Curran

John- Have fun at the DTI. Plans are to attend in 2014 and visit my host family. Perhaps not on swords, but Tokubetsu Hozon quality kodogu (including those with only Hozon) seem to be inflating in price. This: http://www.tsuruginoya.com/mn1_3/f00208.html came up a few days ago. It is a particularly fine example of the 5th gen... mind you... the 5th gen. It went off at prices about 2x of what it could have been bought a few years ago before Abe economics kicked in. Papered Nobuiye are also starting to go off at about 2x of a few years ago. Only what was Ichiban during the 1980s seems to be staying soft: Goto and Ko-Mino. Everything else seems to be ticking up like the long slumbering Las Vegas real estate market. Kinda disturbing to those of us who were hoping the USD would get stronger so we could buy things cheaper, but there was a brief window of opportunity. I capitalized on it a bit with a fine TH Hirata and TH Kanshiro tsuba purchase, but not enough. Curran Ps: I've been trying for a decade now to pick up a good papered gold n shakudo ko-mino tsuba, since I let one get away from me at $3500. It looked like a slightly better version of this one: http://www.premi.co.jp/ts-komino-kikuha ... 30611.html This seller has it labeled as ko-mino, but papers say Mino tipping the hat to early Edo. Still, he's asking over $10,000. If you can find me a better papered "ko-mino" sub $5000-6000 at the DTI, by all means please send me pictures. I may be smoking crack to think I can get one that cheap now that Abeconomics is fueling things.

I must agree with Henk-jan. That seems to be the primary factor. The Shikkake Juyo that sold for 22.5k last year was Pristine. Beautiful. Sold cheap. Yet a Naotsuna that I would not have guessed to clear the 30k mark cleared over 100k. Sure there is a financial nuclear bomb in the room set to go off later this month. Yes, defusing it is as easy as cutting either the Red or Blue wire (no 'wrong' choice there), but the Red and Blue of Congress are slugging it out over which one is right....keeping each other from that important act. The partisan feuding is such that the bomb might actually go off, though Congress must be officially braindead to allow that to happen. Still, the threat of it might make this auction a bargain hunting one. The post 9/11 Sept 2001 Sotheby's NYC Japan auction was all but absent of international buyers. USA bargain hunters picked it apart, as Sotheby's just gave up and let much of it go at 50 to 60 cents on the USD. Just like this auction, there was a large library break-up of two lots. I believe it went to a smiling New York collector. John Prough dragged me to the preview, and it was bargain central for some of the smart older guys. Several of John's best blades came from that sale. Is the October 8th sale going to be in the same vein? I don't know. I admit I've always wanted a decent kabuto, but they seem increasingly scarce in the USA. I might bargain bottom buy in that area. Also, there are a few other things I want to see.

Arnold- No. Not joking at all. As you said, it is "risk free", yet your basis for this discussion is about it no longer being risk free. Who holds the largest share of our debt, and why are they working so diligently to develop alternative exchanges for everything possible to circumvent the USD? Mind you, QE Infinity is a lovely way to poke them in the eye and leave them smiling at the same time. Bottom buying the Aussie, Loonie, and Swiss Franc have been easy trades. Especially the Swiss if it comes unpegged. ~~~ Can we agree Black Swan = 3.5 to 4 standard deviations? Even if we say just 3 standard deviations, I don't really need to address the black swan for the 99%. Our clients are the top 1-2% and they had a nuclear suntan from Oct 9th, 2008. 5 year anniversary right around the corner. Since then clients have been wanting belt and suspenders protection. We've regularly gone out and bought it. The way to hedge congressional idiocy in terms of US debt is a particularly easy hedge. What % haircut do you think the 20 Year bond would get if Congress screwed the pooch? Multiply that by about 10x, and that is the return our clients would make. That is if I don't add a bit of a VIX trade on top of that. The world might burn, but the rich would suddenly get much richer this time around. Congress couldn't steal from the poor and give to the rich any faster short of just giving over the keys to the printing presses. When something like this is so visible to a greater percent of the population and they load up on protection... it isn't really your 4 standard deviation event anymore. It isn't the Paulson bet, eclipsing the Soros bet breaking the bank of England in 1992. It seems even Boehner understands. Could it happen? Yes. If it does and you are a US citizen that isn't one of our clients, then burning the appropriate congressmen at the stake might also be a fun Fall activity.

