Mushin

To understand what the machine used to compare smiths to painters, the bot gave very interesting explanations for its choices. I think the query I used was something like: "If Japanese sword smiths were compared to famous European painters, which painter would XXXXXXX compare to and why?" The explanations were as interesting as the choices the machine made. For example. with Akihiro it said: "Sōshū Akihiro was a significant figure in the middle Sōshū period, innovating and refining the techniques pioneered by his teacher, Masamune. Similarly, Rubens worked within the Baroque tradition but added his own dramatic flair and dynamic compositions. Both Akihiro and Rubens are recognized as masters who balanced tradition with their individual innovative contributions, leaving a lasting impact on their respective fields. "Akihiro's swords are noted for their boldness and vitality, combining functionality with beauty. His works often feature vibrant hitatsura hamon (full temper) and striking jigane (steel grain), qualities that reflect confidence and dynamism. Rubens’s paintings, like The Descent from the Cross, are similarly bold, with dynamic figures, dramatic movement, and vivid contrasts that draw the viewer's attention." To my mind there was a real effort to explain its choice. And these are only language models. When General AI comes along it will be a whole new ballgame, which is both extremely interesting and concerning all at the same time. Try it out on your own with the maker(s) of your choice. Like I said, it was meant to be just an exercise in fun.

Just for laughs (and to gauge the burgeoning power of Artificial Intelligence language models) I asked ChatGPT to liken several Japanese swordsmiths to famous European painters. Given my Sōshū prejudices, it is limited but IMHO extremely interesting. The list is by no means comprehensive and is in no way intended to be the final word or anything more than it is, an exercise in curiosity. It’s interesting both from the perspective of machine learning as well as program’s cultivation of facts and opinions. The logic ChatGPT gave for each comparison was particularly insightful and well-reasoned, really, though it was all a bit too lengthy to include here. In some ways, I think these comparisons can be especially useful for newbies trying to understand the importance of certain smiths, offering some relatable comparisons. I encourage others to see where this goes just for fun. In the meantime, here is what the bot came up with: Shintōgo Kunimitsu would be likened to Giotto di Bondone Sōshū Yukimitsu would be likened to Claude Monet Saeki Norishige would be likened to Rembrandt van Rijn Gorō Nyūdō Masamune would be likened to Leonardo Da Vinci Hikoshiro Sadamune would be likened to Raphael Chikuzen Samonji would be likened to El Greco Sōshū Hiromitsu would be likened to Titian Sōshū Akihiro would be likened to Peter Paul Rubens Go Yoshihiro would be likened to Michelangleo Awataguchi Yoshimitsu would be likened to Johan van Eyk Bizen Masatsune would be likened to Albrecht Dürer Shizu Saburo Kaneuji would be likened to Michelangelo Buonarroti Sengo Muramasa would be likened to Michelangelo Mersi da Caravaggio Horikawa Kunihiro would be likened to Peter Paul Rubens

Love Jacques, or hate him, you must admit that his statements, assertions and perspectives produce long, and often very interesting threads. Yes, Jacques' bedside manner leaves much to be desired, but the fact is that difficult, smart people often make great teachers, but not for obvious reasons. Just the fact that they force you to reexamine your own beliefs can be a good thing, if not an exhausting exercise.

Lovely work by a wonderful smith. I swear you could make a world class collection of the rejects from the Juyo Shinsa sessions of the last few years. Many excellent pieces have been left on the sidelines, so you are in excellent company.

Member NBTHK-AB

Also for reference: Late Nanbokucho Sue Sa naginata naioshi with rare gakumei of Chikushu ju Yukiyoshi (son of Sa Hiroyuki) with TokuHo papers.

Bradley, feel free to DM me for details about meetups we have in various places around Florida and occasionally near Atlanta.

