Mushin

What a great and interesting thread. Some great posts here and really awesome observations. I agree with Kirill: there is no clear solution to some of this debate. So much of collecting is like that old saying my mother had: "'It's all of matter of taste,' said the lady after kissing the monkey's bottom." And it is all a matter of taste. There are some obvious agreed on standards and facts, yes, but these shift over time. So, if you believe -- as some die-hard collectors do -- that everything after 1394 is Shinto, then even the most astounding Tadayoshi or Sukehiro or Kotetsu blade will not convince you that the sword is anything more than a nice "newish" folded, sharpened piece of steel. "Cute," as one Ko-Koto enthusiast commented about my Nosada tanto when I showed it to him years ago. On the other hand, if you believe, as some collectors do, that blades without verifiable signatures, are just a blank canvas on to which so-called experts can project their opinions, then nothing without a mei will move you, no matter how stunning the work, because -- as the Asahi Token website says -- "No inscription is no inscription, and it is impossible to determine the author." So - one more cliche - beauty really is in the eye of the beholder. But this thread started out about the market. And the market and taste don't always live in the same neighborhood. So, contrary to the views of Mr. Nakahara (of The Facts and Fundamental's of Japanese Swords, and the Asahi Token website,) a TokuJu O-suriage Ko-Bizen Masatsune Tachi will have no shortage of buyers and will not stay on the market very long, if it even goes to the market in the first place. whereas a good Shodai Tadayoshi might sit around for weeks or longer on a website before it is picked up. This has more to do with the market emotions -- supply and demand, perceived rarity, desirability and exclusivity -- than any comment on quality. And I agree with everybody who says, "collect what you like;" "look for the best condition you can find at your budget;" "buy the sword, not the papers." It is all well and good and true, because collecting is personal. But when the time comes that you might want to sell that piece or trade it for something better, it's is another story entirely. Now you are entering the world of the market. And again, I agree with Kirill: For the marketplace, attribution is quality, attribution is value, top tier papers are both, and that leads us back to the opening question of Lurkez. Since this thread started, I spoke to some dealer/broker friends in the U.S., Europe and Japan and all agree that those amazing pieces from the Kamakura and Nanbokucho like we see in books are becoming harder and harder to find. Many trusted and known collectors are now looking for them and they must put word out that they want them. Then they wait. And when a Juyo Hiromitsu becomes available, it does not go on a website; It is offered at steep prices directly to those collectors who have been waiting, bypassing the open market. This is hardly surprising. Thus, as I said in my earlier posts, yes, Lukrez's observations are largely true. But as the old cliche (God, I am full of them today) goes, "the Market abhors a vacuum." So, when the supply of one commodity runs low, the market looks for the next big thing to fill it, such as works that were previously overlooked or taken for granted, like Ukyo no Suke Katusmitsu, and other top Sue Bizen works. Then lo and behold, prices for Sue Bizen works start to climb and become desirable. Just look at the prices of good Bizen moroha tanto. A few years ago you could pick these up for between $2000 and $8000 (unless it had a zokumyo-mei Yosozaemon signature.) Today those prices -- from what I can see -- have doubled. Eventually these too will be even scarcer than they are today and thus more desirable and collectors will leave word with dealers wanting one and soon you won't see them on websites either. It's the market equivalent of the circle of life. In some ways, the market can be both cruel and democratic. But it's always been that way, responsive to trends and ever-shifting tastes of collectors, and kindest to those with the most cash.