Arnold, Sort of a Miller & Modigliani circular argument is it not? In Warren Buffett speak: be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. Though quite the fan of Art, I have long advised against the Art allocation many of the wealthy are told to embrace. However, holding a non USD denominated Art with increasing international appeal is *not* a bad thing at the moment. The debt issue and topics like the 1 Trillion dollar coin are all interesting. It gets a double dose of fear mongering in the 24/7 media. Is it a black swan? Well, I can confidently say the 1% I deal with are very well hedged. It wouldn't be a John Paulson subprime mortgage sized bet for them, but they'd have a very _VERY_ good year.

By most of the 1980s, it was the Hozon and Tokubetsu Hozon system. The green papers of suspicion were largely from the late 1970s and the majority (or all) from non Tokyo branches of the NBTHK. Kunitaro-san or others can be more accurate in explaining. ~~~Also, as I've said before in another post a while back, the whole Fear The Green Papers thing often backfires with Kodogu. Sure, be cautious with signed big name pieces with green papers, but many a green papered 'Akasaka' or 'Nishigaki' tsuba now comes back with more specific ie Better attributions to Nidai Tadamasa, Sandai Tadatora, or Kanshiro. The full understanding and more papering of kodogu seems to have lagged swords by a few decades. Wakayama's 3 vol set didn't get published until the late 1970s. ~~~Sometimes it is absurd:In late 2009 a collection popped out of the woodwork with no ceremony at auction. All had old early 1970s green papers. The first round of Jingo & Hayashi went for penny on the USD because everyone hesitated. By the 3rd and 4th round Ito-san & others were slugging it out up to and past $10000 for some of the shodai, nidai, and a few other exceptional tsuba. Truly some unique and rare ones in there, but the initial green paper reaction kept everyone but the brave away the first round. Big name swords with green papers... yeah, pause. Kodogu is a different story for various reasons including economics and knowledge base of the 1970s.

+1

You are not kidding. Think that one met with a machine gun barrel and failed to live up to the mythology.

Got the print catalog too and see the Mancabelli lecture. Noted that several of the armor were formerly on display at the Fraiser Museum. Thought I recognized them. Looking forward to seeing them in person, if family life allows. There are several items where the photography is wanting a bit. ie. Either only 1 photo, or item is upside down, or only the back of the item is shown. Would recommend the on-line catalog over the print one.

Still trying to coordinate trip up to NYC with some other business & family responsibilities. Anyone going Sunday or Monday willing to take a look at that Naoe Shizu for me and tell me if there are any distinct problems/deal killers? Estimate on it seems low compared to what it would cost nowadays. That is what a decent TH one cost about 10 years ago.

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I am guessing a bit, but believe the Arkansas collector is probably a very alive and kicking man with one of the finest collections in the USA. An incredible signed ubu healthy straight to Tokubetsu Juyo (yes, such things exist... H, TH, J, TJ all on first try from non Japanese owner) probably went there recently- thus is easy to believe he is letting some go. He has that sort of collection, and his not alone in the USA. Do not know the Texas gentleman and can only guess the Florida gentleman or Florida couple is from north of here. However, I do not see some of the blades I know he(they) have. Therefore, I could be wrong. As a retirement state, many of our collectors are in their golden years.

John-- Pssh. Most of your readings are better than mine. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then, so it is that I know a few of the other readings on some of the big names.

Answer: No. Not even within 20 leagues. You could pick almost any other sword out there and it would be a closer hit with yours. Edit: Oops. Put foot in mouth and now tasting my ankle. After the Shizu, Masazane, and quite a few others. Thanks Chris. Apology too to Deansova.

Love this artist's work. Often incredible stuff. 1st gen and 6th gen really bookended the school. The generations inbetween were more milktoast.