As I am a huge history buff, I thought some historical background that might help at least with how the school came about. Chikuzen Province, the home of Chikuzen Samonji, a.k.a. O-Sa, or the great Sa, was located on the northern coast of Kyushu. It was the primary landing point for the Mongol forces during their failed invasion attempts, and afterwards became the focus of Japan’s defensive preparations against future Mongol incursions. To this end, the military government in Kamakura established the Chinzei Tandai to oversee and manage military preparations and defenses in Kyushu. The Chinzei Tandai quickly became the central authority for organizing local samurai forces, maintaining fortifications, and ensuring readiness across Kyushu and nearby islands. Walls were built and reinforced. Forces drilled. The area was bristling with warriors ready for the next wave of foreign invaders. This might explain why Sa left Sagami Province where he was supposedly studying with Masamune to set up shop in Ikihama in Chikuzen, and why he had so many students, not least his son and most talented disciple, Sano Yasuyoshi. After Kamakura fell in 1333, and the Nanbokucho started three years later, pitting two rival imperial courts against each other, fears of new invasions slowly began to fade. New internal conflicts brought promises of awards of new lands and titles. The Mongol threat became a memory. At the same time, the realignment of forces during the Nanbokucho created new internal power struggles in southern and western Japan. Those struggles in turn created new demands for sword smiths, and over time some of those smiths started migrating to meet the demand. One of those was Sano Yasuyoshi, O-Sa’s son, who started to work in nearby Aki before relocating to Nagato where he founded the Nagato Sa School, continuing the Sa tradition while incorporating regional influences. Other’s followed suit and overtime the Sa School began to loose its focus as it moved out of its home province. Morihiro is said to have left for Hizen after O-Sa’s death and along with his disciple, Moriyoshi, founded the Hirado Sa school. Another student of some renown, Sano Sadayuki, left Chikuzen and moved across the straights, settling in Aki in the mid-1300s, founding what became known as the Oishi Sa school. (According to some sources, Sadayuki might have later relocated to Hizen and joined the Hirado school.) Some of these schools – which have always been considered minor branches of the Sa tradition – continued into the Muromachi but eventually died out or merged with other schools by the time the Onin War destroyed Kyoto and sent a waves of refugee Yamashiro smiths to Kyushu. While early work from these three "schools" maintained lots of the Soshu influence that Sa brought to Kyushu, over time these faded and later Sa schools showed less nie and hataraki, and the clarity of the steel was not as great in the mainline Sue-Sa schools. Eventually, the work would take on more characteristics of trends that emerged in the Oei period. They would have, of course, forged all manner of blades - long and short, naginata and tanto - to meet demands, but as with so many other schools, smaller blades are most commonly what we see today.

There are a few: John Tirado in PA, Josiah Boomer Boomershine (Brian T's student.) I am sure form members can put you in touch.

What a great and interesting thread. Some great posts here and really awesome observations. I agree with Kirill: there is no clear solution to some of this debate. So much of collecting is like that old saying my mother had: "'It's all of matter of taste,' said the lady after kissing the monkey's bottom." And it is all a matter of taste. There are some obvious agreed on standards and facts, yes, but these shift over time. So, if you believe -- as some die-hard collectors do -- that everything after 1394 is Shinto, then even the most astounding Tadayoshi or Sukehiro or Kotetsu blade will not convince you that the sword is anything more than a nice "newish" folded, sharpened piece of steel. "Cute," as one Ko-Koto enthusiast commented about my Nosada tanto when I showed it to him years ago. On the other hand, if you believe, as some collectors do, that blades without verifiable signatures, are just a blank canvas on to which so-called experts can project their opinions, then nothing without a mei will move you, no matter how stunning the work, because -- as the Asahi Token website says -- "No inscription is no inscription, and it is impossible to determine the author." So - one more cliche - beauty really is in the eye of the beholder. But this thread started out about the market. And the market and taste don't always live in the same neighborhood. So, contrary to the views of Mr. Nakahara (of The Facts and Fundamental's of Japanese Swords, and the Asahi Token website,) a TokuJu O-suriage Ko-Bizen Masatsune Tachi will have no shortage of buyers and will not stay on the market very long, if it even goes to the market in the first place. whereas a good Shodai Tadayoshi might sit around for weeks or longer on a website before it is picked up. This has more to do with the market emotions -- supply and demand, perceived rarity, desirability and exclusivity -- than any comment on quality. And I agree with everybody who says, "collect what you like;" "look for the best condition you can find at your budget;" "buy the sword, not the papers." It is all well and good and true, because collecting is personal. But when the time comes that you might want to sell that piece or trade it for something better, it's is another story entirely. Now you are entering the world of the market. And again, I agree with Kirill: For the marketplace, attribution is quality, attribution is value, top tier papers are both, and that leads us back to the opening question of Lurkez. Since this thread started, I spoke to some dealer/broker friends in the U.S., Europe and Japan and all agree that those amazing pieces from the Kamakura and Nanbokucho like we see in books are becoming harder and harder to find. Many trusted and known collectors are now looking for them and they must put word out that they want them. Then they wait. And when a Juyo Hiromitsu becomes available, it does not go on a website; It is offered at steep prices directly to those collectors who have been waiting, bypassing the open market. This is hardly surprising. Thus, as I said in my earlier posts, yes, Lukrez's observations are largely true. But as the old cliche (God, I am full of them today) goes, "the Market abhors a vacuum." So, when the supply of one commodity runs low, the market looks for the next big thing to fill it, such as works that were previously overlooked or taken for granted, like Ukyo no Suke Katusmitsu, and other top Sue Bizen works. Then lo and behold, prices for Sue Bizen works start to climb and become desirable. Just look at the prices of good Bizen moroha tanto. A few years ago you could pick these up for between $2000 and $8000 (unless it had a zokumyo-mei Yosozaemon signature.) Today those prices -- from what I can see -- have doubled. Eventually these too will be even scarcer than they are today and thus more desirable and collectors will leave word with dealers wanting one and soon you won't see them on websites either. It's the market equivalent of the circle of life. In some ways, the market can be both cruel and democratic. But it's always been that way, responsive to trends and ever-shifting tastes of collectors, and kindest to those with the most cash.

