Lots to unpack here. I didn’t want the thread to devolve into a guessing game as to why the dealer did this or didn’t do that. I can only talk about my motivations and why I decided to take a punt.
Call it an academic endeavour to test the knowledge I’ve gained over the past year, as well as an opportunity to possibly advance the current state of study for an important smith/school. I’ve been lucky to have in hand multiple Juyo and TJ blades and this has given me a modicum of confidence to be able to make some educated guesses. In no way do I consider myself an expert and never claimed has such. But I can read, have access to bodies of knowledge (new and old) and the type of work I do has given me a systematic and investigative approach to a problem. I also trust Ray’s knowledge and experience and if he saw enough in the blade to make an offer, that gives me some sense I wasn’t completely off piste.
I didn’t jump in blindly. I even posted a thread last October asking about the Mei and included pictures of the blade. At this point I was still on the fence but at least I had confirmation the sugata was typical for the Kamakura era in accordance with examples in Nagayama's book.
It was only after reviewing the kantei Shintogo Kunimitsu tanto’s in Sesko’s Kotozen HC that really convinced me to continue the chase. Ignoring the shape of the nakago and obviously the different style for the Mei (form and carving), the 1306 tanto was, from my perspective, the twin of this blade. The length of nagasa, style of nakago, the mune shape, the koshi-bi horimono, the yakikomi, the finely executed suguha hamon, the style of boshi etc. These are all features found on blades from the Shodei's workshop. Way too much of a coincidence not to take it seriously. It was only the post in this thread showing Tanobe sensei’s discussion of the 1306 blade and his statement that the ‘Mitsu’ kanji was atypical that I wasn’t aware of until now.
However it's accepted that daimei-daisaku blades for Kunimitsu exist, as is his sons signing Kunimitsu in an atypical style, in later years, when working independently. The Horyu papers also strengthened my conviction that I should proceed. I saw enough in the blade itself to give it another chance. Many examples of Horyu eventually passing on subsequent submissions and blades getting a different attribution, sometimes a better one, after a sympathetic polish. Obviously the stakes are a lot higher with a name like Kunimitsu but the Shinsa committee can only judge whats in front of them and this tanto is still hiding its secrets. They are not infallible. For example I don’t understand why Tanobe says the 1306 Kunimitsu could not have been made by one of his sons due to their young age, because that year Kunihiro would have been 33.
All of these question marks and uncertainties make this an even more exciting project. An ubu Kamakura era tanto is a rarity in and of itself. What is clear is that a window must be opened up to expose the jiba. Once that visual piece of the puzzle is available then I should have a good idea where I stand. I might even get it in front of the NTHK and see what they think before resubmitting to the NBTHK. Tanobe will certainly be consulted.
Best case scenario it will test the current Zeitgeist for Kunimitsu and body of production from his workshop. If the quality of the jiba is up to Kunimitsu standard I’m hoping it will be accepted as another example of an atelier (daisaku) piece by an apprentice or daimei. This would connect the 1306 and 1308 tanto’s, both with their atypical Mei.
If the quality of the forging points in another direction I will reset and decide what to do next. As Alex said the money has been spent but I paid a low enough price (for me), that I’m happy whatever the outcome. The journey will have made it all the more, a worthwhile academic experience.