Kirill makes an excellent point about the democratization of the market with the internet and how it has impacted collectors’ knowledge and what they buy. In fact, the market is so dominated by the internet that for years some old timers have long predicted the end of sword shows. This has not happened, nor do I expect it to happen any time soon because ultimately I think there is no substitute for being able to see Nihonto in person. And yes, I agree that big money can pretty much buy whatever it wants, and indeed, there are some amazing collections by extremely wealthy collectors that have virtually materialized overnight. But the rich have never wanted, and this has always been true in all areas of collecting long before the internet was even an idea. But the heart of Lukrez’ original question was has the market changed and grown more acute? And is there noticeable lack of high-end pieces around for sale? From I am hearing, if you ask Japanese dealers this question, they would agree that it is probably true. That is not to say there are not top end pieces available. I know of several places online currently offering Rai and Ichimonji blades of various sizes with various papers, a few Juyo Enju, a TokoJu Chogi, several Kanemitsu, a Yukimitsu tanto, and lots of mumei suriage blades from the Kamakura and Nanbokucho attributed to a sundry of decent schools and smiths. Look no further than Katana Hanbai, Tsuruginoya, IIdakoendo and Eirakudo for some top offerings at hefty prices. And yes, some of the best pieces are indeed not put on the website but are held in reserve. But what dealers and folks I know in Japan are saying is that THEY are not seeing the variety, condition and quality they saw even five years ago. I have heard of one new dealer complaining that he was so excited to gain admittance to Japan’s dealers auctions only to find nothing outstanding to buy. Several point to the DTI and say if you compare the 2024 DTI catalogue to those before 2020, you will see a drop in the variety and condition of top swords. Early to middle period Soshu works seem especially difficult to come by compared to a few years back. But finding swords by most top Koto smiths in near perfect condition that are ubu, not machio-kure with one mekugiana is increasingly difficult to run down, and when dealers do get them, they might not them on a website because there is a queue of collectors who have been waiting. Long, flawless katana from Keicho Shinto are also increasingly at a premium. And while there are a great many excellent wakizashi still around, great tantos by great makers in amazing koshirae we once saw all over are increasingly difficult to come by. It doesn’t mean they can’t be found, it’s just not as easy as it once was, dealers say. Given time and wads of cash, they can be run down. Now these great swords weren’t swallowed into a black hole never to be seen again. It seems that many were scooped up in recent years and aren’t coming back on to the market with the same regularity as they used to. Why? Several possible reasons. Maybe because the Yen is so weak, people want to hold on to their treasures because they fear that the cash will be worth less in a year. Maybe because the market is smaller and older, so they don’t see the point. Maybe because they think it is harder to upgrade because they can’t find what they want. In the U.S., we have lost several leading collectors in the last few years, but their collections, by and large, have yet to come to market either because of family disputes over valuations or the time it takes an auction house to photograph and produce a catalogue. Like I said before, it’s all cyclical. So, if you are patient, know what you want, set aside some cash, you are likely – eventually - to find what you want at whatever it is you consider a “fair price.”

Saw him and spent lots of time chatting at Chicago in April.

Yes, it does seem that the quantity and quality of top-tier swords coming on the market is less than it was even a few years ago. I personally think it is cyclical and has much to do with a few new big buyers in the marketplace, and fluctuating currencies and current shinsa pass rates that make some people want to hang on their blades. There are, of course, many other contributing reasons. But I hardly think this is unusual or limited to Nihonto. My own experience is that in every corner of the art and collecting world, dealers will always offer any outstanding work that comes in off the street to their best, well-known (you can read well-heeled) customers. Providing known high rollers directly with what they are looking for saves dealers time and money photographing, cataloging, translating and otherwise promoting the piece. It is a one-click solution for them to a sale. It also keeps existing good wealthy customers happy, and increases the trust that big buyers have in those dealers. So, if you are a customer that only occasionally buys swords in the $2,000 to $10,000 range, it's crazy to expect a dealer to offer you a Tokobetsu Juyo Shizu Kanji for $175k. Why would they? So, there is truth in that many of the best pieces do not make it into the open market, whether that's in brick & mortar stores, the internet or sword shows. Up to 20 years ago, but definitely 30 to 40 years ago, there were diamonds to be found at American guns hows as the kids of GI's started cleaning out the family attic. Many of these were also run of the mill pieces but we know there were many treasures to be had for pennies if you were lucky, knowledgable or had access to reference materials, which back then were few. Often these gems were sold by folks without knowledge for a fraction of what they go for today. But if you are talking about top-tier papered blades today in outstanding condition, you are 100% correct: mere mortals will seldomly - if ever - find these on websites today, and never for what many working folks would consider a "fair price." But again, I don't see that as different from other collectible markets. And yes, Darcy was a magnet for these pieces, and you often saw them posted on his pages, though for big money. But there were also lots of blades and fittings that Darcy got that the public never saw, because they went straight to his top customers who didn't want people out there knowing about them. That said, if you know what you are looking for, and you keep your powder dry, saving your money until you find what you want, there are sometime still great pieces that land on Aoi Art, or Iidakoendo or Shoubudou or Choshuya, or Katana Hanbai or Seiyudo or several other sites. They don't hang around long and are usually offered at higher prices, not cheap but obtainable. My advice is to communicate with dealers that you trust and tell them what you are looking for. Tell them your budget. It has worked for me. Also friends in the hobby can sometimes help you if they know what you want. I have been granted on a few occasions access to swords from the estates of private collections that go straight to dealers. Doesn't happen often but it has happened and I have found pieces I would be hard pressed to find on websites for prices that were achievable for me. Like I said, it's not an everyday occurrence, but then again these artifacts don't exist in those kind of quantities to begin with.