Kirill makes an excellent point about the democratization of the market with the internet and how it has impacted collectors’ knowledge and what they buy. In fact, the market is so dominated by the internet that for years some old timers have long predicted the end of sword shows. This has not happened, nor do I expect it to happen any time soon because ultimately I think there is no substitute for being able to see Nihonto in person. And yes, I agree that big money can pretty much buy whatever it wants, and indeed, there are some amazing collections by extremely wealthy collectors that have virtually materialized overnight. But the rich have never wanted, and this has always been true in all areas of collecting long before the internet was even an idea. But the heart of Lukrez’ original question was has the market changed and grown more acute? And is there noticeable lack of high-end pieces around for sale? From I am hearing, if you ask Japanese dealers this question, they would agree that it is probably true. That is not to say there are not top end pieces available. I know of several places online currently offering Rai and Ichimonji blades of various sizes with various papers, a few Juyo Enju, a TokoJu Chogi, several Kanemitsu, a Yukimitsu tanto, and lots of mumei suriage blades from the Kamakura and Nanbokucho attributed to a sundry of decent schools and smiths. Look no further than Katana Hanbai, Tsuruginoya, IIdakoendo and Eirakudo for some top offerings at hefty prices. And yes, some of the best pieces are indeed not put on the website but are held in reserve. But what dealers and folks I know in Japan are saying is that THEY are not seeing the variety, condition and quality they saw even five years ago. I have heard of one new dealer complaining that he was so excited to gain admittance to Japan’s dealers auctions only to find nothing outstanding to buy. Several point to the DTI and say if you compare the 2024 DTI catalogue to those before 2020, you will see a drop in the variety and condition of top swords. Early to middle period Soshu works seem especially difficult to come by compared to a few years back. But finding swords by most top Koto smiths in near perfect condition that are ubu, not machio-kure with one mekugiana is increasingly difficult to run down, and when dealers do get them, they might not them on a website because there is a queue of collectors who have been waiting. Long, flawless katana from Keicho Shinto are also increasingly at a premium. And while there are a great many excellent wakizashi still around, great tantos by great makers in amazing koshirae we once saw all over are increasingly difficult to come by. It doesn’t mean they can’t be found, it’s just not as easy as it once was, dealers say. Given time and wads of cash, they can be run down. Now these great swords weren’t swallowed into a black hole never to be seen again. It seems that many were scooped up in recent years and aren’t coming back on to the market with the same regularity as they used to. Why? Several possible reasons. Maybe because the Yen is so weak, people want to hold on to their treasures because they fear that the cash will be worth less in a year. Maybe because the market is smaller and older, so they don’t see the point. Maybe because they think it is harder to upgrade because they can’t find what they want. In the U.S., we have lost several leading collectors in the last few years, but their collections, by and large, have yet to come to market either because of family disputes over valuations or the time it takes an auction house to photograph and produce a catalogue. Like I said before, it’s all cyclical. So, if you are patient, know what you want, set aside some cash, you are likely – eventually - to find what you want at whatever it is you consider a “fair price.”

