than a ceiling on the value of a sword that many high end items will change hands at high values and never pass through Juyo. For some buyers this is more preferable anyway as it helps keep the item unknown, which has its own type of cachet.

My own belief is that those thresholds change in subtle and more obvious ways, as teams evolve over time, there's a natural ebb and flow at work in this process. This is before one gets to things like scandals and monetary influence, or before things like introducing new levels of paper that represent the "top" and making the old top a second tier... and what that does subjectively as well as objectively. So I see the threshold as a wavy line over time, going down for various reasons and then being pulled back up as goals change to tighten things up.

kunitaro · July 18, 2013

Dear Dacy san,

I have brought a sword to a top dealer in Japan and asked if he would buy it (Juyo, Sai-jo smith, mumei)

I remeber the sword and your story...

Jiro49 · July 18, 2013

A quick question regarding old papers. Are there certain years of old papers that are still considered valid, as in believable enough not to warrant new papers if the work confirms the attribution?

Thank you.

cabowen · July 18, 2013

I have brought a sword to a top dealer in Japan and asked if he would buy it (Juyo, Sai-jo smith, mumei) and he gave me his price by asking only three things (attribution, length, and session number it passed Juyo) and chose not to look at the sword though I had it there.

What's true is that ultimately the market is a struggle between contrasting opinions, and all opinions affect the marketability of an item... the more commonly held that opinion is or the more strongly it's promoted, the greater the effect...

Whether those opinions are factual or not doesn't matter as much (this is why marketing works) as the opinions being held, especially as in some cases the facts are murky or unknown or unknowable. What matters is what people believe.

I won't argue that perceptions play a powerful role in a market, but when it comes to swords, a few things bear mentioning:

Swords are always judged individually and whether or not an item passed a Juyo shinsa that some people "believe" was substandard says nothing of the quality and value of an individual sword in and of itself. There are always rumors, old wive's tales, and other forms of noise in any marketplace. "What matters is what people believe" paints a picture with a very broad brush; not everyone believes the same rumors. There are some people who think for themselves, thankfully, and are able to recognize a quality sword when they see it.

This type of noise works both ways: dealers exploit it when possible (whether they believe it or not), and the smart money understands it as a place to find value.

Who starts these kinds of rumors? Follow the money.

While your dealer story, at face value, seemingly implies that the dealer set his price based at least in part on the session number, we do not know with any certainty how much, if at all, or in which direction, that information actually played in his valuation , do we? Do we know he actually believed it or was simply trying to exploit a rumor?

I brought an out of polish sword to a well known dealer once and offered it. His price was, as expected, quite a bit less than what I wanted. He said the reason was the sword was out of polish, and that he liked to buy swords in polish because of the risks of polishing, and that they were worth more in polish. I thanked him and left. I returned 2 years later with the same sword, this time in fresh, high quality polish; the sword showed no flaws. I again showed him the sword. This time he offered slightly less than the first time! He then proceeded to tell me that he liked to buy out of polish swords because they had "upside potential"...

Moral: most dealers are always looking for an angle to buy cheaply (and sell high)...

kunitaro · July 18, 2013

Are there certain years of old papers that are still considered valid,

If you find one of these ( NBTHK Kicho-token Feb.19-1950) !

It will be more important than Juyo-paper.

This is copy of Tokenbijutsu 1950 June.

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Paper levels and their effect on value

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