Great result! Congrats!

Please keep your eyes out on government auction sites as often the stolen swords will end up here. A trick that seems to be employed by criminal postal workers and their contractors is that the delivery label is intentionally destroyed and then the package is placed in a bin ready to go to auction. In reality, a package with a damaged label is supposed to go to a special office where it should be inspected to find information about the shipper and/or the recipient so the package can get back on its way. The USPS has 90-days to do this. After that period of time, the package is considered "lost" and becomes the property of the Post Office and can be auctioned. But what we are finding is that the packages end up in bins that are heading for auction in less than 30 days and are picked up by assumed accomplices for a song. You will find police and agencies like the FBI will not touch these cases because the only U.S. law enforcement agency with jurisdiction is the U.S. Postal Inspectors, and from my experience, I have found them to be absolutely not interested in these cases, especially if there is insurance coverage. The other place to keep an eye out for stolen swords is on the Reddit Katana pages as I have discovered that on several occasions the purchaser of the sword from the USPS auction will post stolen blades here, asking for information about the value of the swords for resale. From what I hear from custom brokers and Japanese dealers, these crimes are on the rise and as I said there is zero interest in combating them. When it comes to very very rare and valuable pieces, I urge you to ask the dealers to ship your swords from Japan by UPS. It is more expensive and will almost always involve extra charges for inspections by CBP and Fish and Wildlife inspectors, but in terms of peace of mind, it is money well spent. Hope this helps.

Add to this a growing number of U.S. postal thefts that American law enforcement has no interest in dealing with. Shipping swords by U.S. mail in or out of the country has become increasingly risky. I personally have been hit once and know some who've been hit two and three times. This is not only bad for dealers (all are aware of the problem) but also other artisans in Japan, from polishers to habaki makers. Many collectors I know want to upgrade some of their blades but aren't sending their blades to shinsa, not because of issues with the hombu, but because shipping swords to and from the U.S has become so stressful. This does no favors for the hobby.