Trying to arrange to be in NYC that week. Knowing some of the estates several some of these items are coming from, there are two or three blades I hoped to see and are not in the auction.

#3: agree with John #4: Umetada Myoju (as in the really famous guy) --Odds are heavy that this is a gimei, but haven't checked Wakayama For comparison, see: http://www.seiyudo.com/tu-08081.htm Papered uninspired one with a forging flaw. Compare signature against it. Ps. Sorry for being MIA- had "all hands on deck" work week, and then 3 days of torrential rains and flooding. Got a lot of repairs to do. Can't wait until FL wet season is over.

Best viewed in person, but Bonhams has upped the photography to a very high level. Estimates are just estimates. There was a Juyo Shikkake katana last year that was estimated 30-40k. One of the most beautiful I'd ever seen. I was there all 3 days of the viewing and kept going back to it, back and back.... But didn't have $40k liquid, which I thought rich even for a nice one. Auction was on a weekend, so I decided to go. THey started the bidding on the Shikkake at 15k? Holy Crap. Really? Bidding can go fast, and I expected it to blur up to 30k. My paddle is under my jacket on the chair next to me. No.... in the next 15 to 20 seconds.... it went for $22.5K. I was so friggin stunned that my brain went cold for a minute and I couldn't believe I'd just missed such a stellar Juyo for what I would expect to pay $35k to $39k for in Japan. Really....stunned in my chair feeling like I'd just dropped the ball in game 7 of the World Series. Of course, then a Juyo Naotsuna went off for 3 times what I would have paid for it..... There were some other bargains in there too.... but that Shikkake will haunt me for a while. I've got a few busy weeks ahead, but am trying to get up to NYC for the previews. Even if none of the swords interest, it is the most armor I've seen in a while and I recognize a few from museum exhibits.

Forget not that now many of Yahoo!Japan sellers are professional dealers. Visit enough websites and you will recognize items over time. Also, seems perfectly fine for many of the dealers to shill their own auctions and pull them with only a few seconds left if not happy with the price. "Tortise", "Megatora" & "Fuji5005" (he has multiple Fuji IDs), and a few others have made it a rigged auction. And forget not the sellers who bid up in increments of 100 yen to price discover what your maximum bid is... So you bid once on something and someone else bids 57 times to push it up to your max and then suddenly stops. Yahoo!Japan auctions are a lot more dangerous now than they once were. The 3rd party fees make it mostly a losing game now.

James, That Hazama you linked to is very nice and very valuable. This shape seems to be popular there. Yours is ko-kinko, but a very nice example that I think a bit elegant in how the ridge makes a bowl of the waves. The wax/clay - Don't clean it. You'll regret it for a long time, if not handled right. It will stare out at you as a cleaned spot, unless done very minimally. I sent you a PM about it, as I enjoy wave theme items. Over the last two years, I have definitely learned the trials and pitfalls of trying to clean the waves. Careful....

I wondered who snagged that one. Geez Pete, leave some good stuff for the rest of us.

If we're counting, I agree with Pete. Wouldn't touch it. Pete worded it better than I could. Envy the purchase. Focusing elsewhere in my study and collecting, but desire a top level ko-mino tsuba some day. It is perhaps a bit more realistic than my far future acquisition of an elegant Tokubetsu Juyo grade Sadamune tanto. Pete- while we have your attention... any comment on those half dozen Juyo Kodogu up on Yahoo!Japan right now? It is beyond my non-Google translation ability to translate how the bidding on them works. Not that I'd even try, as aforementioned Nihonto bills loom Oct. 1st and Dec. 1st.

I was seriously considering buying this. Trying to behave, as have lots of expenses coming up. Glad it went to a great home.

Some compression on the kinko face. Iron will be difficult to clean unless person is very experienced. Makes me tired just contemplating the work involved. Not a design I remember seeing in an iron f/k. Most interesting. As Junichi said, I'm just commenting on the work before touching a book to consider the signature.

Had a few things in the June shinsa. Haven't heard anything. Results are out yet?

Good post by Frenzel-san. Difficult topic.