Saw him and spent lots of time chatting at Chicago in April.

Yes, it does seem that the quantity and quality of top-tier swords coming on the market is less than it was even a few years ago. I personally think it is cyclical and has much to do with a few new big buyers in the marketplace, and fluctuating currencies and current shinsa pass rates that make some people want to hang on their blades. There are, of course, many other contributing reasons. But I hardly think this is unusual or limited to Nihonto. My own experience is that in every corner of the art and collecting world, dealers will always offer any outstanding work that comes in off the street to their best, well-known (you can read well-heeled) customers. Providing known high rollers directly with what they are looking for saves dealers time and money photographing, cataloging, translating and otherwise promoting the piece. It is a one-click solution for them to a sale. It also keeps existing good wealthy customers happy, and increases the trust that big buyers have in those dealers. So, if you are a customer that only occasionally buys swords in the $2,000 to $10,000 range, it's crazy to expect a dealer to offer you a Tokobetsu Juyo Shizu Kanji for $175k. Why would they? So, there is truth in that many of the best pieces do not make it into the open market, whether that's in brick & mortar stores, the internet or sword shows. Up to 20 years ago, but definitely 30 to 40 years ago, there were diamonds to be found at American guns hows as the kids of GI's started cleaning out the family attic. Many of these were also run of the mill pieces but we know there were many treasures to be had for pennies if you were lucky, knowledgable or had access to reference materials, which back then were few. Often these gems were sold by folks without knowledge for a fraction of what they go for today. But if you are talking about top-tier papered blades today in outstanding condition, you are 100% correct: mere mortals will seldomly - if ever - find these on websites today, and never for what many working folks would consider a "fair price." But again, I don't see that as different from other collectible markets. And yes, Darcy was a magnet for these pieces, and you often saw them posted on his pages, though for big money. But there were also lots of blades and fittings that Darcy got that the public never saw, because they went straight to his top customers who didn't want people out there knowing about them. That said, if you know what you are looking for, and you keep your powder dry, saving your money until you find what you want, there are sometime still great pieces that land on Aoi Art, or Iidakoendo or Shoubudou or Choshuya, or Katana Hanbai or Seiyudo or several other sites. They don't hang around long and are usually offered at higher prices, not cheap but obtainable. My advice is to communicate with dealers that you trust and tell them what you are looking for. Tell them your budget. It has worked for me. Also friends in the hobby can sometimes help you if they know what you want. I have been granted on a few occasions access to swords from the estates of private collections that go straight to dealers. Doesn't happen often but it has happened and I have found pieces I would be hard pressed to find on websites for prices that were achievable for me. Like I said, it's not an everyday occurrence, but then again these artifacts don't exist in those kind of quantities to begin with.

Great result! Congrats!

Please keep your eyes out on government auction sites as often the stolen swords will end up here. A trick that seems to be employed by criminal postal workers and their contractors is that the delivery label is intentionally destroyed and then the package is placed in a bin ready to go to auction. In reality, a package with a damaged label is supposed to go to a special office where it should be inspected to find information about the shipper and/or the recipient so the package can get back on its way. The USPS has 90-days to do this. After that period of time, the package is considered "lost" and becomes the property of the Post Office and can be auctioned. But what we are finding is that the packages end up in bins that are heading for auction in less than 30 days and are picked up by assumed accomplices for a song. You will find police and agencies like the FBI will not touch these cases because the only U.S. law enforcement agency with jurisdiction is the U.S. Postal Inspectors, and from my experience, I have found them to be absolutely not interested in these cases, especially if there is insurance coverage. The other place to keep an eye out for stolen swords is on the Reddit Katana pages as I have discovered that on several occasions the purchaser of the sword from the USPS auction will post stolen blades here, asking for information about the value of the swords for resale. From what I hear from custom brokers and Japanese dealers, these crimes are on the rise and as I said there is zero interest in combating them. When it comes to very very rare and valuable pieces, I urge you to ask the dealers to ship your swords from Japan by UPS. It is more expensive and will almost always involve extra charges for inspections by CBP and Fish and Wildlife inspectors, but in terms of peace of mind, it is money well spent. Hope this helps.