I have one that I am willing to part with. Please PM me. Bobby

Putting aside the side issue of Tanobe and "expert panels," (which, BTW, Tanobe oversaw for many, many years while at the NBTHK where he once was the head researcher, ie an "expert,") there is another factor that helps determine blade value: the condition of the nakago, or the tang. Nakago are often overlooked, especially by newbies, but I've seen the value of swords with great workmanship plummet when the nakago was badly deteriorated by water or fire damage, or if it were horribly disfigured by a clumsy shortening process. Likewise, a blade in which the nakago as been "lengthened" by moving the machi up the blade (machi-okuri,) will also impact value. In short, anything that alters the "original vision" of the smith -- reshaping kissaski (sword tip) , changing funbari (blade taper) or shortening the blade -- all can impact the price. That is why among Juyo blades and better, naginata nioshi (naginata that have been reshaped or "corrected" to be a sword) are always more affordable than unaltered Juyo blades by the same smith. Why? Because the changes altered the smith's original vision of the blade. Additionally, what's on the nakago can increase or decrease a blade's value. For example, a blade with the name of the original owner on the nakago can increase a sword's value, even moreso if it was an historical figure. I recall a blade listed on AOI Art a few years back that was a signed Hasebe with an inscription in gold inlay that it once belonged to Tokugawa Ieyasu's father. The blade wasn't on the AOI auction site for but a few hours before it was pulled, presumably by somebody willing to pay way more than the opening bid price because of this incredible information on the tang. In the case of Sue-Bizen smiths, full signatures, called Zokumyo Mei, that include a smith's full name and title, are deemed more desirable than generic smith inscriptions. Thus a blade signed Bizen no Kuni ju Osafune Jirozaemon no Jo Katsumitsu is going to cost you considerably more than a blade signed simply Bishu Osafune Katsumitsu, even if it is papered to Jirozaemon Katsumitsu. Blades with signatures and dates, or nengo, also tend to command higher prices than a blade with just a signature. In fact, the Japanese consider blades with inscriptions such as dates on the ura side of the blade to be "precious." Rarely, the nakago mune can also be inscribed with information, adding to it's allure and price tag. So, just to recap, if you have two katana of equal nagasa and quality by a famed smith such as Echigo Norishige, the one with the original unaltered tango will command a bigger asking price than the one that is suriage, as long as all other things are more or less equal. Likewise, if both are ubu and signed, but one is signed AND dated, that will command more money. The same is true if the signature on one is better than the other because of a water damage nakago. Often it's hard for new collectors to understand why the part of the blade hidden under a handle is so important, but it is. The more you get into the hobby, the more things you learn about why one sword might command a higher asking price than another that is similar. There are many things to think about before you plonk down you hard earned cash on a sword. That said, the reality is not all of us have the resources of Elon Musk, and often we mere mortals have to settle for a blade that is less than perfect because of what we can afford. But at least we can understandn the things that make the difference in the ask, and can even help us understand why one sword was awarded Juyo or Tokubetsu Juyo status and another did not. These things can also help us in negotiating better prices.

Can you share the paper, please? Can you also please share photos of the nakago? Thanks!

I was 24, living in London for my first corporate job. There was a little store near Camden Lock close to where I lived that sold Japanese prints and art. There was an o-suriage wakizashi on the shelf above the cash register. I was shocked to learn it was a real samurai sword and had to have it. The owner joked that I must be very savvy to buy a blade without a signature because it could be a treasure! It's wasn't, but I was thrilled. He sold it to me along with a copy of John Yamato's book. The infection set in almost immediately and it wasn't long before I was at Sotheby's for every Japanese sword auction they had. I was poor back then but I ended up buying my first signed piece with koshirae soon after: a ko-wakizashi by Hida no kami Ujifusa. Now, 40 years later, I still have that blade and many tens of thousands of dollars less because of this hobby. Don't regret a single minute. Thanks for making me walk down memory lane.

No doubt, this practice was done, as were fake orikaeshi mei or folded mei, where a signature from another sword was made to look like it was preserved from a shortened sword and folded over but in fact careful examination will reveal it is pinned in place to deceive a new owner. In short, just like now, when deception might pay off, you have to assume that some folks will try their luck, especially the needy and the unscrupulous. Various old texts mention the practice of all kinds of fakes going back to the Kamakura. How often did this happen? I am not sure anybody has stats on this or if it's even possible to say how common the practice was. The issue of orikaeshi mei and gaku mei are covered in Nobuhara's book, the Fundamentals of Japanese Swords. In the book, because of the possibility of deceit, Nobuhara seems to look down on swords with these signature preservation methods. That said, I think that a sword with a proper, well-executed gaku mei is a thing of beauty. When the work in a blade and a rescued signature match up, I view the effort as an act of respect for the blade to try to preserve the maker's information for the future. I own several swords with gakumei, including an old Sa-School blade, which is one of my favorites, as well as a Juyo Kanemitsu school naginata naioshi with a perfectly folded signature. They tell stories. I think it's slso important to know that the NBTHK regards properly executed gaku mei and orikeshi me as legitimate signatures, unlike a kinpinmei, a signature done in gold lacquer, which is regarded as an appraisal. But as in all things, caveat emptor. Do your homework. If everything checks out, I would never shy away from good sword with such a signature.

Show is sold out with 64 table holders with a few on standby. The Bensons are coming, as is Andy Quit, Moses Beccera, Tim Pippin, Bill Miller, Ed Marshall and others. It should be a great turnout! And then there is the NTHK shinsa! Look forward to seeing many friends!

George, What's your budget? Happy to look out for stuff at the Orlando Show this weekend for you. PM me if interested in an extra pair of eye on the hunt. Best, Bobby