New Poll - Economy & Nihonto

[Brian]

Hi all,

By suggestion of a member, I thought it might be interesting to add the following poll. Will leave it running for a week, and see what results we get.

 

Brian

[David Flynn]

Unfortunately, many are still trying to sell at premium price. As I am going to the DTI this year, I've been wondering how sales will go at the San Francisco Show. Also if this will impact on the DTI.

[Jean]

David, I don't think it will impact on DTI prices, Japanese market is not driven by US one. Furthermore, I am not sure that the overall quality is the same in SF and DTI.

[David Flynn]

Jean, Japan is suffering a downturn as well. I wasn't referring to quality, curious about the sales.

[Jean]

David,

 

Prices are more or less the same but for the top swords as the ones you will see at DTI. The best way to play is the currency, ¥ has started again to skyrocket compared to US$ when buying in €.

 

It means that for European people the market is in the US.

 

You can find some very good unpapered "bargain" blades at DTI, if you know the dealers and recognized quality. I found my Hosho/Tegai katana at Bob Hughes stand. He is a very good guy/friend and will show you "under the table" blades. A friend of mine bought in the same time a Juyo Rai Kunitsugu with an unpapered koshirae which went directly TH

 

You will find equally medium/low stuff but not the kind which justifies a travel to Tokyo.

[cabowen]

Jean, Japan is suffering a downturn as well.

 

For over 20 years now....

[Jean]

Chris,

 

It seems it is changing right now. The new economic policy seems to bear its fruits.

[cabowen]

Chris,

 

It seems it is changing right now. The new economic policy seems to bear its fruits.

 

Being an export driven economy, it can't hurt when you devalue your currency by 25% in a month or two :lol: !!!

 

The question is, how low can they go, and for how long.....

[David Flynn]

Jean, I have also bought a sword at the DTI, through Sokendo. Yes, of course bargains are to be found. However, I'm curious of the overall sales at these two shows this year. Will the Japanese dealers lower their prices? Or will they try an tough it out? e.g. Will they ask 1,000,000yen for something one may Buy in America for $8000?

[Nickupero]

In Nippon as we speak so I figured I'd add my two sense. Much of my response is based on the opinions of the Japanese people I spoke with so please don't persecute me if you don't agree :lol:

Many of the Japanese feel the economy has improved greatly, which could be explained by the devalue of the Yen. I stopped off at a few influential sword shops to see what goodies they had to offer to the market and had the opportunity to speak with in depth with the owners regarding the Japanese Sword Market. Recently the prices for good blades in Japan have gone up greatly, the dealers all had the same opinion with regards to the internal auctions they use to get much of their inventory. They all said that nothing has been coming on the market, and for a while. Initially I though the reason for prices being high was the Japanese trying to capitalize on their deflated Yen, but most of these shops catered almost mostly to the Japanese population.

Maybe there just aren't as many blades in Japan as there used to be, especially with the interest of Western people. I actually believe there is going to be an increase in the value for these items in the next few years, even for the medium grade stuff, but that's just my opinion. I guess we'll see what prices will be at the shows.

[David Flynn]

Nick, like the stock market, Nihonto prices fluctuate. In Oz( and we have a fairly stable economy) things (sword business) have slowed dramatically in the last year, esp. the last 6mnths.

[Jean]

David,

 

It is very difficult to judge the price between two swords above all if they are separated by thousand of miles. Each sword is an unique object...

[David Flynn]

Of course you're right Jean.

[Jean]

I think David that someone like Bob Hughes can answer this question as he is part of Japanese Antique Dealers circle and the only Non Japanese citizen having a table at the DTI

[benatthelake]

I would hate to be a U.S. dealer holding inventory purchased from Japan last year. 20% lost value. For those of us in the U.S., the entire country is on sale!

[Darcy]

My two bits... won't engage in any pissing matches from the regulars, just my opinion and you're free to have your own.

 

I've been to the DTI the last four years and saw many long faces become laughing faces over this time. Low yen is good as it brings in people to the show. People who have never been have been coming and people who have not been yet have been writing to me for advice on going.

 

Things have suddenly appeared which are usually quite hidden... two Tokubetsu Juyo Sadamune for instance. SHintogo Kunimitsu and Shintogo Kunihiro side by side. In one show: three Samonji, one a daito (very hard to find). Soshu Hiromitsu (hmm), a lot of nice Shinto blades but I mostly look at koto.

 

There is a gorgeous Niji Kunitoshi which is like the best one ever that came out at Tokuju.

 

Prices, dealers seemed willing to deal on the end day but the nosebleed stuff a lot of that got locked down and snarfed before the show began. The Masamune was not the best one but it was gone in an eyeblink at 23 million yen. Before the show even started. Soshu Akihiro Tokubetsu Juyo, signed, dated, best one, locked down and gone 20 million yen. Samonji Tokuju: gone. Shintogo Kunihiro tanto, signed, Juyo, gone at 15 million. A friend of mine picked up a gorgeous Nobukuni Juyo. Many Juyos sold.

 

Overall it looked pretty healthy to me and I think demand increasing.

 

Just from people asking on my site about the Go Yoshihiro, this is my general measure of economic stability. Spiked considerably before the show.

 

I bought a bunch of things, Soshu Hiromitsu with koshirae as I can pretty much be expected to do, did not escape me. I have a nice Yoshioka Ichimonji Juyo and a world beater Fukuoka Ichimonji with fantastic koshirae. This one has a solid shot at Tokuju I think and I'm not so fond of saying that especially now in the roll-the-dice-and-cry results era. Also a nice kata kiri ha blade that appears mino with a gakumei that might come from the Naoe Shizu group. It had old papers so I am resubmitting then will see what to do but very cool.

 

Also picked up Juyo Kodogu Futokoromono from the end of the Muromachi period. Unusual for me. Any of you fittings guys who want to take a look at the photos or have a chance for study let me know I can send them around, at least photos at first.